It's looking more and more likely that a large ocean storm may threaten
NY's Long Island and Southern Connecticut and possibly the rest of New
England by the Thursday-Saturday time frame.

At 0000 UTC today, the gale center was located at 36N 73W or about 150
miles ESE of Norfolk, VA, moving SE@17mph with winds to 45 mph. The
storm is expected to gradually strengthen and could become a major
threat to portions of the north Atlantic coast after 96 hours or by
Thursday.

384
fxus61 kokx 310804
afdokx
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Upton New York
305 am EST Monday Jan 31 2005
.. quiet through midweek...Then things get interesting as large
retrograding ocean storm looms end of the week/weekend...
Short term (tonight through wednesday)...
Rather quiet here with surface hipres in control. May have some ocean
effect clouds today over eastern portions as northeasterly flow around
hi continues. For the rest of the region...sunshine is the word.
Temperatures look to be right around normal today...if not a degree or
two below in some areas. Tonight...clear with good radiating conds
means cold but calm. Mostly sunny skies continue for Tuesday with
slightly higher maxes...right about normal. Same story for Tuesday
night with hipres overhead...clear with good radiating conditions. More
of the same for Wednesday...but expect more of an increase in high
clouds...mainly late. Temperatures a few degrees above norm during the
day. &&
Long term (thursday through sunday)...
This is where things get interesting. Blocking pattern continues over
Atlantic...with even some retogression noted. European model (ecmwf)
has now joined rest of model suite with retrograding a large ocean
storm toward the northestern US coast end of the week. Canadian has
been very consistent...and most potent. Still...very complicated
forecast that is subject to large changes next couple of days.
Models are now trying to eject a piece of southern stream energy out of
the southwestern US Wednesday night...then deepen it as it heads east
toward the Middle Atlantic States. They may even be trying to phase
this energy with the northern stream Thursday over the East Coast. To
complicate matters further...this whole mess tries to merge with
retrograding ocean storm.
It looks more and more likely now that there will be some effect in our
neck of the Woods from all this. We may actually see a backdoor warm
front swing through here from the NE late in the week as big occld low
to our east wraps warm air around itself. Definitely not something run
of the mill. Expect to see first effects Wednesday on ocean waters as
swells from the east encroach.
Forecast is highly uncertain...but it's starting to look like we could
see an increase in winds and probability of precipitation by Thursday
or more likely later Thursday night. Will increase probability of
precipitation to chance Thursday night through Sat...with highest
values eastern 1/3 of County Warning Area. Will go rain or snow at this
point...as there's no way to tell what column will look like by then.
Could there be a period of heavy snow or heavy rain? The answer is
yes...but chances of lighter precipitation are better at this juncture.
We'll just have to wait and see. Probably will not have any details
sorted out with this one until Tue/Wed. &&
Hydrology...no problems for now as daytime temperatures near normal
support slow snowpack melting...but cold nights will keep things in
check. Will have to wait and see end of week if more substantial
precipitation can materialize. &&
Aviation...
winds expected to increase to 10-15 knots across coastal terminals with
some gusts to 20 knots possible this morning. Some scattered low
stratocu may develop this morning near the coast. After 18z vfr
conditions as high pressure builds over the area. &&
Marine...
Small Craft Advisory today as a northeasterly flow increases through
resulting in rough seas over the ocean waters. Seas over the ocean are
currently running close to 7 feet...especially the buoy at 44017. This
will continue until tonight when a high pressure takes control over the
area through the mid-week. A coastal low over the ocean waters may
retrograde back toward the New England coast during the latter half of
the week. Eventhough is to early to tell...will trend towards
increasing seas for Thursday and Friday with the mention of east swells
Wednesday through Thursday. &&
Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New Jersey...none.
New York...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory ocean waters...anz355-353-350. &&
$$
Public...ekster
AVN/marine...nf


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Alphonso wrote:
It's looking more and more likely that a large ocean storm may
threaten
NY's Long Island and Southern Connecticut and possibly the rest of
New
England by the Thursday-Saturday time frame.

At 0000 UTC today, the gale center was located at 36N 73W or about
150
miles ESE of Norfolk, VA, moving SE@17mph with winds to 45 mph. The
storm is expected to gradually strengthen and could become a major
threat to portions of the north Atlantic coast after 96 hours or by
Thursday.

384
fxus61 kokx 310804
afdokx
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Upton New York
305 am EST Monday Jan 31 2005
. quiet through midweek...Then things get interesting as large
retrograding ocean storm looms end of the week/weekend...
Short term (tonight through wednesday)...
Rather quiet here with surface hipres in control. May have some ocean
effect clouds today over eastern portions as northeasterly flow
around
hi continues. For the rest of the region...sunshine is the word.
Temperatures look to be right around normal today...if not a degree
or
two below in some areas. Tonight...clear with good radiating conds
means cold but calm. Mostly sunny skies continue for Tuesday with
slightly higher maxes...right about normal. Same story for Tuesday
night with hipres overhead...clear with good radiating conditions.
More
of the same for Wednesday...but expect more of an increase in high
clouds...mainly late. Temperatures a few degrees above norm during
the
day. &&
Long term (thursday through sunday)...
This is where things get interesting. Blocking pattern continues over
Atlantic...with even some retogression noted. European model (ecmwf)
has now joined rest of model suite with retrograding a large ocean
storm toward the northestern US coast end of the week. Canadian has
been very consistent...and most potent. Still...very complicated
forecast that is subject to large changes next couple of days.
Models are now trying to eject a piece of southern stream energy out
of
the southwestern US Wednesday night...then deepen it as it heads east
toward the Middle Atlantic States. They may even be trying to phase
this energy with the northern stream Thursday over the East Coast. To
complicate matters further...this whole mess tries to merge with
retrograding ocean storm.
It looks more and more likely now that there will be some effect in
our
neck of the Woods from all this. We may actually see a backdoor warm
front swing through here from the NE late in the week as big occld
low
to our east wraps warm air around itself. Definitely not something
run
of the mill. Expect to see first effects Wednesday on ocean waters as
swells from the east encroach.
Forecast is highly uncertain...but it's starting to look like we
could
see an increase in winds and probability of precipitation by Thursday
or more likely later Thursday night. Will increase probability of
precipitation to chance Thursday night through Sat...with highest
values eastern 1/3 of County Warning Area. Will go rain or snow at
this
point...as there's no way to tell what column will look like by then.
Could there be a period of heavy snow or heavy rain? The answer is
yes...but chances of lighter precipitation are better at this
juncture.
We'll just have to wait and see. Probably will not have any details
sorted out with this one until Tue/Wed. &&
Hydrology...no problems for now as daytime temperatures near normal
support slow snowpack melting...but cold nights will keep things in
check. Will have to wait and see end of week if more substantial
precipitation can materialize. &&
Aviation...
winds expected to increase to 10-15 knots across coastal terminals
with
some gusts to 20 knots possible this morning. Some scattered low
stratocu may develop this morning near the coast. After 18z vfr
conditions as high pressure builds over the area. &&
Marine...
Small Craft Advisory today as a northeasterly flow increases through
resulting in rough seas over the ocean waters. Seas over the ocean
are
currently running close to 7 feet...especially the buoy at 44017.
This
will continue until tonight when a high pressure takes control over
the
area through the mid-week. A coastal low over the ocean waters may
retrograde back toward the New England coast during the latter half
of
the week. Eventhough is to early to tell...will trend towards
increasing seas for Thursday and Friday with the mention of east
swells
Wednesday through Thursday. &&
Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New Jersey...none.
New York...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory ocean waters...anz355-353-350. &&
$$
Public...ekster
AVN/marine...nf


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NWS has backed off somewhat on this and a moderate nor'easter is now in
the cards for coastal New England Thur-Fri. Doesn't look too bad at
this point.


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