JUNE-AUGUST 2004
90-Day Forecast
500 PM EDT Wed. June 2, 2004

Atmospheric patterns, 700 mb and 500 mb height anomalies, statistical data,
ECMWF, and Canonical Correlation analysis, observed cases from past falls, sea
surface temperatures were analyzed but is not expected to affect on the global
circulation.

Sea surface temperature anomalies are currently about .5(C, which is with in
normal range in the western and central equatorial Pacific. Statistical and
computer models are indicating neutral conditions during the next few months.

The NAO is currently in a negative phase and is forecast to remain generally in
a negative phase for the next few weeks. The upper pattern is expected to
consist of a ridge in the Rockies and in the western Atlantic and the
Southeast. A trough is forecast to be in the center of the nation.

Above normal temperatures are forecast across the Rockies to the West coast.
The probability of above normal temperatures in this region is 58 percent. The
probability of above normal temperatures increase to 60 percent across the
central and southern Rockies. Above normal temperatures are also expected
across the central gulf coast northeastward. The probability of below normal
temperatures in this region is 57 percent. The probability of above normal
temperatures increase to 60 percent across the Southeast. The remainder of the
nation is expected to be near normal with no significant deviation from
climatology.

Below normal precipitation is expected across the southern Plains and the
southern Rockies. The probability of below normal precipitation in this region
is 58 percent. Below normal precipitation is also expected across the Southeast
and the lower mid-Atlantic. The probability of above normal precipitation in
this region is 57 percent. The remainder of the nation is expected to be near
normal with no significant deviation from climatology.

Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx