The latest GFS puts Isabel really close to NYC next Saturday morning
(180-192 hrs). This is more or less the same as the last run.

How good are these models this far out?

- Steve Stein


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Stephen Stein wrote:

The latest GFS puts Isabel really close to NYC next Saturday morning
(180-192 hrs). This is more or less the same as the last run.

How good are these models this far out?

Not so great. Each model run has been pushing the storm further
east. If that trend keeps up, Isabel's a complete miss in North
America.


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Steve Okonski wrote:

Not so great. Each model run has been pushing the storm further
east. If that trend keeps up, Isabel's a complete miss in North
America.

Yeah - that was a good one. The Azores better watch out

I generally agree, though to some extent we are always going into the
proverbial unexplored territory because they models are constantly updated,
tropical cyclones attempted to be more realistically modeled, and more
useful data always being gathered for them.


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On 12 Sep 2003 20:41:26 -0400, Steve Okonski
wrote:

Stephen Stein wrote:

The latest GFS puts Isabel really close to NYC next Saturday morning
(180-192 hrs). This is more or less the same as the last run.

How good are these models this far out?

Not so great. Each model run has been pushing the storm further
east. If that trend keeps up, Isabel's a complete miss in North
America.

Not so great???????

---
Bob


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"RJ" wrote in message
news
On 12 Sep 2003 20:41:26 -0400, Steve Okonski
wrote:

Stephen Stein wrote:

The latest GFS puts Isabel really close to NYC next Saturday
morning
(180-192 hrs). This is more or less the same as the last run.

How good are these models this far out?

Not so great. Each model run has been pushing the storm further
east. If that trend keeps up, Isabel's a complete miss in North
America.

Not so great???????

---
Bob

I think what was being referred to is relative accuracy of
meteorological models (from more than 5 days or so out), not whether a
landfalling tropical system on the N. American continent is a good or
bad thing.

Climatologically speaking, southern New England is pretty boring
(unless perhaps if you are a professional meteorologist and know what
you are looking at). So I think folks can be forgiven if they get
excited at the prospects of tropical weather, at least in this area.
Particularly since hurricanes/tropical storms usually arrive in a
weakened state here. Isabel might not even be more than a tropical
storm or depression by the time it gets this far north, assuming it
even does get this far north. Certainly, of course, no one wants to
see anything destructive but ultimately it's out of our hands anyway.

I have heard or read in the past that an active tropical season is (or
may be) a harbinger of an active winter season, IE: more snow if it's
cold enough to support it. Any accuracy to this?

MAK


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In article XoM8b.333636$Oz4.123333@rwcrnsc54, MAK says...




I have heard or read in the past that an active tropical season is (or
may be) a harbinger of an active winter season, IE: more snow if it's
cold enough to support it. Any accuracy to this?

MAK


Does 'active tropical season' necessarily mean landfalls in the vicinity of the
later snows?

Banty


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