JULY 2003 30-DAY OUTLOOK
300 PM EDT Mon. June 30, 2003

Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical data,
ECMWF, and Canonical Correlation analysis, observed cases from past such
months, and soil moisture indications are expected to have a major role in the
forecast for the next 30-days.

During the past few months, the warm episode in the tropical Pacific has
rapidly decreased. Sea surface temperatures remain slightly above normal near
the Dateline with the warmest waters to the west. Some models indicate the
possible development of a cold episode while other show the redevelopment of a
warm episode. Current conditions and observed trends indicate a weak cold
episode to develop in the tropical Pacific during the next several months. The
impact on the upper level flow in the mid-latitude is expected to be minimal.

The NAO is currently in a negative phase and is forecast to remain negative
through the mid-month period. The upper pattern across North America is
expected to consist of a trough near the West coast, A ridge across much of the
southern U.S. with another trough near the East coast. Possible tropical
activity in the gulf may lead to above normal precipitation across the region
and spread northeast.

Above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West, from the Plains
westward. Soil moisture indicators gave this region a high probability of above
normal temperatures with the probability of above normal temperatures in this
region is 60 percent. Below normal temperatures are expected across the central
and eastern Gulf coast northeastward. This is due mainly to wet soil across
much of the region. The probability of below normal temperatures in this region
is 58 percent. The remainder of the nation is likely to average near normal
with no significant deviation from normal climatology.

Above normal precipitation is expected along the central and eastern gulf coast
and northward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and the mid-Atlantic region.
The probability of above normal precipitation is 57 percent. Above normal
precipitation is expected along the central gulf coast is expected with the
expectations of increased tropical activity. The remainder of the nation is
expected to average near normal with no significant deviation from normal
climatology.