http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2004-04-01-hurricane-usat_x.htm

Expert: Major hurricane likely to hit USA this year

By Patrick O'Driscoll, USA TODAY

The odds are high that a major hurricane will strike the mainland USA
this year, one of the nation's top forecasters of tropical storms says.

If so, it would be the first such storm in five years to hit America's
"hurricane coast," the stretch of shoreline from Texas to New England
where more than one-fourth of the nation's population lives. Major
hurricanes, with winds of at least 111 mph, can destroy buildings and
flood areas for miles inland, causing billions of dollars in damage.

William Gray, who heads the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado
State University, says the odds are overwhelming that the lull in major
hurricanes will end soon: "It is inevitable that we will see ...
destruction in coming years on a scale many times greater than what we
have seen."

In his first hurricane update of 2004, Gray estimates a 71% probability
that at least one "intense" or major hurricane will hit the coast. Gray,
who has forecast past seasons with remarkable accuracy, predicts the
Atlantic will spawn 14 "named" tropical storms this year, and that eight
of them will grow into hurricanes. Tropical storms deliver winds of at
least 39 mph. Hurricanes are 74 mph or more.

In a normal year, the Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean and Gulf
of Mexico, sees about 10 tropical storms and six hurricanes, of which
two or three are major.

But lately, few major storms have struck land. Since 1992, the Atlantic
has produced 32 major hurricanes. Only three reached the coast: Opal in
1995, Fran in 1996 and Bret in 1999. By contrast, 16 of the 63 major
Atlantic storms from 1944-61 struck U.S. shores.

Gray and his research team believe the USA is in the midst of a new
"active tropical" era of more intense storms, a period that could last
another two to three decades.


peace,

-*-
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Hurricane Gloria (1985) took a room off my house (took down a tree that went
down neatly between my house and the neighbor's garage)-- but the root ball
smashed through the back wall of my office, cracked every plaster wall in
the house, rippled all the floors, and knocked the chimney off its
foundation. Needless to say, I'm quite wary of hurricanes!

-Perry-


"Charles M. Kozierok" wrote in message
...
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2004-04-01-hurricane-usat_x.htm

Expert: Major hurricane likely to hit USA this year

By Patrick O'Driscoll, USA TODAY

The odds are high that a major hurricane will strike the mainland USA
this year, one of the nation's top forecasters of tropical storms says.

If so, it would be the first such storm in five years to hit America's
"hurricane coast," the stretch of shoreline from Texas to New England
where more than one-fourth of the nation's population lives. Major
hurricanes, with winds of at least 111 mph, can destroy buildings and
flood areas for miles inland, causing billions of dollars in damage.

William Gray, who heads the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado
State University, says the odds are overwhelming that the lull in major
hurricanes will end soon: "It is inevitable that we will see ...
destruction in coming years on a scale many times greater than what we
have seen."

In his first hurricane update of 2004, Gray estimates a 71% probability
that at least one "intense" or major hurricane will hit the coast. Gray,
who has forecast past seasons with remarkable accuracy, predicts the
Atlantic will spawn 14 "named" tropical storms this year, and that eight
of them will grow into hurricanes. Tropical storms deliver winds of at
least 39 mph. Hurricanes are 74 mph or more.

In a normal year, the Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean and Gulf
of Mexico, sees about 10 tropical storms and six hurricanes, of which
two or three are major.

But lately, few major storms have struck land. Since 1992, the Atlantic
has produced 32 major hurricanes. Only three reached the coast: Opal in
1995, Fran in 1996 and Bret in 1999. By contrast, 16 of the 63 major
Atlantic storms from 1944-61 struck U.S. shores.

Gray and his research team believe the USA is in the midst of a new
"active tropical" era of more intense storms, a period that could last
another two to three decades.


peace,

-*-
Charles M. Kozierok )
Co-moderator, ne.weather.moderated (news:ne.weather.moderated)
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In article ,
Perry wrote:
} Hurricane Gloria (1985) took a room off my house (took down a tree that went
} down neatly between my house and the neighbor's garage)-- but the root ball
} smashed through the back wall of my office, cracked every plaster wall in
} the house, rippled all the floors, and knocked the chimney off its
} foundation. Needless to say, I'm quite wary of hurricanes!

Yuck, that's horrible. Well, less chance of that being in Framingham,
though still possible.

The US has dodged a *lot* of bullets lately.. storms that veered away at
the last moment, storms that degraded right before landfall. People are
*much* too complacent about this luck, which *will* run out.

I remember after Floyd missed Florida in '99, I read stories talking NOT
about how people felt grateful that the storm recurved, but how they
were annoyed that they had been "evacuated for nothing".

This story is unusual because the typical line is that they predict N
storms of each type and then say "we can't predict whether or not a big
storm will hit the US." This gives me pause. I don't know about this
year but I *do* know it is only a matter of time....

peace,

-*-
Charles M. Kozierok )
Co-moderator, ne.weather.moderated (news:ne.weather.moderated)
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Yes, we're definitely overdue. Since Framingham is only 18 miles or so
inland, it's always something that's a possibility depending on paths. I'm
never complacent about warnings... at least not after Gloria!

MEMA (Massachusetts Emergency Management) is a few miles away from me on
Route 9 in the old nuclear bunker. I figure I can always knock at the door
with my two cats and beg the Governor for shelter.

-Perry-

"Charles M. Kozierok" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Perry wrote:
} Hurricane Gloria (1985) took a room off my house (took down a tree that
went
} down neatly between my house and the neighbor's garage)-- but the root
ball
} smashed through the back wall of my office, cracked every plaster wall
in
} the house, rippled all the floors, and knocked the chimney off its
} foundation. Needless to say, I'm quite wary of hurricanes!

Yuck, that's horrible. Well, less chance of that being in Framingham,
though still possible.

The US has dodged a *lot* of bullets lately.. storms that veered away at
the last moment, storms that degraded right before landfall. People are
*much* too complacent about this luck, which *will* run out.

I remember after Floyd missed Florida in '99, I read stories talking NOT
about how people felt grateful that the storm recurved, but how they
were annoyed that they had been "evacuated for nothing".

This story is unusual because the typical line is that they predict N
storms of each type and then say "we can't predict whether or not a big
storm will hit the US." This gives me pause. I don't know about this
year but I *do* know it is only a matter of time....

peace,

-*-
Charles M. Kozierok )
Co-moderator, ne.weather.moderated (news:ne.weather.moderated)
Join us for weather info and discussion in a civil, low-noise environment.
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(Charles M. Kozierok) expounded:

The odds are high that a major hurricane will strike the mainland USA
this year, one of the nation's top forecasters of tropical storms says.

Seems we see these high odds every year. Of course a major hurricane
could strike the mainland USA this year, there's lots to strike, and
hurricanes happen....every year. Some of these weather pundits do a
discredit to their fellow weather predictors by predicting the
obvious. IMHO.

--
Ann
Cold weather/snow fan
South of Boston, MA


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Friends

It seems like every year we have to deal with this business of "the increasing
likelihood of a major hurricane strike" on the U.S.

I am fairly certain that at some point in the future (perhaps even near
future), the nation will take a Camille, Hugo, or Andrew style hit somewhere on
the Gulf of Atlantic coasts. But "increasing likelihood" is nonsense.
Hurricanes have ALWAYS struck the mainland and ALWAYS will. It is a part of
nature. Just like the possibility of a major tornado swarm hitting a huge
metropolitan area like Chicago or Dallas (which, for some bizarre reason, the
media does not choose to discuss, including the local broadcast outlets in
those cities).

Until the climatic pattern changes, which probably will not be in our lifetime,
the potential for a damaging tropical cyclone striking a highly populated area
is just something we will have to live with. It comes with the territory.


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In article ,
Ann wrote:
} Seems we see these high odds every year. Of course a major hurricane
} could strike the mainland USA this year, there's lots to strike, and
} hurricanes happen....every year. Some of these weather pundits do a
} discredit to their fellow weather predictors by predicting the
} obvious. IMHO.

The thing is.. I don't recall seeing this every year. It strikes me as
fairly unusual.

peace,

-*-
Charles M. Kozierok )
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In article ,
WXAMERICA wrote:
} I am fairly certain that at some point in the future (perhaps even near
} future), the nation will take a Camille, Hugo, or Andrew style hit somewhere on
} the Gulf of Atlantic coasts. But "increasing likelihood" is nonsense.

Agreed. As I said on the other group, this is based on the "law of
averages" kind of thinking.. and it really isn't valid predicting
something like hurricanes, which are stochastic.

} Hurricanes have ALWAYS struck the mainland and ALWAYS will. It is a part of
} nature. Just like the possibility of a major tornado swarm hitting a huge
} metropolitan area like Chicago or Dallas (which, for some bizarre reason, the
} media does not choose to discuss, including the local broadcast outlets in
} those cities).

There's nothing bizarre about it Larry, if you think about it from the
right (cynical) perspective. And that's why it is going to be so
horrible when one does hit.

peace,

-*-
Charles M. Kozierok )
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(Charles M. Kozierok) expounded:

The thing is.. I don't recall seeing this every year. It strikes me as
fairly unusual.

Charles, perhaps the wording was different, but I've seen the same
thing, time and time again, either here or over on the other group.
Or it's about snow. Either way, it *could* happen, because it *does*
snow, and we do get hurricanes )

--
Ann
Cold weather/snow fan
South of Boston, MA


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On 4/4/04 10:01 AM, in article , "Charles M.
Kozierok" wrote:

In article ,
WXAMERICA wrote:
} I am fairly certain that at some point in the future (perhaps even near
} future), the nation will take a Camille, Hugo, or Andrew style hit somewhere
on
} the Gulf of Atlantic coasts. But "increasing likelihood" is nonsense.

Agreed. As I said on the other group, this is based on the "law of
averages" kind of thinking.. and it really isn't valid predicting
something like hurricanes, which are stochastic.

I would think that the relationship between climate and weather would make
the "law of averages" even less applicable in this context.

I mean, if you flipped a coin 10 times and got 10 heads, the law of averages
would say to expect tails on the next flip. But common sense would question
the fairness of the coin, and expect heads.

In this case, if a trend has established itself, in the absence of any
climatic shift I would expect the trend to continue.

In this sense, I would disagree with your comment in the other group that
this year's hurricanes know nothing about last year's. In a climatic sense,
they do, don't they?

- Steve Stein


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