FXUS04 KWBC 122042
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
441 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 13/0000 UTC THRU JUL 16/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

....CO ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...

SOME SLGT PROGRESSION TO THE SYNOPTIC PATN IS FCST BY ALL THE
MDLS..AS THE ERN PAC/PAC NW CLOSED LOW DRIFTS INTO THE PAC NR AND
NRN GT BASIN AND DOWNSTREAM H5 RDG SLIDES INTO THE MS VLY BY THE
END OF THE PD. SWLY/WSWLY MID/UPR FLO BTWN THESE SYSTEMS WL BRING
H5 S/WV ENERGY FM THE SRN ROCKIES AND THE CNTRL/SRN GT BASIN THRU
THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS PD..WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY WELL DEFINED S/WV SEEN ON WTR VAPOR PIX ATTM ENTERING
CNTRL N.M.. ENHANCED LRG SCALE LIFT FM THESE S/WV IMPULSES ALG
WITH INCREASING MOIST ELY LOW LVL FLO INTO THE CO/SERN WY
FOOTHILLS SHLD TRIGGER MORE ORGANIZED CNVCTN LTR THIS AFTN AND
TNGT..WITH THE CNVCTN CONTG TO MOV EWD/ENEWD NR THE CREST OF THE
H5 RDG INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LTR TUE NGT AND WED..INTO WHAT SHLD
BE A STRENGTHENING SELY LOW LVL INFLO REGIME. FOR THE MOST
PART..THE MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO..WITH EVEN
THEIR QPFS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THUS..FOLLOWED THIS THINKING
CLOSELY..WITH A STRIPE OF 0.50-1.50 INCH RAIN XPCD FM NERN
CO/EXTRM SERN WY ENEWD INTO SERN SD..WITH SOME ISOLD HVIER TOTALS
PSBL.


....ERN KS/NERN OK EWD INTYO MO AND EXTRM NRN AR...

RATHER SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED MID/UPR LVL LOW NOW ENTERING EXTRM
WRN OK IS FAR ENUF S OF THE STGR FLO TO MOV ONLY VRY SLOLY EWD
THIS PD THRU THE MEAN H5 RDG AXIS. SOME MODEST SLY LOW LVL FLO
AND DEEPER MSTR ARE SETTING UP E OF THE SYS..SO XPC AN INCREASE IN
CNVCTN WITH IT..MAINLY FM SERN KS/NERN OK INTO MO AND EXTRM NRN
AR. THE POTNL IS THERE FOR SOME ISOLD HVIER RAINS..GIVEN HI MSTR
AVBLTY AND OVERALL SLO MOVEMENT OF THE SYS..BUT KEPT AREAL AVG
AMTS IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH RANGE..GIVEN LACK OF ANY OTHER FOCUSING
MECHANISM. NCEP MDL QPFS SEEMED TO HAVE A BTR HANDLE ON THIS
EVENT THAN THE UKMET HIRES AND ECMWF HIRES MDLS..BOTH OF WHICH
SEEMED TOO LIGHT.


....GULF CST...
VRY HI PWS RMNG IN PLACE ALG WITH WK IMPULSES MOVG WWD ALG THE
GULF CST UNDERNEATH THE H5 RDG WL SUPPORT ENHANCED CNVCTN ALG MUCH
OF THE ERN/CNTRL GULF CST AREA..ESP LTR WED MRNG AND AFTN DURG
TIME OF MAX HEATING. MUCH OF SUITE OF QPF GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST SOME 0.50-1.00 INCH RNFL AMTS..WITH SOME
ISOLD HVIER TOTALS PSBL ESP VCNTY OF THE LWR MS VLY.


....PAC NW...
THE UNSEASONABLY STG CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE NWRN CST IS FCST
SIMILARLY BY THE MDLS TO DRIFT INLAND DURG THE PD. NOT A LOT OF
ONSHORE FLO WITH THIS FEATURE..BUT COLD POOL ALOFT WL BRING
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASE IN SHWRS/TSTMS..WITH LGT TO
LCLY MDT RAINS XPCD OVR A LRG PTN OF WA INTO NRN PARTS OF OR. MDL
QPFS SIMILAR HERE AND GENLY TOOK A BLEND OF THEM.

DAYS 2 AND 3...

....NORTHWEST U.S....

A DEEP UPR TROF/CLSD LOW WILL PIVOT INLAND ACRS THE PAC NW ON WED
BEFORE LIFTING NEWD BACK INTO SWRN CANADA BY THU. ADDITIONAL
SHRTWV ENERGY THOUGH DROPPING SEWD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
UPR TROF THOUGH WILL HELP REINFORCE THE HT FALLS AGAIN BY FRI JUST
OFFSHORE THE PAC NW. PERSISTENT COLD CYC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHWRS FOR THE WA CASCADES
AND COASTAL RANGES...BUT AMTS HERE SHD BE RATHER LGT.

HOWEVER FARTHER INLAND...LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS ASSOCD WITH SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE INVOF NRN MT. LOWERING SFC
PRESSURES JUST EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ASSOC WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HT FALLS WILL HELP DRIVE INCREASING ERLY/SELY H85
FLOW INTO MT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR NOTABLY HIGHER PWATS FROM THE
N CNTRL PLAINS TO ADVANCE NWWD TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT MT HIGH PLAINS. VORT ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHING
THE SWLY JET CORE ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR SOME CLUSTERS OR
SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS NWRN MT INVOF THE BITTERROOTS AND STRETCHING EWD
ACRS NRN MT. HPC QPF FAVORED A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF...12Z UKMET
AND THE 12Z GFS WHICH HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS.

....SOUTHWEST INTO THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...

MONSOONAL MSTR IS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT THROUGH THE PD AS HT FALLS
BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST ALLOWING FOR AN INTRUSION
OF DRIER SWLY FLOW ALOFT AT LEAST FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
PLUME OF DEEPER MONSOONAL MSTR SHOULD BE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST OUT TWD THE HIGH PLAINS. HENCE...EXPECT
ONLY WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS. RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
BE LGT.

....CNTRL/NRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST/WRN GRT LAKES...

'RING OF FIRE' CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THIS REGION WITH
ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPMENT AND DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION EXPECTED.
THE FOCUS WED NIGHT/EARLY THU WILL BE ACRS ESP THE ERN DAKOTAS AND
INTO NRN IA/MN AND WI AS A WELL-DEFINED MID LVL SHRTWV IMPULSE IS
PROGGED BY THE GUIDANCE TO EJECT OUT ACRS THIS AREA. HVY
NOCTURNALLY AIDED CONVECTIVE RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH WHAT SHOULD
BE A CLASSIC MCC EVOLUTION. THE EJECTING SHRTWV IMPULSE WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH A NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED LOW LVL JET TO THE ORDER
OF 50 KTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM FRONT AND HIGH PWATS AOA 2
INCHES. THIS WILL SUPPORT A LARGE AND ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMTS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME EXCESSIVE TOTALS
LOCALLY. THIS MSTR AND ENERGY WILL TRANSLATE TWD THE WRN LAKES
REGION BY THU NIGHT...BUT THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND TAPER
OFF HERE BY EARLY FRI. ON FRI...ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM ENERGY
EJECTING OUT ACRS MT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION TO IMPACT ERN MT AND WRN ND. HPC QPF FOLLOWED A SOLN
GENERALLY TWD THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF SOLNS.

....TN VLY/SRN MID-ATL SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST/FL...

A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING OUT ACRS THE TN VLY/SRN MID-ATL REGION
WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT AND FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH
THE PD. MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR
THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST WITH STG DIABATIC
HEATING AND A VERY MOIST BNDRY LYR WITH PWATS AOA 2 INCHES.

TERRY/ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 14/00Z
0.01 498620 494609 489602 486601 484597 478597 472601 467604
462609 458614 458624 459632 461642 460645 456648 448660
442673 434686 430692 427699 426707 428708 431709 436709
439706 441706 443714 437720 431725 429728 429733 433736
439739 441743 439750 439754 437758 436762 434763 431759
429753 428749 425746 420745 416749 415757 418765 425779
429786 431791 434794 442799 447801 451798 454788 454782
454774 457765 466753 466746 465739 465721 464702 462694
462685 461672 462661 463662 465669 466675 469678 476688
478694 480705 481714 483717 485717 489715 492712 494704
495687 495681 497671 500645 498620
0.01 544078 545070 545062 545055 544048 541041 540038 540034
541023 540013 537006 533002 528006 526010 525015 520030
508036 501041 496047 491052 487055 480054 474050 465044
455036 452031 450024 449018 449015 451013 456010 459007
462001 462996 461988 458980 451966 444955 437947 433943
430935 428926 425916 422909 419903 409891 400882 395866
385835 383828 381820 381813 383808 387797 389792 390784
389768 389761 387758 382761 379767 377771 377779 378792
375799 372804 368808 363806 359799 350800 346796 343791
342787 344785 346780 348775 350774 351778 352785 356792
358791 361789 364784 366777 370767 371761 371757 368753
356725 352727 349731 343740 337751 332764 331769 330777
331784 329788 325790 316796 307801 296801 294801 294798
295796 296791 296783 294779 291776 286777 279780 267785
262788 260792 257797 252802 249806 248810 249814 255823
262830 268840 272847 274854 276862 277871 276886 276898
276905 277913 278923 284933 288936 293939 296940 300939
304936 309933 315931 324925 335919 341917 345916 347917
349921 351929 350935 346940 342945 340953 340959 341966
344973 348977 353980 360980 367979 374978 384978 390979
394982 395987 395993 391006 385018 382024 378028 373031
369033 360034 356034 352034 351028 351023 347021 337020
331028 312045 300047 285048 274047 265045 255044 245048
241050 240057 240066 241069 243071 258084 266086 272089
276091 284092 290093 297091 307089 331085 345081 359083
364084 369082 375083 379086 383091 387097 390102 392108
393113 395115 400118 403120 406121 411118 420112 423110
428112 435113 443114 449113 455114 460116 462118 464121
466127 463128 460128 457130 454131 451134 449137 448142
448147 449152 450156 451162 452167 442177 433184 425194
418204 411215 407218 404221 403225 405232 408233 417232
418238 421242 429246 438249 446250 451251 463251 476253
482256 489260 493261 496259 497252 496247 499241 504240
506237 506233 504223 503215 504211 507209 512208 518205
520199 522193 521188 519179 518177 518171 521158 517146
518141 521133 524123 526116 527106 528097 535092 539088
541084 544078
0.01 495777 491772 487771 481776 477781 475788 473795 470810
468825 468843 471853 474858 480861 483857 488843 493831
497823 498815 498806 498799 496780 495777
0.01 496122 497117 496113 496110 495108 493108 492108 490109
487110 485112 484114 483116 481119 480120 479124 478127
477129 478129 481129 484128 487127 490126 491126 493125
496123 496122
0.01 464204 463199 460198 454201 448202 442204 437197 433200
430208 431212 434213 441215 448212 455210 461207 464204
0.01 431092 431088 430084 430083 427080 424078 421078 418078
415078 412079 412080 411083 412087 412088 414091 415092
418093 421094 424095 427094 430093 431092
0.25 534063 534058 532055 530053 529052 526050 523049 520049
517049 514054 514058 514061 515063 517064 520065 523066
526067 529067 532067 534063
0.25 507086 508081 508077 503072 500071 494069 491070 488072
485074 479077 476078 473081 471085 472089 476091 482090
488090 491089 497090 500091 504091 507086
0.25 494221 493218 492216 491214 488212 485212 482213 479214
476214 473215 469217 467218 469221 472222 475221 478222
480224 483225 486226 489226 492225 492224 494221
0.25 495185 497181 497177 495173 493171 492171 489171 486173
485174 483175 480177 482182 483182 485184 488185 491186
494186 495185
0.25 480239 480235 479233 476231 473233 473236 473237 475241
478242 480239
0.25 463182 465178 462177 461178 459180 459181 459184 462184
463182
0.25 444982 443974 442969 439963 434960 430958 427953 425946
422945 415947 412943 408930 402919 397911 383895 377887
374884 371883 366892 365897 364904 363916 362927 356947
353952 353958 358964 364966 367965 371964 377960 384954
388951 394951 399952 403954 405960 405969 404981 403993
401006 400015 398019 391039 389044 388051 391056 395059
401059 407057 413053 418049 420044 423032 435016 437006
438999 440995 442993 444986 444982
0.25 361765 360761 358759 356763 356764 355768 356771 359772
360769 360767 361765
0.25 375849 373838 371828 366826 361830 359837 359846 359850
360855 363864 366871 369875 372874 375868 376860 376852
375849
0.25 318890 317879 315870 313865 311862 306856 302851 298847
294848 292851 291858 291864 292872 291889 291897 294906
297912 301917 304919 309918 313914 316906 317900 318890
0.25 276800 274799 270801 265804 260806 259808 263813 267815
273820 275825 278829 284831 288830 288826 284822 276814
273809 278807 280803 276800
0.25 293078 291075 291074 288072 287072 286071 283069 280068
277068 275067 272068 270069 270072 272075 275076 277078
278078 280079 283080 285081 286081 288081 290081 291081
293078
0.50 441979 439970 437966 433964 422968 417970 416972 414979
408996 406004 405011 402020 399027 397035 397041 398044
400046 404048 408047 411045 415038 418031 420022 423016
425013 429011 431004 434995 435992 438989 441983 441979
0.50 394922 392916 388913 382910 377908 373909 370912 368916
367925 366939 364948 359956 360959 366960 371957 374955
376951 378945 382936 389931 392926 394922
0.50 310882 308876 306873 302871 299872 298875 298879 297885
298892 299898 302904 304907 309908 311904 312898 311892
310885 310882
1.00 433980 432978 429979 428981 426984 426985 425989 427990
430989 432984 432983 433980
1.00 416006 417002 416998 413002 413003 412007 411009 410011
410015 409018 408021 408022 409025 411024 412022 414018
415014 416010 416007 416006

24HR QP VT 15/00Z
0.01 546173 540153 539143 539135 539127 538119 536112 536109
537105 540101 543096 546088 548081 548069 546062 542050
537041 533037 528034 519030 514024 512021 516020 521019
527016 530010 530004 529988 526978 521969 515960 508952
502943 498936 495930 489915 485903 486893 485885 484880
481875 477872 470869 460869 449873 440873 430876 426878
423882 418892 414899 408907 403911 398910 393907 389904
384894 381889 378888 371884 364879 357872 358837 359833
362829 363826 364821 361816 358813 356812 357807 360795
361788 364784 374768 376759 373750 370745 367742 365739
368734 368725 366719 362714 356712 349712 339717 332722
326730 322738 319747 317757 316768 318779 318786 317790
314794 312796 303800 296802 289801 280800 273801 263805
260808 259811 261819 266825 273829 280833 281836 279839
275845 274851 271859 268875 268884 269896 273918 276928
279935 285939 291940 297939 301937 309933 314934 317937
320942 324945 328947 332947 336952 342952 344953 347953
350951 356949 362948 364947 366944 369941 375940 379941
381943 385952 387966 387976 386989 386997 386005 387010
391020 394023 399025 408022 417014 420012 422009 426008
431006 437007 446009 454010 463017 469023 471027 473032
472034 469038 466040 461041 457042 454045 453049 454052
456056 464060 468064 468068 463082 462093 459098 449117
446121 444126 446138 445142 441145 440148 441152 443156
450160 452166 451169 451172 454176 457171 467172 470171
472173 474176 478181 483182 486186 488191 487200 483205
478204 473208 470211 464212 461215 460219 462224 464225
463229 458234 457242 457250 459254 461259 466265 472265
477269 480272 482277 488285 494290 498291 501291 511292
0.01 468640 465630 460623 450620 444625 441630 440639 438645
432651 429656 430660 432663 436663 440664 441667 444675
443681 445686 451688 453688 455679 460673 463667 464659
467652 468645 468640
0.01 524232 526227 527223 526220 525217 523215 522211 521210
518210 515214 514218 512223 512227 512231 512232 514238
517239 520237 522236 524232 524232
0.01 500036 499034 498032 496028 493030 492032 490033 487033
485034 483037 485038 487041 488042 491043 493045 494046
494045 497044 499041 499038 500036
0.01 474228 471224 468226 466226 468227 471230 474228
0.01 409106 410103 409099 409098 406096 406099 403102 400103
398103 396106 397108 400108 403109 405110 406110 407110
409108 409106
0.01 394068 391061 393053 392044 388039 384038 380039 376038
372039 367043 363048 364055 368057 372057 378060 381061
382065 381068 380072 382074 387072 392070 394068
0.01 341096 341092 341089 339085 338082 338078 335077 333077