Odd the number of storms (tropical depressions = gales in this case)
that have similar times and paths even strengths, this year. Take TDs
0 4 and 5 he
http://satellite.ehabich.info/hurricane-watch.htm.

Odd too that the NEIC list seemed to give no hint of them due. Or did
it? The dual quakes that so neatly fall into the category of
aftershocks in contemporary geo-physics, mask the chronology of other
quakes.

Maybe there is a lot more to it than mere timing. That'd be a pity. Or
more likely a godsend.

On May 16, 9:10 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Odd too that the NEIC list seemed to give no hint of them due. Or did
it? The dual quakes that so neatly fall into the category of
aftershocks in contemporary geo-physics, mask the chronology of other
quakes.

5.4 2008/05/16 11:07 SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.5 2008/05/16 05:26 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.1 2008/05/16 03:34 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.3 2008/05/15 22:19 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION

Take out the two Chinese ones that match (and ordinarily would advise
of a cessation of meteorological hostilities) and we have something in
the region of 13 hours time difference: 16th 11:07; 15th 22:19.

And that it seems gives us warning that a gale is due and it will not
yet develop into a storm. Perhaps never. We'll have to wait and see.

Maybe there is a lot more to it than mere timing. That'd be a pity. Or
more likely a godsend.

There are plenty of indicators in there that may even indicate the
likely locations even paths of these things.

That would be nice.

Or to put it another way it would say a lot more for a loving creator
than looking at the news would lead one to believe:

Huge turnout' for Myanmar vote.

The referendum was held as scheduled despite the cyclone devastation
in other areas [AFP]
A referendum on a new constitution held last weekend in Myanmar has
been approved by 92 per cent of voters, the country's state media has
reported.

It said there was a 99 per cent turnout for the vote, held in areas
not affected by the cyclone. The announcement on Myanmar state
television came as the forecast for survivors of the cyclone is
getting increasingly bleak.

Relief supplies still have not reached the people who need them most
and now bad weather is threatening aid distribution.

The military government's decision to press ahead with the May 10
poll, a week after the deadly cyclone hit, was sharply criticised by
aid agencies who said the government should instead be concentrating
its resources on helping cyclone survivors and preventing disease.

Regions devastated by the cyclone, are set to vote on May 24, even
though the United Nations estimates that around two million people are
still in desperate need of food, water and shelter.

Myanmar's government has said 66,000 are dead or missing from the
cyclone, but the Red Cross has said it believes the death toll could
be in excess of 100,000.

The proposed charter will widen military powers [EPA]

The new constitution, which took 14 years to draft, has been heavily
backed by the military government and state media.

It says the 194-page document will form the basis for democratic
elections to be held sometime in 2010.

Al Jazeera correspondent Tony Cheng, who crossed secretly into the
Myanmar border town of Myawaddy during the Saturday's vote, found few
people who had read the constitution or supported it.

Many people he spoke to said they planned to put an X in the 'No'
box.

Critics have denounced the constitution as a sham, designed only to
institutionalise the military grip on power.

Under its terms the military will be guaranteed a quarter of all seats
in a future parliament, while another clause allows the president to
hand over all power to the military in a state of emergency.

Activists who have spent time in jail because of their opposition to
the military government will be barred from standing for election
because of their criminal records.

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exer...854F645B35.htm

Elsewhere it has been reported, the victims of the cyclone have been
moved to concentration camps.

On 16 May, 13:25, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On May 16, 9:10 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:



Odd too that the NEIC list seemed to give no hint of them due. Or did
it? The dual quakes that so neatly fall into the category of
aftershocks in contemporary geo-physics, mask the chronology of other
quakes.

5.4 2008/05/16 11:07 SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.5 2008/05/16 05:26 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.1 2008/05/16 03:34 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.3 2008/05/15 22:19 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION

Take out the two Chinese ones that match (and ordinarily would advise
of a cessation of meteorological hostilities) and we have something in
the region of 13 hours time difference: 16th 11:07; 15th 22:19.

And that it seems gives us warning that a gale is due and it will not
yet develop into a storm. Perhaps never. We'll have to wait and see.

Looks like I am wrong there.

TD 05 -Halong, has turned into or is about to turn into a hurricane
for a day or so. It only just breaks in as a Cat 1 but even so it has
more strength than I would have given it.

On 17 May, 05:01, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On 16 May, 13:25, Weatherlawyer wrote:



On May 16, 9:10 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Odd too that the NEIC list seemed to give no hint of them due. Or did
it? The dual quakes that so neatly fall into the category of
aftershocks in contemporary geo-physics, mask the chronology of other
quakes.

5.4 2008/05/16 11:07 SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.5 2008/05/16 05:26 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.1 2008/05/16 03:34 EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
5.3 2008/05/15 22:19 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION

Take out the two Chinese ones that match (and ordinarily would advise
of a cessation of meteorological hostilities) and we have something in
the region of 13 hours time difference: 16th 11:07; 15th 22:19.

And that it seems gives us warning that a gale is due and it will not
yet develop into a storm. Perhaps never. We'll have to wait and see.

Looks like I am wrong there.

TD 05 -Halong, has turned into or is about to turn into a hurricane
for a day or so. It only just breaks in as a Cat 1 but even so it has
more strength than I would have given it.

Meanwhile the tragedy worsens in a cruel country:

Myanmar cyclone toll nears 78,000

The UN is now warning that 2.5 million people are facing hunger and
disease [AFP]
The official death toll from Cyclone Nargis, which swept through
Myanmar's Irrawaddy delta, has reached 77,738, state television has
said.

It also reported on Friday that another 55,917 people are missing and
19,359 are injured.

The news comes as Myanmar faces increased pressure to allow
international aid into the country.

The previous official death toll was 43,328, with independent experts
saying the actual number could be much higher.

British officials say the total number of people dead and missing
could be more than 200,000.

Myanmar's military rulers appear to be digging in their heels in the
face of mounting international pressure to allow more aid into the
country.

John Holmes, the leading UN humanitarian affairs official, is waiting
for visa approval to visit Myanmar so he can urge the military
government to open up to a full-scale international relief effort.

But one state-run newspaper says Myanmar can rebuild without outside
help, even though there is little evidence of that on the ground.

And the UN is now warning that 2.5 million people are facing hunger
and disease. But instead of giving out aid, the government is dishing
out eviction orders. Hundreds of displaced villagers taking refuge at
a sports hall in Yangon have been told they must go, an Al Jazeera
correspondent on the ground reported.

Army officers told them they had 24 hours to leave, without explaining
why or telling them where they could go.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exer...59CBEE3F07.htm

We had a sample of shambolic governance in the mad cow and foot and
mouth era of Conservative government. Then their replacement, Fairy B
Liar, sent an ill prepared army to invade Afghanistan and then Iraq.

An army that was so badly supplied that they hadn't the right
equipment, soldiers dying because of it. Having to buy their own boots
because the official issue ones melted in the heat, that sort of
thing.

No back up squadrons of engineers to make the lives of the civilians
they conquered bearable, no civil service of any sort. Barely able to
supply water for themselves the beautiful cities in Iraq were soon
reduced to rubble.

And no sign of things improving.

So no prizes for guessing why Burma doesn't want help from the British
or the United States of Catastrophe.

They probably wonder how the hell an enemy that subjugated them for
centuries and can't even restore New Orleans, one of their major sea
ports?

"How the hell are they going to help us?"

It must be a terrible decision to have to make. All that aid ready to
roll in.

"Yes, right! Where was it in 2005?"

"What? You want us to be in your shoes? Will they melt?"

A Chinese county near the epicentre of a 7.9 magnitude earthquake has
been ordered to evacuate amid fears that a lake may burst its banks.

Thousands fled Beichuan town in central Sichuan province on Saturday
to escape possible flooding.

Soldiers carried older people to safety while survivors cradled babies
on a road jammed with vehicles.

A policeman told the Associated Press news agency on Saturday that
rescuers were worried that water from the lake would inundate
Beichuan.

"The lake was jammed up by a landslide and may burst. That is what we
are worried about," he said without giving his name.

The official Xinhua News Agency said earlier that a lake in Beichuan
county "may burst its bank at any time".

It said 46 seriously injured people were in "dire need of help" in
Beichuan, where the water level was rising rapidly.

Rescuers evacuated

Xinhua did not give details but Hong Kong cable television said some
1.2 million people were being evacuated in Qingchuan, about 90km
northeast of Beichuan.

A witness said by telephone the military was evacuating everyone in
Beichuan, even rescue workers.

Residents left homes for higher ground, but a local disaster relief
official said the water in Haizi lake, nestled between two mountains,
was not rising very quickly.

Experts were studying how to release the excess from the lake, the
relief official in Mianyang, who refused to give her name, said.

Earlier, Guo Weimin, a cabinet spokesman, said that the confirmed
quake death toll had risen to 28,881.

The government had previously said at least 50,000 people were
believed killed in the disaster.

Survivors were still being found under destroyed buildings five days
after the quake.

Survivors

A 52-year-old man buried in the ruins for 117 hours was pulled to
safety in Beichuan, just after a German tourist was found in Wenchuan
county, Xinhua reported.

The vast majority of survivors are rescued in the first 24 hours after
a disaster, with the chances of survival dropping each day, said
Irving "Jake" Jacoby of the University of California, San Diego.

Jacoby heads a medical assistance team that responded to a 1989
earthquake in California, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and other
disasters.

A person trapped but uninjured could survive a week or even 10 days,
and in extreme circumstances two weeks or more, he said.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exer...3C2FB40074.htm

In the North Atlantic the set up has clarified with a Low of some 993
about 20 west of the UK.

Over North America there is a variation of some 8 millibars all told,
with pressures given as low but they are 1008 to 1016 except for a Low
of 993 (again) over Labrador and Newfoundland.

That's a situation that is begging for super-cells is it not?
I can't get an update on the North Atlantic nor the Pacific on this
site yet:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/efs.html
But going from yesterday's criteria, there is definitely something
pending. I have no idea what though.

For what it's worth I have a crick in my neck or right shoulder.

On May 19, 7:50 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
In the North Atlantic the set up has clarified with a Low of some 993
about 20 west of the UK.

Over North America there is a variation of some 8 millibars all told,
with pressures given as low but they are 1008 to 1016 except for a Low
of 993 (again) over Labrador and Newfoundland.

That's a situation that is begging for super-cells is it not?
I can't get an update on the North Atlantic nor the Pacific on this
site yet:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/efs.html

But going from yesterday's criteria, there is definitely something
pending. I have no idea what though.

For what it's worth I have a crick in my neck or right shoulder.

5.1 05/19 14:49 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.9 05/19 14:26 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

That's it for Halong.

On May 19, 6:41 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On May 19, 7:50 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

In the North Atlantic the set up has clarified with a Low of some 993
about 20 west of the UK.

Over North America there is a variation of some 8 millibars all told,
with pressures given as low but they are 1008 to 1016 except for a Low
of 993 (again) over Labrador and Newfoundland.

That's a situation that is begging for super-cells is it not?
I can't get an update on the North Atlantic nor the Pacific on this
site yet:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/efs.html

But going from yesterday's criteria, there is definitely something
pending. I have no idea what though.

For what it's worth I have a crick in my neck or right shoulder.

5.1 05/19 14:49 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.9 05/19 14:26 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

That's it for Halong.

03:47

12th to 20th May
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html

On May 14, 9:28 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Prezzie for you:

There is an high leaving the United States at the moment over the
Carolinas/Florida:

http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html

This will produce a 6.5 I think at the Andrianof Islands chain
somewhere on this arc:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/.../10/180_50.php

6 to 6.5 M. probably. And it will occur at something like 90 degrees
from where it hits the steep slope I believe. I don't know if rat
Island is more likely in that case but it's going to be in that area.

Logically you might suspect that the reaction to these things is a
mirror effect in the largest bits. And ths may be seismic in nature?
Why not.

There is certainly that coincident I pointed out elsewhere about the
lapse rate in the appearance of mag 5 and greater quakes being related
to strong winds.

There seems to be something going on along those lines at the moment
with Halong.

I don't claim to know how or why, yet.

6.3 2008/05/20 13:54 Rat Islands, Aleutians, Alaska.
This was 6 days after I posted the original warning. And the day that
the spell ended.

No explanation or exculpation. I am not here for anyone's edification
or education but my own -though both can be had as a gift, depending
on the humility of the reader.

On May 22, 6:11*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On May 19, 6:41 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:





On May 19, 7:50 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

In the North Atlantic the set up has clarified with a Low of some 993
about 20 west of the UK.

Over North America there is a variation of some 8 millibars all told,
with pressures given as low but they are 1008 to 1016 except for a Low
of 993 (again) over Labrador and Newfoundland.

That's a situation that is begging for super-cells is it not?
I can't get an update on the North Atlantic nor the Pacific on this
site yet:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/efs.html

But going from yesterday's criteria, there is definitely something
pending. I have no idea what though.

For what it's worth I have a crick in my neck or right shoulder.

5.1 05/19 14:49 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.9 05/19 14:26 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

That's it for Halong.

03:47

12th to 20th Mayhttp://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html

On May 14, 9:28 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Prezzie for you:

There is an high leaving the United States at the moment over the
Carolinas/Florida:

http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html

This will produce a 6.5 I think at the Andrianof Islands chain
somewhere on this arc:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/.../10/180_50.php

6 to 6.5 M. probably. And it will occur at something like 90 degrees
from where it hits the steep slope I believe. I don't know if rat
Island is more likely in that case but it's going to be in that area.

Logically you might suspect that the reaction to these things is a
mirror effect in the largest bits. And ths may be seismic in nature?
Why not.

There is certainly that coincident I pointed out elsewhere about the
lapse rate in the appearance of mag 5 and greater quakes being related
to strong winds.

There seems to be something going on along those lines at the moment
with Halong.

I don't claim to know how or why, yet.

6.3 2008/05/20 13:54 Rat Islands, Aleutians, Alaska.
This was 6 days after I posted the original warning. And the day that
the spell ended.

No explanation or exculpation. I am not here for anyone's edification
or education but my own -though both can be had as a gift, depending
on the humility of the reader.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

It's a shame

On May 22, 7:16*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On May 22, 6:11*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:





On May 19, 6:41 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

On May 19, 7:50 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

In the North Atlantic the set up has clarified with a Low of some 993
about 20 west of the UK.

Over North America there is a variation of some 8 millibars all told,
with pressures given as low but they are 1008 to 1016 except for a Low
of 993 (again) over Labrador and Newfoundland.

That's a situation that is begging for super-cells is it not?
I can't get an update on the North Atlantic nor the Pacific on this
site yet:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/efs.html

But going from yesterday's criteria, there is definitely something
pending. I have no idea what though.

For what it's worth I have a crick in my neck or right shoulder.

5.1 05/19 14:49 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.9 05/19 14:26 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

That's it for Halong.

03:47

12th to 20th Mayhttp://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html

On May 14, 9:28 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Prezzie for you:

There is an high leaving the United States at the moment over the
Carolinas/Florida:

http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html

This will produce a 6.5 I think at the Andrianof Islands chain
somewhere on this arc:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/.../10/180_50.php

6 to 6.5 M. probably. And it will occur at something like 90 degrees
from where it hits the steep slope I believe. I don't know if rat
Island is more likely in that case but it's going to be in that area.

Logically you might suspect that the reaction to these things is a
mirror effect in the largest bits. And ths may be seismic in nature?
Why not.

There is certainly that coincident I pointed out elsewhere about the
lapse rate in the appearance of mag 5 and greater quakes being related
to strong winds.

There seems to be something going on along those lines at the moment
with Halong.

I don't claim to know how or why, yet.

6.3 2008/05/20 13:54 Rat Islands, Aleutians, Alaska.
This was 6 days after I posted the original warning. And the day that
the spell ended.

No explanation or exculpation. I am not here for anyone's edification
or education but my own -though both can be had as a gift, depending
on the humility of the reader.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

It's a shame- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

........you did not specify the "day that the spell ended" when you
actually posted this. You subsequently said that you had given up on
this event and said you were going "back to the drawing board", but
with generosity, I gave you a week for your prediction to verify,
thus: well done! The first of your prognostications to achieve outcome
in the last month.

1 out of 4, 25%.

I was generous in the timescale, and I did say at the time that a
6-6.5 earthquake occurring in this area, over the timescale of a week,
could not, on its own be easily separated from chance.

This particular reader, when reading your posts shows a sight more
humility than you, but is prepared to monitor what you do and will do
whether you like it, or not. I will be fair, but, crucially, I will be
judgemental and I will compare what you are doing to the possibility
of what you say occurring by chance. I would also like you, yourself,
to point out when your forecasts are incorrect and not just when you
feel you have had a success - like now. That certainly hasn't happened
over the last month and I hope you will rectify that, or you mustn't
expect to be taken seriuosly. However, having said that, I will take
you seriously, if you demonstrate success in your forecasting, which
can easily be interpreted as being greater than could be achieved by
guesswork (chance). I note you have been saying things in another
group, but I will do my monitoring on here, as I just can't be
bothered to go chasing your forecasts. If you don't post your
forecasts on here, fair enough, after this kind of success rate, many
would associate you with the crackpot fringe and, as such, you
forecasts and posts wouldn't be missed by most.