FXUS04 KWBC 270658
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
257 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 27/1200 UTC THRU JUL 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


....DAY 1...

....SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPR RDG OVR THE SCNTRL U.S. IS FCST TO EXPAND TO BOTH THE EAST
AND WEST CSTS OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS...WITH A RIBBON OF STGR WRLYS
REMAINING ALNG THE U.S./CAN BORDER. SVRL SHRTWVS ARE FCST TO PUSHG
RAPIDLY EWD WITH MDLS CONTG TO SHOW SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH
MIDLVL ENERGY THAT IS AGN NEGATIVELY AFFECTING QPF. AGREEMENT IN
THE GUIDANCE ON DAY 1 IS BETTER THAT PAST DAYS.

....NERN U.S....
LINGERING SHWRS ARE PSBL THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN AS A RATHER COLD
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCD WITH A POTENT VORT EXITS THE REGION.

....GULF CST TO SERN U.S. CST AND FL...
DEEP MSTR...PWS 2.00-2.25 INCHES REMAIN DRAPED OVR THE REGION. WV
SAT PICS SHOW SVRL WEAK/EMBEDDED SHRTWVS THAT WL DRIFT SLOLY
OVERHEAD AND PROVIDE SOME STGR LIFT. WV SATL LOOPS SHOWS THE STGR
UPR DIFL FLOW OVR THE CNTRL GULF CSTL AREAS. SEA BREEZE CVRG ALNG
WITH OLD OUTFLOW BNDRYS WL BE THE MAIN LOLVL FOCI...WHILE STG
HEATG HELPS DESTABILIZE THE ATMOS LATER THIS MRNG. SOME ADDTNL
MSTR COULD GET DRAWN INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE PD FM THE TRPCL
WAVE MOVG NWWD FM THE CARIBBEAN.

....SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES INTO ERN GRT BASIN...
RICH PLUME OF MSTR CONTS TO LIFT INTO/ACRS THE REGION...WITH
MDLS/SATL LOOPS SHOWG SVRL EMBEDDED SHRTWVS THAT WL PROVIDE STGR
LIFT. A BROAD ENTRNC REGION TO THE LRG SCALE UPR JET WL REMAIN OVR
THIS REGION. PWS ARE FCST TO BE ARND ONE INCH IN SOME AREAS...WITH
K-INDICES ARND 40 THIS AFTN. THESE VALUES ARE SLGTLY LWR THAN PRVS
DAYS. MID/UPR FLOW IS FCST TO INCRS THRU THE PD THAT WL AID WITH
ACCEL CVNCTN TWD THE NE AND HELP BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE AREAS FM NCNTRL NM INTO CO SEEM LIKE
THE MORE LKLY REGIONS FOR MORE ORGANIZED CNVCTN THIS AFTN AS AN
ELONGATED SHRTWV TROF PUSHES TWD THIS REGION.

....CNTRL PLNS INTO UPR MIDWEST/GRT LKS...
CURRENT MCS MOVG THRU THE UPR MIDWEST SHLD MOV INTO/ACRS THE GRT
LKS TDA WITH CONTD LGT/MOD RNFL AS THE SYS MOVS AWAY FM THE DEEPER
MSTR/INSTBLTY. CLEAR MIDLVL MCV THIS MRNG OVR MN SHLD HELP KEEP
PCPN GOING THRU THE DAY. FOCUS WL THEN RETURN SWWD LATER TDA/TNGT
AS THE ASSOCD SFC BNDRY BCMS DRAPED ACRS THE REGION AND NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID/UPR FLOW. MSTR WL INCRS ALNG THE BNDRY AS
CONTD LOLVL SRLY FLOW BRINGS GULF MSTR NWD...WHILE THE PLUME OF
RICH MID/HI LVL MSTR CONTS TO FLOW INTO THE REGION ARND THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SCNTRL U.S. RIDGE. THE BIGGER MSTR INCRS SHLD BE
LATER TDA/TNGT AS THE LLJ INCRS/VEERS WITH MDLS SHOWG RATHER STG
8H MSTR FLUX INTO THE REGION THAT WL BOOST THE LOLVL THETA-E
RDG/INCRS CVRG AND BOOST PWS TO AOA TWO INCHES. NAM/GFS AND NOW
THE 00Z EC ALL ARE SHOWG PWS 2.00-2.25 INCHES WITH THE NAM SHOWG
VALUES NEAR 2.50 INCHES. THESE ARE WELL ABV SEASONAL NRMLS...BUT
COULD BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE DUE TO MDLS SHOWG SOME
FEEDBACK. PW ANOMALIES SHLD STILL BE 2-3 STDS ABV NRML...WHICH IS
VRY HI FOR MID SUMMER. UPR FLOW WL REMAIN DIFL THRU THE PD WITH
SVRL IMPULSES RIDING OVR THE BNDRY AND PROVIDG STG LIFT. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE MIDLVL WAVE OVR NERN CO THIS MRNG WL BE THE SYS THAT
INITIATES CNVCTN LATER THIS AFTN OVR THE CNTRL PLNS WITH A SCND
SYS APRCHG LATER TNGT FM THE CNTRL ROCKIES. MDLS SHOW ENUF VEERING
OF THE LLJ LATER TNGT THAT WL RESULT IN BACKBLDG CNVCTN AND INCRSD
RISK OF HVY RNFL. SREF/GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE PLOTS OF 1-2 INCH RNFL
AMTS ARE IN RATHER STG AGREEMENT WITH A SWATH OF HVY RNFL THRU
THIS REGION. BIG CHALLENGE WL BE THE EXACT PSTN OF THE EFFECTIVE
LOLVL BNDRY FOR CNVCTV INITIATION/DVLPMENT. NORMALLY WOULD HAVE
TAKEN RNFL FARTHER S...DUE TO NRML BIAS IN NAM/GFS WITH E-W MCS
MOVEMENT...BUT THE STG SCNTRL U.S. RIDGE SHLD TEND TO KEEP THE SWD
MOVEMENT IN CHECK. 00Z ARW AND NAM-NESTED RUNS ARE SUPPORTING A
RIBBON OF 2-4 INCH RNFL ACRS NRN IA INTO SRN WI/NRN IL TNGT. THESE
MDLS TEND TO BE OVERDONE WITH AMTS...BUT THEIR PSTNS HAVE BEEN
SHOWN TO BE GOOD. LATEST HI-RES TEST BED RESULTS SHOWED THE
NAM-NESTED DID VERY WELL AND WAS THE PREFERRED MDL MANY TIMES
DURING THE EXPERIMENT. LATER ARRIVING GUID...INCLUDING A NEW SUITE
OF ENSEMBLE GUID...COULD LEAD TO INCRSG AMTS AS THE PTNL IS ALRDY
IN PLACE.

....NRN HI PLNS...
MIDLVL SHRTWV ENERGY APRCHG THE REGION LATER TDA WL PROVIDE STGR
LIFT WITH MOST GUID INDICATING CNVCTN DVLPG AND THEN RIDING SEWD
TNGT INTO THE CNTRL PLNS. MSTR WL BE LIMITED THRU THIS
REGION...BUT AN INCRSG ERLY/SERLY LLJ TNGT SHLD HELP TO BOOST PWS
AND PSBLY SUPPORT A SMALL MCS MOVG INTO THE HI PLNS. THIS REGION
COULD SEE AN EXPANSION OF PCPN COVERAGE/AMTS WITH ARRIVAL OF LATER
GUID.

ECKERT

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/12Z
0.01 483662 479656 476653 473651 468650 460653 454657 449662
445670 444681 444689 446694 447699 446707 443714 445719
443723 442728 446730 448729 454724 460707 465702 472694
476688 480680 484672 483662
0.01 532190 534184 533179 531170 528160 524149 523140 522134
520131 516124 513120 510118 505113 499113 497106 496101
494098 488100 485107 482112 481119 481122 478128 477135
481142 491153 488157 485162 485168 488176 493185 494193
492203 490207 487209 483209 479212 484219 490224 494232
497241 505255 508259 512257 512253 511242 509235 506227
505219 506211 509207 512205 518202 524199 529194 532190
0.01 434048 443059 451064 461062 468053 470040 466030 462022
461007 453001 450991 445973 439968 437962 444952 454947
464944 479944 497943 510932 515900 499840 482792 463761
455759 447762 441767 437771 433774 430778 426785 421797
419810 417824 415838 415845 416853 415860 416869 415880
413883 413887 412897 410904 409915 401940 397952 394964
389978 384988 381995 377002 375008 371015 366023 363026
357030 347034 337038 330040 324044 323046 323052 327058
336063 335065 341066 351064 354068 350072 347073 345071
343069 339069 333071 330073 325079 325084 327088 329094
332099 337104 340105 344104 352099 356101 360100 363096
370094 373093 374101 379103 384099 389094 393094 395097
397094 400088 405084 409079 415075 412068 411064 411059
409053 406048 404044 405040 402027 405021 408016 415013
420016 420031 428040 434048
0.01 453101 454097 453094 450093 447094 444096 444097 441099
440100 441103 441104 441106 440108 441110 444110 445109
447107 448105 450104 453102 453101
0.01 454085 456080 453077 452076 450074 447072 444071 443072
444075 445076 447079 448080 450083 453085 454085
0.01 357724 353715 351713 348714 343721 341727 337736 333743
325758 318771 311783 306790 300795 295799 290802 280803
273803 268800 262798 257796 251798 246798 243798 241801
241810 241814 242818 246824 251829 262836 269840 274844
279853 281859 281865 282872 281881 279897 274931 273940
274948 274957 276964 281966 284965 287965 293961 299959
305954 310948 313942 316934 318927 326892 330877 333870
336863 341857 346851 350842 352838 352832 349828 346829
341835 337841 333847 326846 325835 326826 329820 336806
343792 350778 353769 355760 357751 358743 359732 357724
0.01 409114 411111 411107 412099 409095 406097 404102 402102
398099 395099 395102 394109 389110 384112 377119 374122
374126 372129 373131 376133 379131 385124 391120 394115
397118 400117 403116 406117 409114
0.01 322121 320107 319102 321098 320093 318090 315086 313081
310075 306068 301058 300054 302050 307047 309041 307034
304029 300028 296030 283031 279035 274038 267039 260041
258044 256049 257054 257057 254059 250061 249064 249068
253074 261080 270087 277095 285103 303119 312123 319124
322121
0.25 420867 418887 414910 409934 402958 390986 385000 388006
393003 401993 408988 412988 416991 419989 426978 433959
443941 454929 466920 475908 475888 472871 469852 463829
458812 451797 445789 437792 433796 428802 426808 424814
423827 423834 422841 420867
0.25 438005 444011 449023 448035 443040 436037 432030 430020
429011 430003 433003 438005
0.25 372032 371039 372047 374052 377054 380056 383058 384059
384061 385063 387063 389065 391067 394069 397071 400071
401068 400064 398061 398058 399056 397053 394050 393045
393043 393040 392035 392028 390019 388018 385018 382020
379022 376025 372032
0.25 339761 338758 335758 332762 328771 323783 317793 314801
311807 308814 304819 296823 287825 278822 268817 259812
255816 262824 276831 286844 288863 287898 285926 287942
292946 302942 313915 317879 317857 316842 317831 320818
325808 333792 338772 339761
0.25 372062 370063 369064 369066 369067 372069 373072 373076
374079 376081 379080 382077 382075 381074 380071 381069
380064 379066 377068 376064 375063 372062
0.25 300081 295075 290068 286059 281053 274050 271050 270056
272068 272074 273078 280083 287087 290089 294086 297084
300081
0.50 376073 376075 376077 374077 374075 374073 376073
0.50 453873 452849 444826 441818 438810 433805 429809 427820
425839 422872 417918 412949 410963 413965 420962 427953
432947 441934 449918 452903 453885 453873
0.50 434014 433019 433025 437026 438021 436016 434014
0.50 381050 379049 378050 379052 381053 384054 385054 385055
386057 388057 389052 391051 392050 391047 391045 388044
388045 386046 385048 385050 383050 382050 381050
0.50 311851 309839 308832 307829 305829 298833 293837 292841
292850 293861 293871 293883 292893 293903 294909 294915
292925 292928 293934 295938 298937 306922 308918 309913
311902 310893 312881 312872 310861 311851
1.00 421904 421921 421931 425932 429931 433926 437918 438910
438900 437891 439872 438861 436852 435844 433836 429837
427845 426861 423879 421898 421904
1.00 306876 306873 306870 305867 303864 302864 300866 300868
300872 299875 299878 300881 300885 302887 302888 302887
304884 304883 305880 306877 306876
2.00 427899 424899 423904 425910 429907 429903 427899

$$

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