NO MOONIES, no science frauds: "... The study was conducted by 19
scientists from several universities and research institutions,
including Stanford University, the University of California and the
Scripps Institution of Oceanography. It was financed by a variety of
foundations as well as the Department of Energy and the California
Energy Commission. ..."



http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/17/national/17heat.html

Study Finds Climate Shift Threatens California
By DEAN E. MURPHY

Published: August 17, 2004

SAN FRANCISCO, Aug. 16 - A scientific study released on Monday
presents an alarming view of climate changes in California, finding
that by the end of the century rising temperatures could lead to a
sevenfold increase in heat-related deaths in Los Angeles and imperil
the state's wine and dairy industries.

The study, published in the online version of the Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences, offers the most detailed projection yet
of changes in California as temperatures rise around the world because
of building concentrations of heat-trapping gases.

Under one of two scenarios, in which fossil fuel use continues at its
present pace, the study determined that summertime high temperatures
could increase by 15 degrees in some inland cities, putting their
climate on par with that of Death Valley now. That scenario also
foresaw a reduction of 73 percent to 90 percent in the snow pack in
the Sierra Nevada, resulting in disrupted water supplies from the San
Francisco Bay Area to the Central Valley.

Even in the second scenario, which assumed significant increases in
the use of renewable energy like wind and solar power, the study
concluded that fossil fuel emissions could push average high
temperatures up by four to six degrees - the difference, one author
said, between the temperature in Yosemite National Park and downtown
Sacramento.

The study warned that the higher temperatures could have devastating
consequences for wine grapes, which could ripen more quickly and be of
poorer quality, and for cows, which could produce less milk. In cities
like Los Angeles, it found, the number of days of extreme heat could
increase by four to eight times. It projected that heat-related deaths
in Los Angeles, which it said averaged 165 annually during the 1990's,
could double or triple under the moderate scenario and grow as much as
seven times under the harsher one.

The scientists said that California was chosen for the study because
of its range of climates and the predominance of industries, like
agriculture, that are dependent on climatic conditions. The state's
economic heft - by some measures it is the fifth largest economy in
the world - and its history of environmental activism were also
considerations.

"California alone can't address the emissions problem, but California
is in a position of leadership," one of the study's authors, Peter C.
Frumhoff of the Union of Concerned Scientists, said in a
teleconference.

The study was conducted by 19 scientists from several universities and
research institutions, including Stanford University, the University
of California and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. It was
financed by a variety of foundations as well as the Department of
Energy and the California Energy Commission.

Several of the scientists warned against dismissing the findings as
overstated. "We have been studying this for 30 years, and the
conclusions are getting increasingly clear, and increasingly
consistent," said Dr. Stephen H. Schneider, a climate scientist at
Stanford. He added, "We think this problem has too high a chance of
happening and in negative incarnations for us to ignore it."