JULY 30-DAY OUTLOOK
530 PM EDT Wed. June 30, 2004


Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical data,
ECMWF, and Canonical
Correlation analysis, observed cases from past such months and new data from
1895-2000 were used in this forecast.

Sea surface temperatures are currently averaging near normal across much of the
western and central Equatorial Pacific. Statistical and computer models are
indicating neutral conditions during the next few month .

The NAO is currently in a positive phase and is forecast to be in a generally
negative phase for the next couple of weeks before returning to a positive
phase. The 500 MB pattern is expected to consist of a trough along the West
coast, a ridge across the Rockies and into the Plains. A trough is forecast to
be across eastern North America.

Above normal temperatures are expected across the West. The probability of
above normal temperatures in this region is 58 percent. Below normal
temperatures are expected in the Mississippi and Ohio Valley. The probability
of below normal temperatures in this area is 57 percent. The remainder of the
nation is likely to average near normal with no significant deviation from
normal climatology.

Above normal precipitation is expected across eastern and central Washington
and Oregon. The probability of above normal precipitation in this region is 57
percent. Below normal precipitation is expected across a large portion of the
West, the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The probability of below normal
precipitation in this region is 57 percent. The remainder of the nation is
expected to average near normal with no significant deviation from normal
climatology.

Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx