21st to 28th October 2008: 11:55.

Man, I write some maudlin trash. I am glad I don't have to read it. I
wonder what drugs people like Skywise and Dawlish are on to make them
want to.

I suppose it takes all sorts.

I have just been trawling through the stuff I wrote about the last
spell ...during it.:

"23rd to 30th August 2008: 23:50.

This is an easy one. Overcast with mists or drizzle rather than rain."

The first post started out as almost identical to what I wrote last
night. Mercifully I abstained from any poetry on that spell.

I rather feel my fans are not going to be so lucky this time around.

Activity Storms this morning:
03B (Gulf of Aden)
Asma (South Indian)

From the Met Office for the whole previous spell:

Fay 06L NAT 15to 24 August 55kt
Nuri 13W NWP 17 to 22 August 95kt
Julio 11E NEP 23 to 26 August 45kt
- 14W NWP 26 to28 August 35kt

No North Atlantic hurricanes but IIRC it was a breeder for the week
after.

So all of you sailors take warning and see
Not to go following the Weatherlawyer
The words of this prophet bring ruin to thee.

On May 22, 11:27 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

2. For what it's worth I have a crick in my neck or right shoulder

Message #8 in Google's list:
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.g...gst&q=numbers#

Then #9 :

5.2 05/21. 23:23. 4.4 S 101.1 E southern Sumatra
5.4 05/21. 22:23. 4.1 S. 101.2 E. southern Sumatra
5.3 05/21. 20:17. 4.2 S. 102.5 E. southern Sumatra
5.1 05/21. 02:46. 10.0 S. 150.9 E. eastern New Guinea reg
5.1 05/21. 01:30. 10.0 S 150.9 E. eastern New Guinea reg,
5.7 05/20. 17:08. 3.1 S. 101.5 E. southern Sumatra

I was too busy watching Fox Island and the Aleutians.

See how I suffer for the cause?

Well at least I now know the cause.
******

The North Atlantic chart is looking like a re-run of a few days ago.
"That" low seemed to suck in the one above it and one approaching from
Canada.

I know most of this stuff is subjective, the schema is something
decided by a man in an office not a collation of realities from
various weather stations.

Sort of...

But anyway those lows are now individuals once more.

Which begs these questions of perfect storms:
Why do they behave like that? Shouldn't these things be looking for
Highs to do that to?

I know most of this stuff is subjective, the schema is something
decided by a man in an office not a collation of realities from
various weather stations.

Sort of...

But anyway those lows are now individuals once more.

Which begs these questions of perfect storms:
Why do they behave like that? Shouldn't these things be looking for
Highs to do that to?

Not having passed through the mill, I can honestly answer that one
quite easily. Highs come down from above. They are warm because of
adiabatics.

They are so large that the decompression inside them produces heat.
Yes right...

Eh?

Howsat again?
*******

OK. Let's approach this from another angle.

Like goes to like. Lows go to Lows because they run in the same
channels. But that explains all like attractions.

Oh goodie.
It was that obvious?

*******

So what causes unlike attractions. That would be interesting.

And talking about channels, how do highs climb down through the
atmosphere. How, for that matter, do Lows climb up?

That one's not so obvious is it?

*******

Diminishing returns.

In order of magnitude there are three questions and the last one is
the hardest, it has already been answered.

The first one is what causes vorticity.

The second one is: "When do you tell a mountain to get up and be
planted in the sky?".

And the third one is obvious.

*******

There is another Low nestling in the Bay of Places Unknown at the
mouth of the Denmark Strait. It is at 977 mb at the time of writing.
They all seem to be 97 ~something or other just there.

Maybe it is just me or the cycle for them at the moment.

Maybe if I look back to not all that long ago I will find they don't
all wait until they are 980 before they cross Iceland or go to 975 or
lower before carrying on up between Greenland and Iceland.

Some of them choose to go up the Davis Strait. And some leap onto
Greenland itself.

I wonder how, not why. For all I know and I posses not inconsiderable
skills of ignorance in that specific, someone already knows the answer
to that.

It's just that I was asleep at the wheel that day. Or I missed the
other lectures. Perhaps I just need to ask Google the right questions.

Why do some lows go up the Davis Strait? doesn't do it for me.

This came close:
http://www.faa.gov/airports_airtraff...NAO/NAOC02.HTM
with: "Why do some low pressure areas go up the Davis Strait?"

Since it concerns commerce -and considerable savings in fuel and life
in economic terms always gets money for research, you'd think it would
be easy to find the answer. Wouldn't you?

"Summary
If you have found this chapter on the NAT meteorological environment
difficult to assimilate, it is primarily because of the complex and
often quick changing nature of the weather over the NAT Region."

But they don't say anything.

If you thought that was difficult you are in the wrong place reading
this at the wrong time.

Go and play war of the worlds or something less tedious.

On Oct 21, 11:01*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On May 22, 11:27 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:



2. For what it's worth I have a crick in my neck or right shoulder

Message #8 in Google's list: http://groups.google.com/group/sci.g...se_frm/thread/...

Then #9 :

5.2 05/21. 23:23. 4.4 S 101.1 E southern Sumatra
5.4 05/21. 22:23. 4.1 S. 101.2 E. southern Sumatra
5.3 05/21. 20:17. 4.2 S. 102.5 E. southern Sumatra
5.1 05/21. 02:46. 10.0 S. 150.9 E. eastern New Guinea reg
5.1 05/21. 01:30. 10.0 S *150.9 E. eastern New Guinea reg,
5.7 05/20. 17:08. 3.1 S. 101.5 E. southern Sumatra

I was too busy watching Fox Island and the Aleutians.

I wasn't too busy to catch this one if I had been able to:
6.3 M. 22nd Oct. 12:56 -18.4 -175.40 Tonga.

But I didn't.
I can't say I was completely unaware of discomfort, just not 6.3 M of
it.

I used to write :
"Ridges cols or troughs." for this spell type.

That was in my ignorance and a simpler world. (The world is always
simpler for the ignorant and they, quite rightly, will not be
disabused without abuse.)

It was my idea that the country would be surrounded by a low pressure
system adjacent to an high then another low then another high and that
one would dominate Britain sending in a ridge or a trough.

Until then or during any lapse, a col would be define the weather.

At the moment all the lows are gathered in the west. This side of the
Mid Atlantic ridge, so no going back in this spell. They must either
go up north to Norway or to cross England as a trough of low pressure
extending, amoeba like, to the North Sea where it would probably enter
the Low Countries or go up the North Sea to Denmark or the Baltic.

Had this stage of things occurred towards the end of the spell I might
even hazard the guess that it could be dragged arse backwards across
the Ridge and end up in the Dais Strait.

I do have a collection of charts for that or you can pick them up
yourself from Leeds University.

The server links are he
http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dgx44d4z_11dwwjdxcx&hl=en

We have enjoyed two days of nice weather under a stream of contours
that varied from 1000mb in Scotland to 1024 in England thus the
central pressure line drawn iss or was 1016 mb. (the lower pressures
beig closer together.)

Which is how I derive the fundamental pressure system in Britain in
these spells is 1016.

OK I am cheating but it's all in a good cause. Besides I chose an
arbitrary centre for Britain as being the North Wales reach of the
Irish Sea. Which is somewhere that line runs through.

I wasn't too busy to catch this one if I had been able to:
6.3 M. *22nd Oct. 12:56 -18.4 * -175.40 Tonga.

But I didn't.
I can't say I was completely unaware of discomfort,
just not 6.3 M of it.

Not this one either:
6.2 M. 23rd @ 10:05. 2.6 S. 145.6 E. Admiralty Isles, PNG.

Something happened around an hour back 22:00 23rd October 2008. I had
a sharp twinge in the Tongas.

If it shows up it could be another hour and more before it shows up on
the NEIC list. Can't wait.

Pity there isn't another run of phases going from 6 to 5 in the last
couple of years that I have good data for. I have some 3's to 6's and
some 3's to 5's:
And sheet 3 of this document:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?k...p3Xa-z2-fna5BQ

TD 17 E is a basker at the moment as is that low in the US Mid-West.
When they cross their respective coasts, I dare say they will do so at
the same time or at least, the same date.

And produce a double header in the Aleutians. I dare say there are
plenty of details from previous runs that were similar.

Unfortunately I don't have the access to them that I might have. Too
bad. In a day or so we will see how accurate I am. That contusion of
Lows in the N Atlantic off Britain is looking familiar too. Pity about
the data available to me.

And my ability to use it.

But human life is cheap and if I get it wrong the dauntless will come
out to play. The scum, also wry, says.

On Oct 23, 11:38*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Something happened around an hour back 22:00 23rd October 2008. I had
a sharp twinge in the Tongas.

Now would be a good time to discuss miracles. It's all in the timing.
And that is a problem here. Until you allow for travelling.

To travel some 8000 miles through the earth (some 145 degrees (that's
just outside the shadow zone isn't it?) is several miles less) but at
8000; it is 4000 mph.

Anyway all the technicalities aside, there is one more large one due
in just under 2 hours. I had a bad twinge 5 or 10 minutes back. About
02:15.

Right then.