On Oct 24, 8:00*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Oct 24, 2:29*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:



On Oct 23, 11:38*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Something happened around an hour back 22:00 23rd October 2008. I had
a sharp twinge in the Tongas.

Now would be a good time to discuss miracles. It's all in the timing.
And that is a problem here. Until you allow for travelling.

To travel some 8000 miles through the earth (some 145 degrees (that's
just outside the shadow zone isn't it?) is several miles less) but at
8000; it is 4000 mph.

Anyway all the technicalities aside, there is one more large one due
in just under 2 hours. I had a bad twinge 5 or 10 minutes back. About
02:15.

Right then.

4.8 M. 24th @ 01:54. 3.2 S. 129.4 E. Seram, Indonesia.
4.7 M. 24th @ 00:58. 18.4 S. 176.6 W. Fiji Region.

Maybe there is one waiting appeal? Maybe I got the wires crossed
again. Or maybe having a twinge from the same thing that causes
earthquakes doesn't necessarily mean a quake will occur?

Or maybe I am on BST and forgot to allow for that. That's the problem
with miracles. You have to be a god to get the timing right.

The Lows above and west of Britain are sharply defined and they have
spread out in a line just like the set up that I remember from a
recent spell. That eventually went north of Siberia to hover there for
ages in the following spell.

Probably tied in with the behaviour of that Low smack in the centre of
the USA.

It's all getting very fraught.

938 mb. That is low.

The Low in the USA has started to go east. And nothing has shown up on
the NEIC lists for the twinges I had earlier. In fact nothing has
shown up on the NEIC lists since 5pm.

I think it odd but I am not sure that there should be something up. I
suppose it is only a couple of hours -by the time it gets the
clearance.

Plus or minus BST?

On Oct 24, 9:39*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Oct 24, 8:00*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:



On Oct 24, 2:29*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

On Oct 23, 11:38*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Something happened around an hour back 22:00 23rd October 2008. I had
a sharp twinge in the Tongas.

Now would be a good time to discuss miracles. It's all in the timing.
And that is a problem here. Until you allow for travelling.

To travel some 8000 miles through the earth (some 145 degrees (that's
just outside the shadow zone isn't it?) is several miles less) but at
8000; it is 4000 mph.

Anyway all the technicalities aside, there is one more large one due
in just under 2 hours. I had a bad twinge 5 or 10 minutes back. About
02:15.

Right then.

4.8 M. 24th @ 01:54. 3.2 S. 129.4 E. Seram, Indonesia.
4.7 M. 24th @ 00:58. 18.4 S. 176.6 W. Fiji Region.

Maybe there is one waiting appeal? Maybe I got the wires crossed
again. Or maybe having a twinge from the same thing that causes
earthquakes doesn't necessarily mean a quake will occur?

Or maybe I am on BST and forgot to allow for that. That's the problem
with miracles. You have to be a god to get the timing right.

The Lows above and west of Britain are sharply defined and they have
spread out in a line just like the set up that I remember from a
recent spell. That eventually went north of Siberia to hover there for
ages in the following spell.

Probably tied in with the behaviour of that Low smack in the centre of
the USA.

It's all getting very fraught.

938 mb. That is low.

The Low in the USA has started to go east. And nothing has shown up on
the NEIC lists for the twinges I had earlier. In fact nothing has
shown up on the NEIC lists since 5pm.

I think it odd but I am not sure that there should be something up. I
suppose it is only a couple of hours -by the time it gets the
clearance.

Plus or minus BST?

Plus of minus British Summer Time. Which changes to Greenwich Mean
tonight.

I am surprised there weren't more Tongan / Fijian quakes but events
all changed yesterday evening (UK.)

Or maybe I was looking too far from home.

The Lows over Iceland have become two well defined ones after
elongating and they are now in the process of rotating around each
other.

In my opinion whatever the mechanism behind this phenomenon is, it is
the cause of the rotation of all cyclones and instrumental in
vorticity -whatever that is.

There was flooding in Britain's equivalent of the Yellowstone crater:

An operation was under way today to rescue hundreds of marathon
runners stranded by heavy rain and flooding in the Lake District.
Mountain rescue teams from across the region were working to take the
competitors from the Original Mountain Marathon to safety.
The manager of Honister Slate Mine, near Keswick, Cumbria said he had
sheltered up to 300 of the runners and that some people were taken to
hospital suffering from hypothermia.:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/oct/25/weather

The run was called off but not before entrants had scattered over the
region. Which highlights how easy it is to lose track of natural
hazards in an urbanised country such as Britain.

Even outdoor enthusiasts are too easily coddled living in large towns.
I suppose they forget that shelter in rural Britain is often difficult
to find in emergencies. There are not that many places more than a few
miles from a town.

But when you are a few miles from a town and not used to the
conditions, it is enough.

4.1 M. 51.3 N. 179.0 W. 2008/10/25 @ 06:45. Rat Islands.

Hardly rocket science that one. The American Pacific storm died out to
less than 20 knots without reaching far enough north to make a turn
(Fresh Breeze -Beaufort F5.)

4 M is quite large for the Aleutians which has a chain of volcanoes to
divert anything larger as well as a predisposition to hectic storms.

(There again one seems to follow the other with those, anyway.)

Now there is an high stretching toward the Carolinas and that means
IIRC (and I seldom do that) the Andreanof Islands. I don't think the
Fox Islands ones are over yet though.

(Descisions, descisions...)

At least 48 people have been killed or are missing in Yemen, following
torrential rains.
Most of the casualties are in the eastern province of Hadhramawt, hit
by a tropical storm earlier this week.
An air rescue operation is under way. Damage is extensive because most
homes in the area are made of mud brick.
Reports say the floodwaters are threatening the historic high-rise mud
buildings of Shibam - a Unesco world heritage site.
A reporter for the Associated Press news agency in Shibam said he had
watched a two-storey mud-brick house disintegrate on Saturday.

There has also been severe flooding in the capital, Sanaa, in recent
days.
On Saturday at least six aircraft took off from Sanaa carrying tents,
food and medicine to Hadramawt province, airport officials told AFP
news agency.
Severe flash floods struck Yemen in 2006, leaving several dead and
sweeping away buildings:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7689795.stm

http://www.pme.gov.sa/en/eindex.asp
http://www.pme.gov.sa/warning.asp
http://weather.pme.gov.sa/bits/sat-anim-web.php

No archives I could find and not much support for English. But how
much support does the MetO offer to other-languagees?

A small surge in the intensity of West US quakes and several reported
on the BBC despite their strength. (Odd.)

But not out of keeping with the behaviour of certain servers of a
certain California based archivist.

At least 48 people have been killed or are missing in Yemen, following
torrential rains.

Most of the casualties are in the eastern province of Hadhramawt, hit
by a tropical storm earlier this week.

An air rescue operation is under way. Damage is extensive because most
homes in the area are made of mud brick.

Reports say the flood-waters are threatening the historic high-rise
mud buildings of Shibam - a UNESCO world heritage site.

A reporter for the Associated Press news agency in Shibam said he had
watched a two-storey mud-brick house disintegrate on Saturday.

There has also been severe flooding in the capital, Sanaa, in recent
days.

On Saturday at least six aircraft took off from Sanaa carrying tents,
food and medicine to Hadramawt province, airport officials told AFP
news agency.

Severe flash floods struck Yemen in 2006, leaving several dead and
sweeping away buildings:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7689795.stm

Some Saudi websites:
http://www.pme.gov.sa/en/eindex.asp
http://www.pme.gov.sa/warning.asp
http://weather.pme.gov.sa/bits/sat-anim-web.php

No archives I could find and not much support for English. But how
much support does the MetO offer to other-languagees?

A small surge in the intensity of West US quakes and several reported
on the BBC despite their strength. (Odd.)

But not out of keeping with the behaviour of certain servers of a
certain California based archivist.

*******
Holiday's over, folks Weatherlawyer is back.

A deep Low in Scandinavia (the recent ones from) Iceland and an
intense High SW of Britain have met in the Norwegian Sea to threaten
Britain with a very cold spell for this time of year. This sort of set
up brings a snow front.

I doubt we'll get snow as far south as Stoke so early in the year but
even so, I am not looking forward to it. I hope that there is
something good out of the economic depression, that if we get a 1/4"
fall, the commute will not be agony.

Having said that I prefer the cold to high summer and at least it
won't be raining.

Will it?

Anyway. On with the show:

The new spell is for anticyclonic stuff from tomorrow. The facrt it
started after some recent seismic activity will have escaped all good
students of all earth sciences all over the earth.

Good-oh!

28th October 2008 @ 23:14 It's a classic and I should imagine it will
produce at least a 6.8M. But why would I wish for that?

On Oct 24, 8:39*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Oct 24, 8:00*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:



On Oct 24, 2:29*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

On Oct 23, 11:38*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Something happened around an hour back 22:00 23rd October 2008. I had
a sharp twinge in the Tongas.

Now would be a good time to discuss miracles. It's all in the timing.
And that is a problem here. Until you allow for travelling.

To travel some 8000 miles through the earth (some 145 degrees (that's
just outside the shadow zone isn't it?) is several miles less) but at
8000; it is 4000 mph.

Anyway all the technicalities aside, there is one more large one due
in just under 2 hours. I had a bad twinge 5 or 10 minutes back. About
02:15.

Right then.

4.8 M. 24th @ 01:54. 3.2 S. 129.4 E. Seram, Indonesia.
4.7 M. 24th @ 00:58. 18.4 S. 176.6 W. Fiji Region.

Maybe there is one waiting appeal? Maybe I got the wires crossed
again. Or maybe having a twinge from the same thing that causes
earthquakes doesn't necessarily mean a quake will occur?

Or maybe I am on BST and forgot to allow for that. That's the problem
with miracles. You have to be a god to get the timing right.

The Lows above and west of Britain are sharply defined and they have
spread out in a line just like the set up that I remember from a
recent spell. That eventually went north of Siberia to hover there for
ages in the following spell.

Probably tied in with the behaviour of that Low smack in the centre of
the USA.

It's all getting very fraught.

938 mb. That is low.

The Low in the USA has started to go east. And nothing has shown up on
the NEIC lists for the twinges I had earlier. In fact nothing has
shown up on the NEIC lists since 5pm.

I think it odd but I am not sure that there should be something up. I
suppose it is only a couple of hours -by the time it gets the
clearance.

Plus or minus BST?
So it is my own backyard or a garden far away.

It may be where that damned Low is crossing a line. There is rotation
in that mix. But charts of 6 hour intervals are not going to prove it.

Nor it the absence of low range quakes in all the earth. I think I
have gone about as far as I can go with the NEIC lists but anything
larger will be impossible to handle.

There has to be a simpler way. That will need some serious sleeping
on.

I have just had another episode of neck or shoulder pain. So what the
devil is going to happen necks?

I think it won't be in Vanuatu. Tonga / Fiji then and I wish I could
find a list of smaller than 4 M. quakes in that region.

Petra, you reading this?

This is what I mean:
26th October 2008:
2.7 M. @ 09:35. 40.3 N. 124.7 W. Offshore N Cal.
4.9 M. @ 09:27. 40.3 N. 124.7 W. Offshore N Cal.

I am not sure magnitude is being worked out the way it counts in
relation to the rest of geo-physics.

You don't for example add a 2.7 to a 4.9 and get a 7.6.

But they have had that effect on the weather.

Which leaves my presumptions about the rearrangements of my lunar
codes all to cock. That should please some.

Losers!

Then there is all that stuff following it in the same place in the
Unimak Island region of Alaska.

Juno wot?

If I wasn't such a genius...

I'd still have superpowers.

21st to 28th October 2008: 11:55.

I have just been trawling through the stuff I wrote about the last
spell And during it:

"23rd to 30th August 2008: 23:50.

This is an easy one. Overcast with mists or drizzle rather than rain."

The first post started out as almost identical to what I wrote last
night.

Mercifully I abstained from any poetry on that spell. I rather feel my
fans are not going to be so lucky this time around.

Activity Storms this morning:
03B (Gulf of Aden)
Asma (South Indian)

For the whole previous spell:

Fay 06L NAT 15to 24 August 55kt
Nuri 13W NWP 17 to 22 August 95kt
Julio 11E NEP 23 to 26 August 45kt
- 14W NWP 26 to28 August 35kt

No North Atlantic hurricanes but IIRC it was a breeder for the week
after.

So all of you sailors take warning and see
Not to go following the Weatherlawyer
The words of this prophet bring ruin to thee.

*******

On May 22, 11:27 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

2. For what it's worth I have a crick in my neck or right shoulder

Message #8 in Google's list:

http://groups.google.com/group/sci.g...gst&q=numbers#

Then #9 :

5.2 05/21. 23:23. 4.4 S 101.1 E southern Sumatra
5.4 05/21. 22:23. 4.1 S. 101.2 E. southern Sumatra
5.3 05/21. 20:17. 4.2 S. 102.5 E. southern Sumatra

5.1 05/21. 02:46. 10.0 S. 150.9 E. eastern New Guinea reg
5.1 05/21. 01:30. 10.0 S 150.9 E. eastern New Guinea reg

5.7 05/20. 17:08. 3.1 S. 101.5 E. southern Sumatra

I was too busy watching Fox Island and the Aleutians.

See how I suffer for the cause?

Well at least I now know the cause.

*******
Crap:
I wasn't too busy to catch this one if I had been able to:
6.3 M. 22nd Oct. 12:56 -18.4 -175.40 Tonga.

But I didn't.
I can't say I was completely unaware of discomfort, just not 6.3 M of
it.
/Crap
*******

The North Atlantic chart is looking like a re-run of a few days ago.
"That" low seemed to suck in the one above it and one approaching from
Canada.

I know most of this stuff is subjective, the schema is something
decided by a man in an office not a collation of realities from
various weather stations.

Sort of...

But anyway those lows are now individuals once more.

Which begs these questions of perfect storms:
Why do they behave like that? Shouldn't these things be looking for
Highs to do that to?

Not having passed through the mill, I can honestly answer that one
quite easily. Highs come down from above. They are warm because of
adiabatics.

They are so large that the decompression inside them produces heat.
Yes right...

Eh?

Howsat again?
*******

OK. Let's approach this from another angle.

Like goes to like. Lows go to Lows because they run in the same
channels. But that explains all like attractions.

Oh goodie.
It was that obvious?

*******

So what causes unlike attractions. That would be interesting.

And talking about channels, how do highs climb down through the
atmosphere. How, for that matter, do Lows climb up?

That one's not so obvious is it?

*******

Diminishing returns.

In order of magnitude there are three questions and the last one is
the hardest, it has already been answered.

The first one is what causes vorticity.

The second one is: "When do you tell a mountain to get up and be
planted in the sky?".

And the third one is obvious.

*******

There is another Low nestling in the Bay of Places Unknown at the
mouth of the Denmark Strait. It is at 977 mb at the time of writing.
They all seem to be 97 ~something-or-other just there.

Maybe it is just me or the cycle for them at the moment.

Maybe if I look back to not all that long ago I will find they don't
all wait until they are 980 before they cross Iceland or go to 975 or
lower before carrying on up between Greenland and Iceland.

Some of them choose to go up the Davis Strait. And some leap onto
Greenland itself.

I wonder how, not why. For all I know and I posses not inconsiderable
skills of ignorance in that specific, someone already knows the answer
to that.

It's just that I was asleep at the wheel that day. Or I missed the
other lectures. Perhaps I just need to ask Google the right questions.

Why do some lows go up the Davis Strait? doesn't do it for me.

This came close:
http://www.faa.gov/airports_airtraff...NAO/NAOC02.HTM
with: "Why do some low pressure areas go up the Davis Strait?"

Since it concerns commerce (and considerable savings in fuel and life
in economic terms always gets money for research) you'd think it would
be easy to find the answer. Wouldn't you?

"Summary
If you have found this chapter on the NAT meteorological environment
difficult to assimilate, it is primarily because of the complex and
often quick changing nature of the weather over the NAT Region."

But they don't say anything.

If you thought that was difficult boy, are you in the wrong place
reading the wrong thread at the wrong time.

Go and play war of the worlds or something less tedious.

*******

I used to write :
"Ridges cols or troughs." for this spell type.

That was in my ignorance and a simpler world. (The world is always
simpler for the ignorant and they, quite rightly, will not be
disabused without abuse.)

It was my idea that the country would be surrounded by a low pressure
system adjacent to an high then another low then another high and that
one would dominate Britain sending in a ridge or a trough.

Until then or during any lapse, a col would be my definition of the
weather.

At the moment all the lows are gathered in the west. This side of the
Mid Atlantic ridge, so no going back in this spell. They must either
go up north to Norway or to cross England as a trough of low pressure
extending, amoeba like, to the North Sea where it would probably enter
the Low Countries or go up the North Sea to Denmark or the Baltic.

Had this stage of things occurred towards the end of the spell I might
even hazard the guess that it could be dragged arse backwards across
the Ridge and end up in the Davis Strait.

I do have a collection of charts for that or you can pick them up
yourself from Leeds University.

The server links are he
http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dgx44d4z_11dwwjdxcx&hl=en

We have enjoyed two days of nice weather under a stream of contours
that varied from 1000mb in Scotland to 1024 in England thus the
central pressure line drawn is or was 1016 mb. (the lower pressures
being closer together.)

Which is how I derive the fundamental pressure system in Britain in
these spells as 1016 mb.

OK, I am cheating but it's all in a good cause. Besides, I chose an
arbitrary centre for Britain as being the North Wales reach of the
Irish Sea. Which is somewhere that line runs through.

*******
Something happened around an hour back 22:00 23rd October 2008. I had
a sharp twinge in the Tongas.

If it shows up it could be another hour and more before it shows up on
the NEIC list. Can't wait.

Pity there isn't another run of phases going from 6 to 5 in the last
couple of years that I have good data for. I have some 3's to 6's and
some 3's to 5's:
And sheet 3 of this document:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?k...p3Xa-z2-fna5BQ

TD 17 E is a basker at the moment, as is that low in the US Mid-West.
When they cross their respective coasts, I dare say they will do so at
the same time or at least, the same date.

And produce a double header in the Aleutians. I dare say there are
plenty of details from previous runs that were similar.

Unfortunately I don't have the access to them that I might have. Too
bad. In a day or so we will see how accurate I am. That contusion of
Lows in the N Atlantic off Britain is looking familiar too. Pity about
the data available to me.

And my ability to use it.

But human life is cheap and if I get it wrong the dauntless will come
out to play. The scum, also wry, says.

********


Nope; Still getting twinges in the neck. Neck and left shoulder blade.
And clicking in the joint.

Going to be one of them nights.

Yup; here we go:

5.7 M. 24th @ 00:26. 26.2 S. 177.6 W. S. of Fiji Islands
4.8 M. 23rd @ 23:36. 18.0 S. 176.8 W. Fiji Region.

Almost makes it bearable. Still going to be a bloody pain though.

Now would be a good time to discuss miracles. It's all in the timing.
And that is a problem here. Until you allow for travelling.

To travel some 8000 miles through the earth (some 145 degrees (that's
just outside the shadow zone isn't it?) is several miles less) but at
8000; it is 4000 mph.

Anyway all the technicalities aside there is one more large one due in
just under 2 hours. I had a bad twinge 5 or 10 minutes back. About
02:15.

Right then.

4.8 M. 24th @ 01:54. 3.2 S. 129.4 E. Seram, Indonesia.
4.7 M. 24th @ 00:58. 18.4 S. 176.6 W. Fiji Region.

Maybe there is one waiting appeal? Maybe I got the wires crossed
again. Or maybe having a twinge from the same thing that causes
earthquakes doesn't necessarily mean a quake will occur?

Or maybe I am on BST and forgot to allow for that. That's the problem
with miracles. You have to be a god to get the timing right. And I am
not a god.

The Lows above and west of Britain are sharply defined and they have
spread out in a line just like the set up that I remember from a
recent spell. That eventually went north of Siberia to hover there for
ages in the following spell.

Probably tied in with the behaviour of that Low smack in the centre of
the USA.

It's all getting very fraught.

938 mb. That is low.

The Low in the USA has started to go east. And nothing has shown up on
the NEIC lists for the twinges I had earlier. In fact nothing has
shown up on the NEIC lists since 5pm.

I think it odd but I am not sure that there should be something up. I
suppose it is only a couple of hours -by the time it gets the
clearance.

Plus or minus British Summer Time. Which changes to Greenwich Mean
tonight.

I am surprised there weren't more Tongan / Fijian quakes but events
all changed yesterday evening (UK.)

*******

So it is my own backyard or a garden far away.

It may be where that damned Low is crossing a line. There is rotation
in that mix. But charts of 6 hour intervals are not going to prove it.

Nor it the absence of low range quakes in all the earth. I think I
have gone about as far as I can go with the NEIC lists but anything
larger will be impossible to handle.

There has to be a simpler way. That will need some serious sleeping
on.

I have just had another episode of neck or shoulder pain. So what the
devil is going to happen necks?

I think it won't be in Vanuatu. Tonga / Fiji then and I wish I could
find a list of smaller than 4 M. quakes in that region.

Petra, you reading this?

This is what I mean:
26th October 2008:
2.7 M. @ 09:35. 40.3 N. 124.7 W. Offshore N Cal.
4.9 M. @ 09:27. 40.3 N. 124.7 W. Offshore N Cal.

I am not sure magnitude is being worked out the way it counts in
relation to the rest of geo-physics.

You don't for example add a 2.7 to a 4.9 and get a 7.6.

But they have had that effect on the weather.

Which leaves my presumptions about the rearrangements of my lunar
codes all to cock. That should please some.

Losers!

Then there is all that stuff following it in the same place in the.
Unimak Island region of Alaska.

*******

With a spate of quakes no larger than 5.7 M. since the 23rd, it
behoves me to add these Unimak Island ones up thus:

2008/10/27

3.2 M. 06:58 54.7 -163.6 Unimak Island Region
2.5 M. 06:56 54.6 -163.5 Unimak Island Region
5.7

2.7 M. 06:11 54.6 -163.5 Unimak Island Region
3.2 M. 06:04 54.6 -163.5 Unimak Island Region
5.9

I remember when I first started to puzzle over the appearance of these
double quakes and noticed that they gave way to some change in the
weather that I could not fathom the reason for.

I already had it in mind that a magnitude 7 or greater quake would
have that effect and not only that effect but prior to it, the weather
would not run true.

And here we have the reason. I had already been thinking along the
lines of marking down the change instigators and for me this crunches
the numbers.

I humbly give praise to god on the matter as I am not the sort of man
to be considered clever.

But I am also not the kind of a man to get god's blessing. So that
cuts both ways. Maybe if I cleaned up my act and started treating the
divs on here with a bit more respect.

But that is an hard task for me. I fear neither god or men. Time I
started.

So having stated the law laid down by yrs trly I am stuck explaining
these from a while ago (see top of post.)

5.2 05/21. 23:23. 4.4 S 101.1 E southern Sumatra
5.4 05/21. 22:23. 4.1 S. 101.2 E. southern Sumatra
5.3 05/21. 20:17. 4.2 S. 102.5 E. southern Sumatra

5.1 05/21. 02:46. 10.0 S. 150.9 E. eastern New Guinea reg
5.1 05/21. 01:30. 10.0 S 150.9 E. eastern New Guinea reg

Jumping to a conclusion, the reason they are not 15.9 M and 10.2 M is
that they are too far apart. Consecutivity must not be supposed from
the list as it does not include vibrations from locations remote to
the USA.

Therefore it is supposable they are either consecutive if very close
together both chronologically and geographically and that difficulty
of separation is responsible in the miscalculation of intensities.

Which would explain the intensity of the Boxing Day Earthquake at
Banda Atjeh in 2004 and it would explain the behaviour of tidal waves.

Fewer people would have died on that day had a general warning been
issued due to the state of the North Atlantic Lows the days before.

Several locations nearer at hand would have had someone at least
noticing the same thing.

With a generous dose of grace that doesn't belong to me, I am going to
point no fingers at the dross that castigate me on these matters for I
too could have done better.

One thing only is for sure, no-one can blame god for not giving
warning, the signal were loud and clear. A quarter of a million and
more would have lived a little longer. 10 millions lost homes and
family, neighbours and businesses.

Not god's fault and not mine too neither.

*******

The Lows over Iceland have become two well defined ones after
elongating and they are now in the process of rotating around each
other.

In my opinion whatever the mechanism behind this phenomenon is, it is
the cause of the rotation of all cyclones and instrumental in
vorticity -whatever that is.

There was flooding in Britain's equivalent of the Yellowstone crater:

"An operation was under way today to rescue hundreds of marathon
runners stranded by heavy rain and flooding in the Lake District.

Mountain rescue teams from across the region were working to take the
competitors from the Original Mountain Marathon to safety.

The manager of Honister Slate Mine, near Keswick, Cumbria said he had
sheltered up to 300 of the runners and that some people were taken to
hospital suffering from hypothermia.":

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/oct/25/weather
http://www.timesandstar.co.uk/1.260649

The run was called off but not before entrants had scattered over the
region. Which highlights how easy it is to lose track of natural
hazards in an urbanised country such as Britain.

Even outdoor enthusiasts are too easily coddled living in large towns.
I suppose they forget that shelter in rural Britain is often difficult
to find in emergencies. There are not that many places more than a few
miles from a town.

But when you are a few miles from a town and not used to the
conditions, it is enough.

Correction:
The event was an over-nighter with fell-walkers prepared to stay out
in late October conditions which are mild in most spells.

*******

4.1 M. 51.3 N. 179.0 W. 2008/10/25 @ 06:45. Rat Islands.
(NEIC.)

Hardly rocket science that one. The American Pacific storm died out to
less than 20 knots without reaching far enough north to make a turn
(Fresh Breeze -Beaufort F5.)

4 M is quite large for the Aleutians which has a chain of volcanoes to
divert anything larger as well as a predisposition to hectic storms.
(There again one seems to follow the other with those, anyway.)

(I will have to rethink my definition of large magnitude quakes)

Now there is an high stretching toward the Carolinas and that means
IIRC (and I seldom do that) Andreanof Islands. I don't think the Fox
Islands ones are over yet though.

(It was Unimak Island)

*******

At least 48 people have been killed or are missing in Yemen, following
torrential rains.

Most of the casualties are in the eastern province of Hadhramawt, hit
by a tropical storm earlier this week.

An air rescue operation is under way. Damage is extensive because most
homes in the area are made of mud brick.

Reports say the flood-waters are threatening the historic high-rise
mud buildings of Shibam - a Unesco world heritage site.

A reporter for the Associated Press news agency in Shibam said he had
watched a two-storey mud-brick house disintegrate on Saturday.

There has also been severe flooding in the capital, Sanaa, in recent
days.

On Saturday at least six aircraft took off from Sanaa carrying tents,
food and medicine to Hadramawt province, airport officials told AFP
news agency.

Severe flash floods struck Yemen in 2006, leaving several dead and
sweeping away buildings:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7689795.stm

Some Saudi met:

http://www.pme.gov.sa/en/eindex.asp
http://www.pme.gov.sa/warning.asp
http://weather.pme.gov.sa/bits/sat-anim-web.php

No archives I could find and not much support for English. But how
much support does the MetO offer to other-languagees?

A small surge in the intensity of West US quakes and several reported
on the BBC despite their strength. (Odd.)

But not out of keeping with the behaviour of certain servers of a
certain California based archivist.

*******
Holiday's over, folks Weatherlawyer is back. (Though Google posts are
very late in coming online.)

A deep Low in Scandinavia (the recent ones from) Iceland and an
intense High SW of Britain have met in the Norwegian Sea to threaten
Britain with a very cold spell for this time of year. This sort of set
up brings a snow front.

I doubt we'll get snow as far south as Stoke so early in the year but
even so, I am not looking forward to it. I hope that there is
something good out of the economic depression, that if we get a 1/4"
fall, the commute will not be agony.

Having said that I prefer the cold to high summer and at least it
won't be raining.

Will it?

Anyway. On with the show:

The new spell is for anticyclonic stuff from tomorrow. The fact it
started after some recent seismic activity will have escaped all good
students of all earth sciences all over the earth.

Good-oh!

28th October 2008 @ 23:14 It's a classic and I should imagine it will
produce at least a 6.8M. But why would I wish for that?

*******
So it is my own backyard or a garden far away.

It may be where that damned Low is crossing a line. There is rotation
in that mix. But charts of 6 hour intervals are not going to prove it.

Nor it the absence of low range quakes in all the earth. I think I
have gone about as far as I can go with the NEIC lists but anything
larger will be impossible to handle.

There has to be a simpler way. That will need some serious sleeping
on.

I have just had another episode of neck or shoulder pain. So what the
devil is going to happen necks?

I think it won't be in Vanuatu.
Tonga / Fiji then and I wish I could find a list of smaller than 4 M.
quakes in that region.

That's another chapter closed in the Weatherlawyer Boke of Y Spelles.
Yncwire wythin pon ye very thynge.

On Oct 28, 10:42*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
21st to 28th October 2008: 11:55.

I have just been trawling through the stuff I wrote about the last
spell And during it:

"23rd to 30th August 2008: 23:50.

This is an easy one. Overcast with mists or drizzle rather than rain."

The first post started out as almost identical to what I wrote last
night.

Mercifully I abstained from any poetry on that spell. I rather feel my
fans are not going to be so lucky this time around.

Activity Storms this morning:
03B (Gulf of Aden)
Asma (South Indian)

For the whole previous spell:

Fay * * 06L * * NAT * * 15to 24 August *55kt
Nuri * *13W * * NWP * * 17 to 22 August 95kt
Julio * 11E * * NEP * * 23 to 26 August 45kt
- * * * 14W * * NWP * * 26 to28 August *35kt

No North Atlantic hurricanes but IIRC it was a breeder for the week
after.

So all of you sailors take warning and see
Not to go following the Weatherlawyer
The words of this prophet bring ruin to thee.

*******

On May 22, 11:27 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:



2. For what it's worth I have a crick in my neck or right shoulder

Message #8 in Google's list:

http://groups.google.com/group/sci.g...se_frm/thread/...

Then #9 :

5.2 05/21. 23:23. 4.4 S 101.1 E southern Sumatra
5.4 05/21. 22:23. 4.1 S. 101.2 E. southern Sumatra
5.3 05/21. 20:17. 4.2 S. 102.5 E. southern Sumatra

5.1 05/21. 02:46. 10.0 S. 150.9 E. eastern New Guinea reg
5.1 05/21. 01:30. 10.0 S *150.9 E. eastern New Guinea reg

5.7 05/20. 17:08. 3.1 S. 101.5 E. southern Sumatra

I was too busy watching Fox Island and the Aleutians.

See how I suffer for the cause?

Well at least I now know the cause.

*******
Crap:
I wasn't too busy to catch this one if I had been able to:
6.3 M. *22nd Oct. 12:56 -18.4 * -175.40 Tonga.

But I didn't.
I can't say I was completely unaware of discomfort, just not 6.3 M of
it.
/Crap
*******

The North Atlantic chart is looking like a re-run of a few days ago.
"That" low seemed to suck in the one above it and one approaching from
Canada.

I know most of this stuff is subjective, the schema is something
decided by a man in an office not a collation of realities from
various weather stations.

Sort of...

But anyway those lows are now individuals once more.

Which begs these questions of perfect storms:
Why do they behave like that? Shouldn't these things be looking for
Highs to do that to?

Not having passed through the mill, I can honestly answer that one
quite easily. Highs come down from above. They are warm because of
adiabatics.

They are so large that the decompression inside them produces heat.
Yes right...

Eh?

Howsat again?
*******

OK. Let's approach this from another angle.

Like goes to like. Lows go to Lows because they run in the same
channels. But that explains all like attractions.

Oh goodie.
It was that obvious?

*******

So what causes unlike attractions. That would be interesting.

And talking about channels, how do highs climb down through the
atmosphere. How, for that matter, do Lows climb up?

That one's not so obvious is it?

*******

Diminishing returns.

In order of magnitude there are three questions and the last one is
the hardest, it has already been answered.

The first one is what causes vorticity.

The second one is: "When do you tell a mountain to get up and be
planted in the sky?".

And the third one is obvious.

*******

There is another Low nestling in the Bay of Places Unknown at the
mouth of the Denmark Strait. It is at 977 mb at the time of writing.
They all seem to be 97 ~something-or-other just there.

Maybe it is just me or the cycle for them at the moment.

Maybe if I look back to not all that long ago I will find they don't
all wait until they are 980 before they cross Iceland or go to 975 or
lower before carrying on up between Greenland and Iceland.

Some of them choose to go up the Davis Strait. And some leap onto
Greenland itself.

I wonder how, not why. For all I know and I posses not inconsiderable
skills of ignorance in that specific, someone already knows the answer
to that.

It's just that I was asleep at the wheel that day. Or I missed the
other lectures. Perhaps I just need to ask Google the right questions.

Why do some lows go up the Davis Strait? doesn't do it for me.

This came close: http://www.faa.gov/airports_airtraff...ications/atpub...
with: "Why do some low pressure areas go up the Davis Strait?"

Since it concerns commerce (and considerable savings in fuel and life
in economic terms always gets money for research) you'd think it would
be easy to find the answer. Wouldn't you?

"Summary
If you have found this chapter on the NAT meteorological environment
difficult to assimilate, it is primarily because of the complex and
often quick changing nature of the weather over the NAT Region."

But they don't say anything.

If you thought that was difficult boy, are you in the wrong place
reading the wrong thread at the wrong time.

Go and play war of the worlds or something less tedious.

*******

I used to write :
"Ridges cols or troughs." for this spell type.

That was in my ignorance and a simpler world. (The world is always
simpler for the ignorant and they, quite rightly, will not be
disabused without abuse.)

It was my idea that the country would be surrounded by a low pressure
system adjacent to an high then another low then another high and that
one would dominate Britain sending in a ridge or a trough.

Until then or during any lapse, a col would be my definition of the
weather.

At the moment all the lows are gathered in the west. This side of the
Mid Atlantic ridge, so no going back in this spell. They must either
go up north to Norway or to cross England as a trough of low pressure
extending, amoeba like, to the North Sea where it would probably enter
the Low Countries or go up the North Sea to Denmark or the Baltic.

Had this stage of things occurred towards the end of the spell I might
even hazard the guess that it could be dragged arse backwards across
the Ridge and end up in the Davis Strait.

I do have a collection of charts for that or you can pick them up
yourself from Leeds University.

The server links are he http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dgx44d4z_11dwwjdxcx&hl=en

We have enjoyed two days of nice weather under a stream of contours
that varied from 1000mb in Scotland to 1024 in England thus the
central pressure line drawn is or was 1016 mb. (the lower pressures
being closer together.)

Which is how I derive the fundamental pressure system in Britain in
these spells as 1016 mb.

OK, I am cheating but it's all in a good cause. Besides, I chose an
arbitrary centre for Britain as being the North Wales reach of the
Irish Sea. Which is somewhere that line runs through.

*******
Something happened around an hour back 22:00 23rd October 2008. I had
a sharp twinge in the Tongas.

If it shows up it could be another hour and more before it shows up on
the NEIC list. Can't wait.

Pity there isn't another run of phases going from 6 to 5 in the last
couple of years that I have good data for. I have some 3's to 6's and
some 3's to 5's:
And sheet 3 of this document: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?k...p3Xa-z2-fna5BQ

TD 17 E is a basker at the moment, as is that low in the US Mid-West.
When they cross their respective coasts, I dare say they will do so at
the same time or at least, the same date.

And produce a double header in the Aleutians. I dare say there are
plenty of details from previous runs that were similar.

Unfortunately I don't have the access to them that I might have. Too
bad. In a day or so we will see how accurate I am. That contusion of
Lows in the N Atlantic off Britain is looking familiar too. Pity about
the data available to me.

And my ability to use it.

But human life is cheap and if I get it wrong the dauntless will come
out to play. The scum, also wry, says.

********

Nope; Still getting twinges in the neck. Neck and left shoulder blade.
And clicking in the joint.

Going to be one of them nights.

Yup; here we go:

5.7 M. 24th @ 00:26. 26.2 S. 177.6 W. S. of Fiji Islands
4.8 M. 23rd @ 23:36. 18.0 S. 176.8 W. * Fiji Region.

Almost makes it bearable. Still going to be a bloody pain though.

Now would be a good time to discuss miracles. It's all in the timing.
And that is a problem here. Until you allow for travelling.

To travel some 8000 miles through the earth (some 145 degrees (that's
just outside the shadow zone isn't it?) is several miles less) but at
8000; it is 4000 mph.

Anyway all the technicalities aside there is one more large one due in
just under 2 hours. I had a bad twinge 5 or 10 minutes back. About
02:15.

Right then.

4.8 M. 24th @ 01:54. 3.2 S. 129.4 E. Seram, Indonesia.
4.7 M. 24th @ 00:58. 18.4 S. 176.6 W. Fiji Region.

Maybe there is one waiting appeal? Maybe I got the wires crossed
again. Or maybe having a twinge from the same thing that causes
earthquakes doesn't necessarily mean a quake will occur?

Or maybe I am on BST and forgot to allow for that. That's the problem
with miracles. You have to be a god to get the timing right. And I am
not a god.

The Lows above and west of Britain are sharply defined and they have
spread out in a line just like the set up that I remember from a
recent spell. That eventually went north of Siberia to hover there for
ages in the following spell.

Probably tied in with the behaviour of that Low smack in the centre of
the USA.

It's all getting very fraught.

938 mb. That is low.

The Low in the USA has started to go east. And nothing has shown up on
the NEIC lists for the twinges I had earlier. In fact nothing has
shown up on the NEIC lists since 5pm.

I think it odd but I am not sure that there should be something up. I
suppose it is only a couple of hours -by the time it gets the
clearance.

Plus or minus British Summer Time. Which changes to Greenwich Mean
tonight.

I am surprised there weren't more Tongan / Fijian quakes but events
all changed yesterday evening (UK.)

*******

So it is my own backyard or a garden far away.

It may be where that damned Low is crossing a line. There is rotation
in that mix. But charts of 6 hour intervals are not going to prove it.

Nor it the absence of low range quakes in all the earth. I think I
have gone about as far as I can go with the NEIC lists but anything
larger will be impossible to handle.

There has to be a simpler way. That will need some serious sleeping
on.

I have just had another episode of neck or shoulder pain. So what the
devil is going to happen necks?

I think it won't be in Vanuatu. Tonga / Fiji then and I wish I could
find a list of smaller than 4 M. quakes in that region.

Petra, you reading this?

This is what I mean:
26th October 2008:
2.7 M. @ 09:35. 40.3 N. 124.7 W. Offshore N Cal.
4.9 M. @ 09:27. 40.3 N. 124.7 W. Offshore N Cal.

I am not sure magnitude is being worked out the way it counts in
relation to the rest of geo-physics.

You don't for example add a 2.7 to a 4.9 and get a 7.6.

But they have had that effect on the weather.

Which leaves my presumptions about the rearrangements of my lunar
codes all to cock. That should please some.

Losers!

Then there is all that stuff following it in the same place in the.
Unimak Island region of Alaska.

*******

With a spate of quakes no larger than 5.7 M. since the 23rd, it
behoves me to add these Unimak Island ones up thus:

2008/10/27

3.2 M. *06:58 * 54.7 * *-163.6 *Unimak Island Region
2.5 M. *06:56 54.6 * * *-163.5 *Unimak Island Region
5.7

2.7 M. *06:11 54.6 * * *-163.5 *Unimak Island Region
3.2 M. *06:04 54.6 * * *-163.5 *Unimak Island Region
5.9

I remember when I first started to puzzle over the appearance of these
double quakes and noticed that they gave way to some change in the
weather that I could not fathom the reason for.

I already had it in mind that a magnitude 7 or greater quake would
have that effect and not only that effect but prior to it, the weather
would not run true.

And here we have the reason. I had already been thinking along the
lines of marking down the change instigators and for me this crunches
the numbers.

I humbly give praise to god on the matter as I am not the sort of man
to be considered clever.

But I am also not the kind of a man to get god's blessing. So that
cuts both ways. Maybe if I cleaned up my act and started treating the
divs on here with a bit more respect.

But that is an hard task for me. I fear neither god or men. Time I
started.

So having stated the law laid down by yrs trly I am stuck explaining
these from a while ago (see top of post.)

5.2 05/21. 23:23. 4.4 S 101.1 E southern Sumatra
5.4 05/21. 22:23. 4.1 S. 101.2 E. southern Sumatra
5.3 05/21. 20:17. 4.2 S. 102.5 E. southern Sumatra

5.1 05/21. 02:46. 10.0 S. 150.9 E. eastern New Guinea reg
5.1 05/21. 01:30. 10.0 S *150.9 E. eastern New Guinea reg

Jumping to a conclusion, the reason they are not 15.9 M and 10.2 M is
that they are too far apart. Consecutivity must not be supposed from
the list as it does not include vibrations from locations remote to
the USA.

Therefore it is supposable they are either consecutive if very close
together both chronologically and geographically and that difficulty
of separation is responsible in the miscalculation of intensities.

Which would explain the intensity of the Boxing Day Earthquake at
Banda Atjeh in 2004 and it would explain the behaviour of tidal waves.

Fewer people would have died on that day had a general warning been
issued due to the state of the North Atlantic Lows the days before.

Several locations nearer at hand would have had someone at least
noticing the same thing.

With a generous dose of grace that doesn't belong to me, I am going to
point no fingers at the dross that castigate me on these matters for I
too could have done better.

One thing only is for sure, no-one can blame god for not giving
warning, the signal were loud and clear. A quarter of a million and
more would have lived a little longer. 10 millions lost homes and
family, neighbours and businesses.

Not god's fault and not mine too neither.

*******

The Lows over Iceland have become two well defined ones after
elongating and they are now in the process of rotating around each
other.

In my opinion whatever the mechanism behind this phenomenon is, it is
the cause of the rotation of all cyclones and instrumental in
vorticity -whatever that is.

There was flooding in Britain's equivalent of the Yellowstone crater:

"An operation was under way today to rescue hundreds of marathon
runners stranded by heavy rain and flooding in the Lake District.

Mountain rescue teams from across the region were working to take the
competitors from the Original Mountain Marathon to safety.

The manager of Honister Slate Mine, near Keswick, Cumbria said he had
sheltered up to 300 of the runners and that some people were taken to
hospital suffering from hypothermia.":

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/oc...co.uk/1.260649

The run was called off but not before entrants had scattered over the
region. Which highlights how easy it is to lose track of natural
hazards in an urbanised country such as Britain.

Even outdoor enthusiasts are too easily coddled living in large towns.
I suppose they forget that shelter in rural Britain is often difficult
to find in emergencies. There are not that many places more than a few
miles from a town.

But when you are a few miles from a town and not used to the
conditions, it is enough.

Correction:
The event was an over-nighter with fell-walkers prepared to stay out
in late October conditions which are mild in most spells.

*******

4.1 M. 51.3 N. 179.0 W. 2008/10/25 @ 06:45. Rat Islands.
(NEIC.)

Hardly rocket science that one. The American Pacific storm died out to
less than 20 knots without reaching far enough north to make a turn
(Fresh Breeze -Beaufort F5.)

4 M is quite large for the Aleutians which has a chain of volcanoes to
divert anything larger as well as a predisposition to hectic storms.
(There again one seems to follow the other with those, anyway.)

(I will have to rethink my definition of large magnitude quakes)

Now there is an high stretching toward the Carolinas and that means
IIRC (and I seldom do that) Andreanof Islands. I don't think the Fox
Islands ones are over yet though.

(It was Unimak Island)

*******

At least 48 people have been killed or are missing in Yemen, following
torrential rains.

Most of the casualties are in the eastern province of Hadhramawt, hit
by a tropical storm earlier this week.

An air rescue operation is under way. Damage is extensive because most
homes in the area are made of mud brick.

Reports say the flood-waters are threatening the historic high-rise
mud buildings of Shibam - a Unesco world heritage site.

A reporter for the Associated Press news agency in Shibam said he had
watched a two-storey mud-brick house disintegrate on Saturday.

There has also been severe flooding in the capital, Sanaa, in recent
days.

On Saturday at least six aircraft took off from Sanaa carrying tents,
food and medicine to Hadramawt province, airport officials told AFP
news agency.

Severe flash floods struck Yemen in 2006, leaving several dead and
sweeping away buildings:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7689795.stm

Some Saudi met:
*http://www.pme.gov.sa/en/eindex.asphttp://www.pme.gov.sa/warning.asphttp://weather.pme.gov.sa/bits/sat-anim-web.php

No archives I could find and not much support for English. But how
much support does the MetO offer to other-languagees?

A small surge in the intensity of West US quakes and several reported
on the BBC despite their strength. (Odd.)

But not out of keeping with the behaviour of certain servers of a
certain California based archivist.

*******
Holiday's over, folks Weatherlawyer is back. (Though Google posts are
very late in coming online.)

A deep Low in Scandinavia (the recent ones from) Iceland and an
intense High SW of Britain have met in the Norwegian Sea to threaten
Britain with a very cold spell for this time of year. This sort of set
up brings a snow front.

I doubt we'll get snow as far south as Stoke so early in the year but
even so, I am not looking forward to it. I hope that there is
something good out of the economic depression, that if we get a 1/4"
fall, the commute will not be agony.

Having said that I prefer the cold to high summer and at least it
won't be raining.

Will it?

Anyway. On with the show:

The new spell is for anticyclonic stuff from tomorrow. The fact it
started after some recent seismic activity will have escaped all good
students of all earth sciences all over the earth.

Good-oh!

28th October 2008 @ 23:14 It's a classic and I should imagine it will
produce at least a 6.8M. But why would I wish for that?

*******
So it is my own backyard or a garden far away.

It may be where that damned Low is crossing a line. There is rotation
in that mix. But charts of 6 hour intervals are not going to prove it.

Nor it the absence of low range quakes in all the earth. I think I
have gone about as far as I can go with the NEIC lists but anything
larger will be impossible to handle.

There has to be a simpler way. That will need some serious sleeping
on.

I have just had another episode of neck or shoulder pain. So what the
devil is going to happen necks?

I think it won't be in Vanuatu.
Tonga / Fiji then and I wish I could find a list of smaller than 4 M.
quakes in that region.

That's another chapter closed in the Weatherlawyer Boke of Y Spelles.
Yncwire wythin pon ye very thynge.


New Activity/Unrest:
Colima, México. Kliuchevskoi, Central Kamchatka, Russia. Kuchinoerabu-
Jima, Ryukyu Islands, Japan. Popocatépetl, México. Villarrica, Central
Chile. White Island, New Zealand

Ongoing Activity:
Chaitén, Southern Chile. Galeras, Colombia. Karymsky, Eastern
Kamchatka. Kilauea, Hawaii USA. Nevado-del-Huila, Colombia. Rabaul,
New Britain. Semeru, Eastern Java, Indonesia. Shiveluch, Central
Kamchatka, Russia. Soufrière Hills, Montserrat. Suwanose-Jima, Ryukyu
Islands, Japan. Tungurahua, Ecuador. Ubinas, Perú