On Dec 8, 6:12 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Dec 7, 5:26 am, "Darren Prescott" wrote:

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Tuesday.
Issued 0523, 7th December 2007

A change is on the way, with pressure rising markedly over the UK and, more
notably, over Scandinavia. Tuesday is the transition day, as pressure builds
strongly across the UK.

Actually, the transition starts tomorrow if not today as the spell for
the next phase is introduced.

There's likely to be some rain for northern and
western areas and that applies for the rest of the week too, as frontal
systems attempt to move in from the west. There's considerable disagreement
about the positioning and intensity of the high to the east or NE, with
SE'lies or easterlies more likely than NE'lies. Despite the possible
southerly component, it won't be as warm as it has been recently for the
bulk of the UK, with the possible exception of the NW of Scotland.

Anticyclonic to the west, probably the wrong side of the Mid Atlantic
Ridge, leaving conditions in Europe to dominate:

9th December 17:40.http://sunearth.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclips...se2001gmt.html

Dominate discussions and the hopeful fretting, that is.
It is a confused spell -or one that condemns me to perdition, for now.

BTW, there is a quake due when this catalysis ends.

I don't know why I put off looking at the North American surface
pressure maps for so long. I did make an attempt to understand the el
Nino phenomenon once on a private weather forum.

But that was before I realised the way they decide a call is based on
statistics and involved a temperature gradient in the sea (FFS!) And
that temperature difference was a matter of some half a degree
centigrade.

According to a three day glimpse of this:

http://weather.unisys.com/

The standard model for a phase whose time is about 5 o'clock is a
stream of Low pressure crossing the States from the Pacific at Baja to
the Atlantic at Labrador.

The corridor for this low is a stream running NE from LA to the shores
of Hudson Bay and Tucson to Philadelphia. (Shouldn't that be
Philodelphia?)

There are two regions of High pressure bracketing this stream. One
from the NE seaboard of the USA through the middle of Texas. And one
from the Hudson Bay to Southern California.

As a guess I'd say that the alternative (when the time of the lunar
phase is about 7 o'clock) is a Low pressure system over Florida and
Georgia in an arc down the banks of the Ohio and the seismic events
are similarly settled at some 5.5 Mag max.

I suppose it would be too obvious to suppose that arc continues on
from Cincinnati to Baltimore. Makes a nice elliptical pattern though.

I have no idea where the rest of the air systems would lie.

On Dec 11, 6:50 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Just as when the time of the phase tends to produce severe storms (as
opposed to the usual suspects) when that time of phase is near 7
o'clock.

Correction:

Just as when the time of the phase tends to produce severe storms (as
opposed to the usual suspects) in the northern North Atlantic, when
the time of phase is near 7 o'clock.

Since the latitude of the storm is most likely dependent on the
declination of the moon and sun rather than the time of the phases,
that one hour difference is interesting.

That is, in the North Atlantic:

Tropical storms are produced with a lunar phase at or near 6 o'clock.

And with a lunar phase at or near 7 o'clock, tend to flow from Canada
to Scotland/Norway.

Or do they?

On Dec 11, 6:50 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Since the latitude of the storm is most likely dependent on the
declination of the moon and sun rather than the time of the phases,
that one hour difference is interesting.

A very strong counter current runs just north of the equator and
probably explains why tropical storms don't get mush further south of
5 degrees on the equator in the North Atlantic.

Both gyres in the Atlantic Basin flow west at the tropics. This
probably allows a thermo-haline vortex to form causing the eastward
flow between them. There must be a simple explanation for such a
remarkable anomaly.

The physics of oceanography indicate that the bottoms of the oceans
must be full of cold water and the relatively hot water filled with
more salt than anything the polar climes supply.

So when dense warm salt water drops into it some sort of circulation
must take place. Rather like the escapement of water in a plug hole.
Given time and scope, it will evolve a unified current.

Something must explain why these waters don't have hurricanes.

But I digress, the focus of today's diatribe was the tracks of said
storms. They seem peculiarly straight and strongly oriented westward.

So what stops the majority of them moving west in the manner of storms
in the higher latitudes? I wonder if it is something to do with the
polarity of the North Atlantic?

When the NAO is negative, there is an higher incidence of volcanic
activity and the Low pressures tend to move north. Is it as simple as
that?

When the NOA is strongly positive, the storms move west? Is that all
there is to it? So why does it induce volcanic activity instead of
larger, more random earthquakes?

Or have I got the cart before the horse? Do the larger earthquakes
cause the gyres?

On Dec 9, 6:30 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Anyone here have a bad attack of leg cramp yesterday about 7 pm
British time, maybe noon to early afternoon US/Canookistime?

I had a bad attack in my left calf that is still feeling bruised. I am
wondering if there is something in the earth when these things happen,
as I am sure the weather is involved.

Classic mid west USA one too. Nothing on here though.http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa

It turned out to be Australian:

An apparent tornado that whipped through open paddocks near Tungamah
last Monday evening was "like something from a movie" a woman who
witnessed it said.

"It was just beautiful; it was pure white and this tunnel of cloud
stretched from the sky right down to the ground."

Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Kevin Parkyn said it was
entirely possible the Lawrences did indeed witness a tornado in
action.

"They're probably a lot more common than many people realise," Mr
Parkyn said.

They will go to Tungamah this week to learn more about the Lawrence
family's sighting.

Chris Lawrence said he had never seen anything like it, despite living
in the Tungamah area for his entire life.

Mr Lawrence said the twister "snaked" along the ground for about 30
seconds before dissipating into the clouds.

Mrs Lawrence said Zoe managed to snap a picture on her father's camera
phone just as the twister disappeared.

"It was swirling towards us and then it was like someone just popped a
balloon," Zoe said.

http://www.countrynews.com.au/story....00712108872438

Although the time and date give it as Monday, that was the same time I
had the cramp. Aus is 10 hours ahead of us.

On Dec 13, 1:54 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Anyone here have a bad attack of leg cramp yesterday about 7 pm
British time, maybe noon to early afternoon US/Canookistime?
I had a bad attack in my left calf that is still feeling bruised.

http://www.countrynews.com.au/story....00712108872438

Although the time and date give it as Monday, that was the same time I
had the cramp. Aus is 10 hours ahead of us.

My leg felt bruised for a day or two afterwards so if that was the
storm then it will turn out to have been an F2 or something pretty
close. Maybe F3.

On Dec 11, 6:50 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

So do I turn the heating on again? Looks like it is going to be sunny.
Maybe I'll switch it on tonight, best to be safe.

subtropical storm olga public advisoryhome public adv fcst/adv
discussion wind probs maps/charts archive
torm olga advisory number 3
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al172007
1100 am ast tue dec 11 2007

I think I aught to mention that the frosts and fogs here are related
to severe cyclonic stuff elsewhere.

Only I am not sure where.
I doubt it's just Olga, which isn't that big a deal however unstable
local economies.

On Dec 13, 2:05 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Only I am not sure where.
I doubt it's just Olga, which isn't that big a deal however unstable
local economies.

Maybe I am wrong, with the flooding and 8 deaths. I wonder how much of
that would have been upper storey damage to the vegetation in better
days?

On Dec 13, 2:11 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Dec 13, 2:05 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:



Only I am not sure where.
I doubt it's just Olga, which isn't that big a deal however unstable
local economies.

Maybe I am wrong, with the flooding and 8 deaths.

14 dead and counting. And these:

6.2 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
6.2 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE

Or are they the precursors of this:
http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/sh0608.gif

On Dec 12, 10:11 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Dec 11, 6:50 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Or have I got the cart before the horse? Do the larger earthquakes
cause the gyres?

Nope, I no thin so:

5.0 2007/12/13 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA

6.2 2007/12/13 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION

6.2 2007/12/13 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE

5.1 2007/12/13 MID-INDIAN RIDGE

5.3 2007/12/13 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE

5.2 2007/12/13 TONGA

6.0 2007/12/13 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE

5.0 2007/12/13 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND

This is an odd one:

REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 06S HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCES OF NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING AND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO LEAVE THIS RELATIVELY WEAK ENVIRONMENT NEAR TAU 12 AND TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD. TC 06S WILL UNDERGO SLOW INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AXIS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND EXPERIENCES IMPROVED OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z
AND 151500Z.//
NNNN

http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/sh0608web.txt

It is odd that this one has stalled. I don't remember that happening
previously. But to stall and then grow?

On Dec 14, 3:23 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Dec 12, 10:11 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

On Dec 11, 6:50 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

6.2 2007/12/13 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
6.2 2007/12/13 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
6.0 2007/12/13 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE

This is an odd one:

TC 06S HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCES OF NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING AND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 06S WILL UNDERGO SLOW INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/sh0608web.txt

I think that the behaviour of the storm and the location of the High
in southern central Canada can be predicted fairly easily using global
weather models.

In which case it might well be possible to focus this phenomena on
predicting Mag. 6 earthquakes.

Note to my many fans.

Please trouble yourselves to read the whole shebang before you post
comments on the thread. It just might make you look silly if you post
derogatory comments and I turn out to be correct.

But don't let me stop you.