On May 9, 9:26 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On May 9, 8:52 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

On May 9, 8:41 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

It's 21 hours now since the last one:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...quakes_big.php

And Rammasun is at hurricane force. It is slated to become a cat. 2.
Coincidence?

Perhaps.
If you care to look, you will find plenty of them.

When a couple of coincidents point to me being right, does it make you
think?

A 6.7 and smack on time too. You know what?

I am bloody good I am.
2008/05/09. 21:51. Guam region.

On May 10, 12:23 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...quakes_big.php

And Rammasun is at hurricane force. It is slated to become a cat. 2.
Coincidence?

A 6.7 and smack on time too. 2008/05/09. 21:51. Guam region.

http://www.hurricanezone.net/tcgraphics/wp0308.gif
120 knots. A Cat 4 again.

This gives us an opportunity to play with a little algebra vis a vis
weather patterns. A Lunar Phase near 12 or 6 o'clock should produce a
low overcast relatively cool spell. We have enjoyed an unusually fine
spell instead.

If you accord the times of the phases arbitrary values of 1 through 6
a la Weatherlawyer's Precepts, you derive a value of 5 o'clock for
this spell.

It has been displaced by 5 hours. Or if you advance the clock, 1 hour.

I am presuming the cause to be inertia, therefore I am going to go
with the larger number where I imagine the spell being retarded not
advanced. Ergo:

Spell X = 5
Time X = 6 = 00
Force X = Cat 4

Now we need a base line for the weather in that neck of the woods in
May. This is about the only time that statistics prove useful in
climatology:

DAMN!
Nothing is ever easy is it:
"The Philippines has two very different climate zones.

In the coastal and lowland areas there's a typically tropical marine
climate: hot and humid throughout most of the year. However, most of
the year constant sea breezes temper the climate somewhat except
during the dry summer months from March to the end of May.

The two main seasons are wet and dry; the dry season from mid-November
to mid-May

.... from November to the end of February enjoying cool, ocean breezes
with March to May with being the hottest, up to 38C" Did you write
this Dawlish?

"..and the wet season from June to October being hot and humid.

Every year during the rainy season nearly 20 typhoons, known as
"bagyos" blow across the islands usually lasting 3 or 4 days. Steamy,
sunny days during the wet season are common after the tropical
downpours of heavy rain during the nights and early mornings."
http://www.world66.com/asia/southeas...ppines/climate

Let us presume calm humid overcast is the norm for phases there as
here, where the time of the phase is 12 or 6 o'clock.

So a marked deterioration in the weather of from calm to 125 knots in
the West Pacific is worth a marked change from cool overcast to
anticyclonic in Britain.

And it can be given a value. A Cat 4 = an M 8 to M 9.
And an anticyclone where it should be a col is thus worth C4 or M 8.5.

Therefore a change in the spell from the predictable to the actual of
5 hours is the equivalent of 5 billion tons of TNT per region
affected.
http://www.seismo.unr.edu/ftp/pub/lo...magnitude.html

Hence the need to specify harmonics as per the question that started
this whole fracas off in the first place:
http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...48035decef3092

Which Low, as it happens, is still pending at 60 N 30 W:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.html

On May 10, 8:56*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On May 10, 12:23 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:



http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...quakes_big.php

And Rammasun is at hurricane force. It is slated to become a cat. 2.
Coincidence?

A 6.7 and smack on time too. *2008/05/09. 21:51. Guam region.

http://www.hurricanezone.net/tcgraphics/wp0308.gif
120 knots. A Cat 4 again.

This gives us an opportunity to play with a little algebra vis a vis
weather patterns. A Lunar Phase near 12 or 6 o'clock should produce a
low overcast relatively cool spell. We have enjoyed an unusually fine
spell instead.

If you accord the times of the phases arbitrary values of 1 through 6
a la Weatherlawyer's Precepts, you derive a value of 5 o'clock for
this spell.

It has been displaced by 5 hours. Or if you advance the clock, 1 hour.

I am presuming the cause to be inertia, therefore I am going to go
with the larger number where I imagine the spell being retarded not
advanced. Ergo:

Spell X = 5
Time X = 6 = 00
Force X = Cat 4

Now we need a base line for the weather in that neck of the woods in
May. This is about the only time that statistics prove useful in
climatology:

DAMN!
Nothing is ever easy is it:
"The Philippines has two very different climate zones.

*In the coastal and lowland areas there's a typically tropical marine
climate: hot and humid throughout most of the year. However, most of
the year constant sea breezes temper the climate somewhat except
during the dry summer months from March to the end of May.

The two main seasons are wet and dry; the dry season from mid-November
to mid-May

... from November to the end of February enjoying cool, ocean breezes
with March to May with being the hottest, up to 38C" Did you write
this Dawlish?

"..and the wet season from June to October being hot and humid.

Every year during the rainy season nearly 20 typhoons, known as
"bagyos" blow across the islands usually lasting 3 or 4 days. Steamy,
sunny days during the wet season are common after the tropical
downpours of heavy rain during the nights and early mornings."http://www.world66.com/asia/southeastasia/philippines/climate

Let us presume calm humid overcast is the norm for phases there as
here, where the time of the phase is 12 or 6 o'clock.

So a marked deterioration in the weather of *from calm to 125 knots in
the West Pacific is worth a marked change from cool overcast to
anticyclonic in Britain.

And it can be given a value. A Cat 4 = an M 8 to M 9.
And an anticyclone where it should be a col is thus worth C4 or M 8.5.

Therefore a change in the spell from the predictable to the actual of
5 hours is the equivalent of 5 billion tons of TNT per region
affected.

http://www.seismo.unr.edu/ftp/pub/lo...magnitude.html

Hence the need to specify harmonics as per the question that started
this whole fracas off in the first place:

http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...m/thread/e447e...

Which Low, as it happens, is still pending at 60 N 30 W:



http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.html- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

A prediction of a 7.5 Earthquake is now justified by you, by the
ocurrence of a 6.7 earthquake, which is over 8x weaker?? That's
"bloody good". Nah. That's guessing the probabilities completely
wrong. You went for far too big an eathquake. As has been pointed out
to you, on average, there are between 15 and 20 Earthquakes of 7.0
per year. 7.5 would probably be around 5. You can't cope with odds of
over 70/1 against.

An earthquake of 6 occurs around 150 times a year, 1 every 2 to 3
days on average. Just think how "bloody good" you could have been if
you'd just guessed your number a little differently?

Waiting for the "major eruption" over the next 2 days to increase your
success stats to 33% (and also for you to define what you mean by a
"major" eruption, though I know it benefits you a great deal to have
such obfuscation in your success criteria, even though the obfuscation
is painfully obvious.

No reasonable success percentage in predictions; no use.

On May 10, 8:56 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Therefore a change in the spell from the predictable to the actual of
5 hours is the equivalent of 5 billion tons of TNT per region
affected.

http://www.seismo.unr.edu/ftp/pub/lo...magnitude.html

Hence the need to specify harmonics as per the question that started
this whole fracas off in the first place:

http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...m/thread/e447e...

Which Low, as it happens, is still pending at 60 N 30 W:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.html

Furthermore the two North Atlantic cells are of the same order of
magnitude. The High focussed at Oslo/Gothenburg and the Low at 55 N 35
W are both about 1 hour wide.

OK, they cover some 20 or 40 degrees but the actual diameter is
Gothenburg to Edinburgh, isn't that far off 15 degrees on a great
circle.

I like that coincidence. 15 degrees suits me.

On May 10, 12:43*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On May 10, 8:56 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:



Therefore a change in the spell from the predictable to the actual of
5 hours is the equivalent of 5 billion tons of TNT per region
affected.

http://www.seismo.unr.edu/ftp/pub/lo...magnitude.html

Hence the need to specify harmonics as per the question that started
this whole fracas off in the first place:

http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...m/thread/e447e....

Which Low, as it happens, is still pending at 60 N 30 W:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.html

Furthermore the two North Atlantic cells are of the same order of
magnitude. The High focussed at Oslo/Gothenburg and the Low at 55 N 35
W are both about 1 hour wide.

OK, they cover some 20 or 40 degrees but the actual diameter is
Gothenburg to Edinburgh, *isn't that far off 15 degrees on a great
circle.

I like that coincidence. 15 degrees suits me.

I'm afraid it's a case of "whatever" here. You can write about all the
imaginary links you want, but without any success in using it to
predict, you are simply writing made-up nonsense; however much you
wish it to be true.

Looking forward to you defining "major" volcanic eruption then it
actually occurring by noon on Monday; otherwise, your prediction
accuracy over the last few weeks, stands at zero. I think you are
desperately wanting this one to be correct and 33% looks a lot better
than zero.

On May 10, 12:43 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On May 10, 8:56 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:



Therefore a change in the spell from the predictable to the actual of
5 hours is the equivalent of 5 billion tons of TNT per region
affected.

http://www.seismo.unr.edu/ftp/pub/lo...magnitude.html

Hence the need to specify harmonics as per the question that started
this whole fracas off in the first place:

http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...m/thread/e447e...

Which Low, as it happens, is still pending at 60 N 30 W:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.html

Furthermore the two North Atlantic cells are of the same order of
magnitude. The High focussed at Oslo/Gothenburg and the Low at 55 N 35
W are both about 1 hour wide.

OK, they cover some 20 or 40 degrees but the actual diameter is
Gothenburg to Edinburgh, isn't that far off 15 degrees on a great
circle.

I like that coincidence. 15 degrees suits me.

That should have read radius from Gothenburg to Edinburgh. The
diameter is more like 15 degrees as if from Edinburgh to Helsinki.

Anyway, the last quake was nearly 18 hours back so we might be getting
another storm.

On May 10, 3:48 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On May 10, 12:43 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:



On May 10, 8:56 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Therefore a change in the spell from the predictable to the actual of
5 hours is the equivalent of 5 billion tons of TNT per region
affected.

http://www.seismo.unr.edu/ftp/pub/lo...magnitude.html

Hence the need to specify harmonics as per the question that started
this whole fracas off in the first place:

http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...m/thread/e447e...

Which Low, as it happens, is still pending at 60 N 30 W:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.html

Furthermore the two North Atlantic cells are of the same order of
magnitude. The High focussed at Oslo/Gothenburg and the Low at 55 N 35
W are both about 1 hour wide.

OK, they cover some 20 or 40 degrees but the actual diameter is
Gothenburg to Edinburgh, isn't that far off 15 degrees on a great
circle.

I like that coincidence. 15 degrees suits me.

That should have read radius from Gothenburg to Edinburgh. The
diameter is more like 15 degrees as if from Edinburgh to Helsinki.

Anyway, the last quake was nearly 18 hours back so we might be getting
another storm.

Ah well they upgraded that Japanese quake after downgrading it
earlier. So that was a 15/16 hour break. And severe winds in the New
England region. Hardly hurricane force but then what you gonna do
boudit?

Winter weather warnings on there too:
http://www.weather.gov/

Pretty is as pretty does.
These may not be giving the information they are supposed to be doing
but if they are giving neat computer output from direct digital data
feeds, they are giving us notice of something else.

This first one for instance:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam...pac_gale_0.gif
is obviously advising us of the Cat 2 in the Pacific.

Apparently this one needs correcting:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam...atl_gale_0.gif

Without the corrections -which amount to erasure I imagine, it might
help us understand what data the system holds that might be being
overlooked.

No offence to anybody in particular but it seems to be a given for
satellite data.
Not that it makes all that much difference to weather forecasting but
who cares about weather forecasts? They are inaccurate over 5 days
either way.

On May 10, 8:21*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Pretty is as pretty does.
These may not be giving the information they are supposed to be doing
but if they are giving neat computer output from direct digital data
feeds, they are giving us notice of something else.

This first one for instance:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam....EFS.no_pac_ga...

is obviously advising us of the Cat 2 in the Pacific.

Apparently this one needs correcting:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam....EFS.no_atl_ga...

Without the corrections -which amount to erasure I imagine, it might
help us understand what data the system holds that might be being
overlooked.

No offence to anybody in particular but it seems to be a given for
satellite data.
Not that it makes all that much difference to weather forecasting but
who cares about weather forecasts? They are inaccurate over 5 days
either way.

Perhaps, with your record since 24th June, the weather forecasts are
FAR more accurate.

Still waiting for you to back your proposed links up with forecast
accuracy data.

You're struggling aren't you..........and this won't go away.

It is now the last day before the spell ends as far as the UK is
concerned. But the USA gets an imprint on things to come one day ahead
of us. Take a look at what is going on he
http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html

If I had to rate that output in kilotons, I'd say:
A lot!

Which bodes ill for this next spell. Traditionally this month is one
for thunderstorms of great power in the UK, which is not saying much
by Congolese or Floridian standards. But it is a time that is
difficult for me to predict what an unstable spell is going to do. And
this one is bad enough.

12's and 6's are easily overridden by more powerful spells preceding
them, that spate of spells just gone is a fine example of that. Those
spells were nearly 10's -or if you give them their Weather Lore
denominations:
4's.

This next spell is near enough a 4 too. A classical one, no
interpretation, no extrapolation. So this set up is going to prove
interesting.

Meanwhile it is end-game for this spell, so keep on the watch for the
unexpected. For you know what to expect with the unexpected now, don't
you children?