On May 5, 6:37 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

This morning a Cat 4 tropical storm appeared over Japan. No warnings
from any agency I saw.

Bloody fool I am, I was actually looking here and didn't see it:

5.1 M. 2008/05/05. 00:27. Near the east coast of Honshu, Japan.
5.8 M. 2008/05/03. 19:02. Bougainville region, PNG.

5.3 M. 2008/05/06. 23:28 -7.9 123.2 Banda Sea
5.3 M. 2008/05/06. 12:42 -20.4 168.8 Loyalty Islands
5.1 M. 2008/05/06. 10:06 -20.3 168.8 Loyalty Islands
5.3 M. 2008/05/05. 21:58 28.4 54.1 Southern Iran

If you take the matched pair out of this equation you get a lapse of
over 24 hours for the next pair:

06. 23:28 -7.9 123.2 Banda Sea
05. 21:58 28.4 54.1 Southern Iran

And a storm in the west (Asian) Pacific:
http://www.hurricanezone.net/tcgraphics/wp0308.gif

No hurricane yet (it is classed as a gale on the Beaufort Scale) it
will frow more powerful or the earthquake I said would arrive some
days ago is at last going to avail itself for our edification.

One more axiom for clueless:

When the classical methods of weather-forecasting show arror or
uncertainty and there is something of the same ilk with my efforts
then the likelihood (the North Atlantic having a positive NAO
(According to my way of classifying said anomaly. (Not that I think it
is anomalous, in the true meaning of the word.)))