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sci.geo.meteorology (Meteorology) (sci.geo.meteorology) For the discussion of meteorology and related topics. |
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#1
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In article ,
Mike1 wrote: Anyone have a source? Was it at flight-level, or a surface-extrapolated number from an even higher gust at flight-level? It was a wind from a GPS dropwindsonde, an actual measurement. I'll use this opportunity to again suggest that tropical system reports include maximum gust-encountered wind speeds along with MSW speeds, since it is the gusts which do the majority of the wind-caused structural damage. As force exerted by wind increases by the square of wind-speed, a 237mph gust would exert over twice the force upon a structure as 160mph winds. A strong building that might stand up all day creaking and groaning at 160 could be destroyed in seconds by 200+. The wind was well above the surface and would not have been felt at the surface. NHC forecast advisories already include gusts. Insufficiently-informative MSW-labeling schemes lead to goofy revisionist business like a burst-phasing hurricane Andrew being altered after the fact to a cat5 due to extreme gusts well in excess of the cat4 145MSW at landfall causing catastrophic damage. Andrew was revised upward to a category 5 based on maximum sustained winds. The category only depends upon sustained winds, not gusts. -- Guns were not for girls. They were for boys. They were invented by boys. They were invented by boys who had never gotten over their disappointment that accompanying their own orgasm wasn't a big BOOM sound. Lorrie Moore |
#3
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In article ,
Mike1 wrote: (Sim Aberson) wrote: NHC forecast advisories already include gusts. Given my sampling of public (esp. televised) update statements, I'd say that not enough effort is being made to promote gusts as an important piece of information. You should contact your local media to include this information. Insufficiently-informative MSW-labeling schemes lead to goofy revisionist business like a burst-phasing hurricane Andrew being altered after the fact to a cat5 due to extreme gusts well in excess of the cat4 145MSW at landfall causing catastrophic damage. Andrew was revised upward to a category 5 based on maximum sustained winds. Measured by what, when? If the info was of a timely nature, you'd figure the upgraded classification would have made the news while the storm was still winding toward Louisianna, yet I recall nothing of the sort. Since 1992, we have developed the GPS dropwindsonde that measures winds in the strongest part of the hurricane - the eyewall. We never previously had that capability. We also now have the SFMR, stepped frequency microwave radiometer, that also measures surface winds on research aircraft. With these two new instruments, we are able to estimate surface winds from flight level winds of past storms far better than we could before. Given the new knowledge, it became clear that Andrew was a category 5 hurricane instead of category 4 as previously found. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/clanalysis.html Other storms are also being reassessed. (Have MSW time-duration requirements softened, such than winds formerly classified as gusts are now labeled MSWs?) Nope. Sustained winds are (and have been) defined as one-minute mean winds at 10 m above the surface. -- Guns were not for girls. They were for boys. They were invented by boys. They were invented by boys who had never gotten over their disappointment that accompanying their own orgasm wasn't a big BOOM sound. Lorrie Moore |
#4
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In article ,
Scott Lindstrom wrote: Sim Aberson wrote: [snip stuff about reassessment] Other storms are also being reassessed. Have any storms been reassessed downwards in intensity? Yes. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2003/hurdat.html -- Guns were not for girls. They were for boys. They were invented by boys. They were invented by boys who had never gotten over their disappointment that accompanying their own orgasm wasn't a big BOOM sound. Lorrie Moore |
#5
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Sim Aberson wrote:
In article , Scott Lindstrom wrote: Sim Aberson wrote: [snip stuff about reassessment] Other storms are also being reassessed. Have any storms been reassessed downwards in intensity? Yes. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2003/hurdat.html I sent off my question before I completely formulated it. What I should have asked was: Have any storms been reassessed downwards in intensity based on actual reanalysis of data from the GPS dropwindsonde and/or the SFMR. Or, are relationships derived from observations taken by these instruments in storm A used to re-estimate winds in storm B. I mean, there weren't these new dropwindsonde data in '92 -- so is it "just" (I'm not overlooking the tremendous amount of work done) a matter of reanalysing the old data based on the new relationships found with the new instruments? Did I read through the links in the above link correctly? So it's not like new data has been found the old storms like Andrew, right? Scott, maybe confused |
#6
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In article ,
Scott Lindstrom wrote: Have any storms been reassessed downwards in intensity based on actual reanalysis of data from the GPS dropwindsonde and/or the SFMR. Yes. The operational intensities are reassessed after the season to make the best track, what is in the hurdat data base. NHC gets the dropwindsonde and SFMR data in real time now, but post-processing of the data can reveal new information that causes the intensity to be raised or lowered. It is probably just as often that intensities get raised as lowered in the post-processing. Or, are relationships derived from observations taken by these instruments in storm A used to re-estimate winds in storm B. I mean, there weren't these new dropwindsonde data in '92 -- so is it "just" (I'm not overlooking the tremendous amount of work done) a matter of reanalysing the old data based on the new relationships found with the new instruments? Did I read through the links in the above link correctly? So it's not like new data has been found the old storms like Andrew, right? Right, no new data, just a reanalysis of the old data. -- Guns were not for girls. They were for boys. They were invented by boys. They were invented by boys who had never gotten over their disappointment that accompanying their own orgasm wasn't a big BOOM sound. Lorrie Moore |
#7
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(Sim Aberson) wrote:
Given my sampling of public (esp. televised) update statements, I'd say that not enough effort is being made to promote gusts as an important piece of information. You should contact your local media to include this information. guffaw When Isabel makes it past Lock & Dam #7 on the Mississippi, I'll be sure to get on the line to the idiots at Channel 4 in Minneapolis. In the meantime, the government agencies involved should be doing that on a national basis, because I'm not seeing peak-gusts reported in the regular updates from the big-4 and TWC. -- Reply to sans two @@, or your reply won't reach me. "An election is nothing more than an advance auction of stolen goods." -- Ambrose Bierce |
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