Time for a worked example. Let's see if we can find a storm that hit
high on the SF scale and a phase similar to today's:

1st. December 2007 Second (or Last) Quarter 12:44.
So we want a phase at about quarter to one am or pm. How about last
July/August:
30th July 2007. Full Moon 00:48.
Then there was 11th September 12:44 that was bang on only nearer an
equinox than a solstice (not that I know what difference that makes.)

See also 28th February, last year; 2nd April and 16th November 2005;

30th July to 5th August 2007. (7/30 - 8/5 in American. Splendid
resources, ghastly calendar.)

11th to 19th.September 2007. (9/11 - 19.)

YAGI 17th to 24th Category 5 NWPacific.

HELENE 12th to 24th Category 3 Atlantic.

04A-06 21st to 22nd. Tropical Storm N Indian.

GORDON 10th to 20th. Category 3. Atlantic

The time of this spell is a wet one. It will also produce or tend to
produce hurricanes in the North Atlantic Season. But with a strong set
of tropical cyclones running through it it will produce weather
similar to that which we had in the middle of last September; which if
my calculations are correct thundery with a touch of the tornadic.

Unfortunately I can't remember the weather that far back, so I have to
throw myself on the Kommittee to preserve the status quo:

http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...4bb55b4be5bf3f

After 6.8 M. in Columbia there was an 8.2 in Indonesia. We have just
had a 7.4 in South America so I suppose we can start looking forward
to something dreadful in Indonesia or its environs?

http://groups.google.com/group/sci.g...7-9?scoring=d&

On Nov 30, 12:23 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

After 6.8 M. in Columbia there was an 8.2 in Indonesia. We have just
had a 7.4 in South America so I suppose we can start looking forward
to something dreadful in Indonesia or its environs?

http://groups.google.com/group/sci.g...se_frm/month/2...

Since there was a severe quake around then and there is another due
about the time covered in this post, it isn't worth printing the ones
dealing with the forecasts for the start of this spell:
From: Darren Prescott Sep 11, 4:53 am
Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather
Date: Tue, 11 Sep 2007 05:53:40 +0100

Subject: Today's model interpretation (11/09/07)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Saturday.
Issued 0552z, 11th September 2007

There are signs of a change today.

[I'll bet!]

Towards the end of this week the
jetstream will sink southwards and thus we'll lose the persistent
ridge
we've had for a couple of weeks. It's likely that Saturday will still
be dry
for much of the UK (the north of Scotland perhaps being an exception),
while
Sunday is likely to see cloud and rain pushing in from the west in
association with an Atlantic low. Thereafter low pressure looks like
staying
close to the UK, driven on by a more southerly jet than of late. All
areas
will see more in the way of wind and rain than of late.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS [the links to the charts are
updated every so many hours, so no use reprinting them.]

Best day of the summer here!

[The OP was deleted but I responded with a merry quip as per usual:]

nospambtinternet.com wrote: Luvveerrrly day here in Devon too.; ....
we had a morning fog which means that someone else ...[Told you!]
Sep 12 by Weatherlawyer

Len. "Dave Cornwell"
wrote in message
.uk... In my
opinion today has
been the best of the summer this year. Clear blue skies all day,
fresh air with
a temperature of 21C. Wonderful. NOw it's arrived it's going to
leave! ...
Sep 12 by GKN - 6 messages - 5 authors
read the rest for yourself:
http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...rch+this+group

More links he
http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...start=500&sa=N

On Nov 30, 12:15 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Time for a worked example. Let's see if we can find a storm that hit
high on the SF scale and a phase similar to today's:

1st. December 2007 Second (or Last) Quarter 12:44.
So we want a phase at about quarter to one am or pm. How about last
July/August:
30th July 2007. Full Moon 00:48.
Then there was 11th September 12:44 that was bang on only nearer an
equinox than a solstice (not that I know what difference that makes.)

See also 28th February, last year; 2nd April and 16th November 2005;

30th July to 5th August 2007. (7/30 - 8/5 in American. Splendid
resources, ghastly calendar.)

11th to 19th.September 2007. (9/11 - 19.)

YAGI 17th to 24th Category 5 NWPacific.

HELENE 12th to 24th Category 3 Atlantic.

04A-06 21st to 22nd. Tropical Storm N Indian.

GORDON 10th to 20th. Category 3. Atlantic

The time of this spell is a wet one. It will also produce or tend to
produce hurricanes in the North Atlantic Season.

Background noise is only slightly above average with more than 3 or 4
earthquakes in the 5.5M range. This is allowing the lunar phase to do
its job properly and supply us with British winter weather that is not
too cold but is very wet.

2007/12/02
5.5 Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia

2007/12/01
5.1 Tonga
5.3 Java, Indonesia
5.0 Luzon, Philippines
5.1 Southern Sumatra, Indonesia
5.0 Southern Sumatra, Indonesia
5.1 Fiji region
5.0 Bonin Islands, Japan region
5.3 Macquarie Island region
5.9 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia

2007/11/30
5.1 Martinique region, Windward Islands
5.2 Solomon Islands

Updated 3rd Dec. '07 - 14.40 UTC.

PREDICTION Dt. 2nd & 3rd Dec.'07

Overcast and just 50 & 30% sunshine days.

Inspite of the above, if the registered reading was correct
Suspect around 6 to 8M quake over

OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA (3.30N 95.78E)

and around 5 to 6+M quakes over

MARIANA ISLANDS (12.98N 144.80E) - SOUTHERN SUMATERA (3.0S 100.5E)
SOUTHWESTERN PAKISTAN (25.1N 63.1E) - EASTERN KASHMIR (35.3N 76.5E)
TAIWAN REGION (24.9N 122.3E) - PHILIPPINE ISLANDS (19.5N 121.2E)
SOUTHERN IRAN (26.9N 58.2E) - BURU, INDONESIA (3.8S 126.2E)

may occur within next 48 to 380 hours from 04.30 UTC on 2nd Dec. 2007.

http://earthquake.itgo.com/today.htm

Considering this chap only uses his data on a wall that has a steel
ladder attached to the concrete base and to the top of the wall, he
gets some amazing results.

Apart from the location of course his prediction is about the same as
mine. It could also be argued that apart from my tie-ins with storms,
the method is not that different.

We both use a form of anomalous astrometric behaviour. And that of
course puts us both in the same group with a certain Piers Corbyn.

Mr Shanmugasundaram could get bewtter results if he included data from
previous typhoons and similar storms that occur in the region he
watches over.

Well it poured down here, last night. Still going too but not so
strongly. The forecasts are fro a stormy night though the rain will
ease back during the day.

I wonder what is happening in warmer climes.

I do not like this weather, warm though it be. But one good thing in
its favour is that I am relatively clear of pain in it. That's the
price of being a rain god I suppose!

How depressing.

When the time of the phase is nearly 1 o'clock, there is no major
tropical storm and the earthquakes occurring were not much more than
5.5 M., the weather here should be wet.

And it is.

If there was a tropical storm (of say, 4F on the Saffir Simpson scale)
the weather here would be almost the same as if the time of the phase
was 08:44 or 20:44.

Which times I am not all that sure about. But there is what the
British Code Breakers of Bletchley Park would call a crib:
http://www.gchq.gov.uk/about/bletchley.html

My "crib" is to compare the time of phased with this table:
http://sunearth.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclips...se2001gmt.html and see
if any of the times match. These are some that do:

2001.

16 Jan 12:35

24 Jan 13:07

8 Nov 12:21


2002.

20 Apr 12:48

18 Jun 00:29


2003.

10 Jan 13:15

23 Apr 12:18

1 May 12:15

23 May 00:31

20 Aug 00:48

3 Sept 12:34

18 Oct 12:31

25 Oct 12:50

9 Nov 01:14


2004.

28 Sept 13:09

5 Dec 00:53


2005.

2 Apr 00:50

17 Oct 12:14

25 Oct 01:17

16 Nov 00:58


2006

28 Feb 00:31

14 Oct 00:25

5 Nov 12:58


2007.

11 Jan 12:45

1 Jun 01:04

22 Jun 13:15

30 Jul 00:48

11 Sept 12:44

1 Dec 12:44

24 Dec 01:16

Obviously, the best matches are the ones that occur at the same time
of year and closest to the time.

This is the "crib". You just match the dates with these storms:
http://www.gdacs.org/cyclones/

They tell you which kind of pattern is going to hold. It is virtually
an open book. What could be easier?

On Dec 5, 6:54 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Well it poured down here, last night. Still going too but not so
strongly. The forecasts are fro a stormy night though the rain will
ease back during the day.

I wonder what is happening in warmer climes.

I do not like this weather, warm though it be. But one good thing in
its favour is that I am relatively clear of pain in it. That's the
price of being a rain god I suppose!

How depressing.

Still heavy rain over here.

Things look set to change as out of nowhere Daman reaches 70 Knot wind
speeds and climbing. Currently 175 East (of Australia) it is slated to
run through Fiji at 80 knots in a couple of days.
http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/sh0508.gif

On Dec 5, 11:44 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

When the time of the phase is nearly 1 o'clock, there is no major
tropical storm and the earthquakes occurring were not much more than
5.5 M., the weather here should be wet.

If there was a tropical storm (of say, 4F on the Saffir Simpson scale)

Things would be different. But by how much?

My "crib" is to compare the time of phased with this table:http://sunearth..gsfc.nasa.gov/eclip...001gmt.htmland see
if any of the times match. These are some that do:

Obviously, the best matches are the ones that occur at the same time
of year and closest to the time.

Now to get the declinations from:
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Solar

Note: Some years the moon travels 26 and more degrees both north and
south of the equator over a period of about 4 weeks. That means on any
of the following 6 to 9 day periods, the moon moves on average, some
52/7 degrees.

However the nearer it gets to the equator the faster it moves and it
has a tdc and bdc where it seems to hang in the sky:

http://bible.cc/joshua/10-13.htm. I can't say there is anything but a
broad spectrum in the declinations, but would it be otherwise?

The potency of typhoons and hurricanes is not affected but I have no
doubt that all it affects is the timing within each particular spell.
All I lack is proof.

2001.

16 to 24 January with the Second Quarter at: 12:35.
The lunar declination went from: -6° to: -20° in that time. (14
degrees)

24 January to 1 February with the New Moon at 13:07.
The lunar declination went from: -20° to: +11° in that time. (31
degrees)

8 November to 15 November. Second or Last Quarter 12:21.
The lunar declination went from: +19° to: -17° in that time. (36
degrees.)

2002.

Almost missed this one:
27 December to 2 January 2003 and another Last Quarter: 00:31.
The lunar declination went from: -1° to: -25° in that time. (24
degrees.)

2003.

10 to 18 January 13:15.
The lunar declination went from: +4° to: +24° in that time. (20
degrees.)

18 to 25 October, Second Quarter: 12:31.
The lunar declination went from: +25° to: -11° in that time. (36
degrees.)

25 October to 1 November, New Moon: 12:50.
The lunar declination went from: -11° to: -21° in that time. (10
degrees.)

9 to 17 November, First Quarter: 01:14.
The lunar declination went from: +18° to: +16° in that time. (18
degrees -going through 26 degrees north max..)

2004.

5 to 12 December, Second Quarter: 00:53.
The lunar declination went from: +6° to: -27° in that time. (33
degrees.)

2005.

This is close, so I will leave it in to get a cross reference with the
beginning of the North Atlantic season:
2 to 8 April, New Moon: 00:50

The lunar declination went from: -27° to: +5° in that time. (32
degrees. The solar declinations is around 6 degrees North.)

25 October to 2 November, Second Quarter: 01:17.
The lunar declination went from: +22° to: -19° in that time. (41
degrees.)

16 to 23 November Full Moon: 00:58; makes a change from Second quarter
and New Moon.
The lunar declination went from: +24° to: +15° in that time. (18
degrees.)

2006.

28 February to 6 March, New Moon, 00:31.
The lunar declination went from: -5° to: +27° in that time. (32
degrees.)

14 to 22 October, Second Quarter: 00:25.
The lunar declination went from: +24° to: -15° in that time. (39
degrees.)

5 to 12 November, Full Moon: 12:58.
The lunar declination went from: +19° to: +17° in that time. (18
degrees.)

2007.

11 to 19 January, Second Quarter: 12:45.
The lunar declination went from: -11° to: -22° in that time. (21
degrees.)

1 to 9 December, Second Quarter: 12:44.
The lunar declination went from: +7° to: -27° in that time. (32
degrees.)

24 to 31 December, Full Moon: 01:16.
The lunar declination went from: +26° to: -8° in that time. (34
degrees.)

Interesting which phases are involved in the above. I wonder if it
just coincidence?

This is the "crib". You just match the dates with these storms
:http://www.gdacs.org/cyclones/

They tell you which kind of pattern is going to hold. It is virtually
an open book. What could be easier?

On Dec 6, 8:49 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Still heavy rain over here.

It might be wishful thinking but I get the impression the rain has
eased back a little today.

Things look set to change as out of nowhere Daman reaches 70 Knot wind
speeds and climbing. Currently 175 East (of Australia) it is slated to
run through Fiji at 80 knots in a couple of days.

95 knots today but fortunately skirted to the east of Fiji.
http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/sh0508.gif

Significant seismic activity in the Philippines -after you know what
last week.

Daman is almost a Cat., 3 on the Saffir Simpson scale. So we should be
getting...

Let's see: 3 from 1 is 10 and I still can't do them so let's take 4:
9. Thundery weather. Or maybe tornadic?

So that would make 10 more like your very unstable, unstable spell
with ridges, cols and troughs going from humid, warm, calm weather to
anticyclonic.

Or basically, putting it another way,

I have no idea.

..

..

But I am willing to learn.