Charles

I am skeptical, if only because the structure you need for a signficant coastal
storm is not there. Evidence that the Arctic high is well offshore, as is the
low. The 500MB signature passes far too much to the east to bring a decent
precipitation event to northeastern U.S. communities.

The ECMWF Day 7 shows the low wrapped up into a potent storm (with neutral-tilt
closed configuration) in the Maritime Provinces, but the panels the two days
previous the appearance of the low and trough seems chaotic to me.

Not ruling it out, just thinking that system following over the Mississippi
Valley on February 20 may be the one with greater impact nationwide (probably
rain for the Interstate 95 corridor if trends continue).

Best Regards
Larry Cosgrove


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