http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article....icle_id=76 16

Will hydrogen soon kill Middle East crude?

By Patrick Seale
Special to The Daily Star
Monday, August 23, 2004

World oil prices continue to soar - driven by the continuing power
struggle in Iraq, by fears for the solvency of the Russian oil giant
Yukos, and by surging demand for oil in Asia, notably in China. Even
President Hugo Chavez's convincing victory in Venezuela on Aug. 15 -
and his pledge to continue supplying the United States with 1.5
million barrels a day in spite of his political differences with
Washington - has not checked the upward trend.

Some observers predict that oil prices could soon break through the
$50 a barrel ceiling. But, they add, there is no need to panic. In
real terms, oil prices are still only about half the level reached in
1979. High oil prices, however, have some immediate consequences. They
check the rate of growth of industrial economies, and might even
trigger a recession; they stimulate the search for alternative sources
of energy; and they pump money into Arab pockets.

The Economist magazine has estimated that "With oil prices at their
highest level in two decades, revenues of $600 million a day are
gushing into the Gulf, double the volume during the 1990s. The
monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council are alone likely to earn
$35 billion more from oil exports this year than last ..." - and that
excludes big producers such as Algeria, Libya and Iraq.

Arabs should beware. The bonanza will not last forever. Instead of
frittering away their oil wealth on conspicuous consumption, on real
estate extravaganzas and uncertain overseas investments, the Arabs
should devote every surplus dollar to preparing their societies for a
post-oil economy. As most Arabs are today under 30 years of age, a
radical change could occur in their lifetime, and it could be painful.
Urgent measures need to be taken to prepare for the day when the world
economy will no longer be dependent on Arab oil.

Instead of deregulating their economies, eliminating corruption,
privatizing their inefficient state-owned industries and stimulating
growth in non-oil sectors, high Arab oil revenues have created a sense
of complacency and retarded the introduction of much-needed reforms.
Most Arab economies have stagnated over the past two decades with the
result that 80 million Arabs out of a total of 290 million still live
below the poverty line.

It is almost certain that within three, four or, at the latest, five
decades from now, the petrol pump will have been left behind and
replaced by some other form of energy-provider. At present,
internal-combustion gasoline engines drive the world's 500 million
cars. By 2030, the number of cars is forecast to increase to more than
2 billion, largely due to growth in Asia. What new technology will
drive them? Might many of them be all-electric vehicles? Or might they
be powered by hydrogen fuel cells - hydrogen being, after all, the
most abundant element in the universe?

Whatever the answer, tomorrow's cars are most unlikely to be the
gas-guzzlers we see on the roads today, pumping carbon dioxide into
the atmosphere and contributing fatally to global warming and climate
change.

Writing this month in the Financial Times, Wolfgang Reitzle, chief
executive of a leading international energy company, announced, "the
US, Japan, China and the European Union have focused on hydrogen
technology as the most likely mainstay of continued economic
development." Industry, he said, is putting its long-term money on the
hydrogen fuel cell. Fuel-cell-powered aircraft, trains, boats and
trucks are in development. The Chinese are ahead of the pack: Fuel
cell bus services are due to begin in Beijing next year.

A recent 500-page report by America's National Academy of Science
concluded that "hydrogen has the potential for replacing essentially
all gasoline and eliminating almost all CO2 from vehicular emissions
over the next 50 years."

Energy is one of the major planks in John Kerry's campaign to unseat
George W Bush in the US presidential election. The Democratic
challenger blames the Bush administration's Middle East policies -
notably the war in Iraq - for adding $8-15 a barrel to the price of
oil. He wants the US to reduce its dependence on Arab oil and to adopt
a policy of "energy independence." Kerry has pledged that, if he
becomes president, he will spend $30 billion to encourage Americans to
buy cleaner cars and to subsidize carmakers to convert to cleaner
technologies. Above all, he wants to promote a shift to fuel cell
technology and has urged US industry to develop renewable sources of
energy, such as wind and solar power.

"Energy independence" sounds good but will not be easy to achieve: The
United States consumes a quarter of the world's oil but sits on only 3
percent of its proven reserves. In spite of the difficulties, however,
no one should underestimate the innovative powers of American
industry, nor its ability to divert enormous resources to developing a
new technology if it looks like being a winner.

Whatever the politicians may say, America's overthrow of Saddam
Hussein - and its ambition to install a pro-American regime in Baghdad
- were driven in large part by the looming world oil shortage. World
oil supplies are expected to peak between 2010 and 2020, and would
then be unable to meet the exploding world demand for oil. The major
powers, with the US in the lead, are engaged in a scramble for
remaining oil stocks - to fill the supply gap before an alternative
energy source becomes widely available, probably in the second half of
this century. According to Reitzle, hydrogen is the most viable
replacement. "Every dollar spent on hydrogen," he says, "will save us
many more when the final rush for oil begins."

But hydrogen - which as a constituent of water is all around us - is
not easy to harness. In theory, switching from fossil fuels to
hydrogen is extremely tempting: It would end dependence on oil, reduce
air pollution in cities and check the build-up of greenhouse gases
that are already being held responsible for severe climate change.
But, despite billions of dollars now being spent on research, no one
has yet found a simple, safe and cheap way to produce hydrogen.

Hydrogen atoms are bound to other elements in molecules, such as
water. To work in fuel cells, hydrogen atoms must be split off from
these molecules. At present, this is a costly process. Storing
hydrogen on board a car is also a problem, which has not yet been
solved satisfactorily. The hydrogen would need to be compressed or
liquefied, but this in turn would require it to be chilled to just a
few degrees above zero, a process consuming large amounts of energy.
Since hydrogen gas is highly flammable, safety is another concern for
which no adequate solution has yet been found.

For the cars of the future to be powered by hydrogen fuel cells would
require the creation of a massive new hydrogen infrastructure.
Mass-market hydrogen cars would need the new fuel to be available at
filling stations. Where is to be produced? In centralized plants and
then trucked or piped to filling stations? Or could it be produced on
site? Experts say that huge problems will need to be resolved in
producing and storing hydrogen, in converting it to electricity, in
supplying it to consumers and in overcoming safety concerns.

Nevertheless, car and energy companies are pumping billions of dollars
into building prototypes of vehicles and filling stations, while
governments are pursuing hydrogen as a potential replacement for car
fuel. Change is coming and the higher the oil price the faster it will
come.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article....icle_id=76 16

Will hydrogen soon kill Middle East crude?

By Patrick Seale
Special to The Daily Star
Monday, August 23, 2004

World oil prices continue to soar - driven by the continuing power
struggle in Iraq, by fears for the solvency of the Russian oil giant
Yukos, and by surging demand for oil in Asia, notably in China. Even
President Hugo Chavez's convincing victory in Venezuela on Aug. 15 -
and his pledge to continue supplying the United States with 1.5
million barrels a day in spite of his political differences with
Washington - has not checked the upward trend.

Some observers predict that oil prices could soon break through the
$50 a barrel ceiling. But, they add, there is no need to panic. In
real terms, oil prices are still only about half the level reached in
1979. High oil prices, however, have some immediate consequences. They
check the rate of growth of industrial economies, and might even
trigger a recession; they stimulate the search for alternative sources
of energy; and they pump money into Arab pockets.

The Economist magazine has estimated that "With oil prices at their
highest level in two decades, revenues of $600 million a day are
gushing into the Gulf, double the volume during the 1990s. The
monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council are alone likely to earn
$35 billion more from oil exports this year than last ..." - and that
excludes big producers such as Algeria, Libya and Iraq.

Arabs should beware. The bonanza will not last forever. Instead of
frittering away their oil wealth on conspicuous consumption, on real
estate extravaganzas and uncertain overseas investments, the Arabs
should devote every surplus dollar to preparing their societies for a
post-oil economy. As most Arabs are today under 30 years of age, a
radical change could occur in their lifetime, and it could be painful.
Urgent measures need to be taken to prepare for the day when the world
economy will no longer be dependent on Arab oil.

Instead of deregulating their economies, eliminating corruption,
privatizing their inefficient state-owned industries and stimulating
growth in non-oil sectors, high Arab oil revenues have created a sense
of complacency and retarded the introduction of much-needed reforms.
Most Arab economies have stagnated over the past two decades with the
result that 80 million Arabs out of a total of 290 million still live
below the poverty line.

It is almost certain that within three, four or, at the latest, five
decades from now, the petrol pump will have been left behind and
replaced by some other form of energy-provider. At present,
internal-combustion gasoline engines drive the world's 500 million
cars. By 2030, the number of cars is forecast to increase to more than
2 billion, largely due to growth in Asia. What new technology will
drive them? Might many of them be all-electric vehicles? Or might they
be powered by hydrogen fuel cells - hydrogen being, after all, the
most abundant element in the universe?

Whatever the answer, tomorrow's cars are most unlikely to be the
gas-guzzlers we see on the roads today, pumping carbon dioxide into
the atmosphere and contributing fatally to global warming and climate
change.

Writing this month in the Financial Times, Wolfgang Reitzle, chief
executive of a leading international energy company, announced, "the
US, Japan, China and the European Union have focused on hydrogen
technology as the most likely mainstay of continued economic
development." Industry, he said, is putting its long-term money on the
hydrogen fuel cell. Fuel-cell-powered aircraft, trains, boats and
trucks are in development. The Chinese are ahead of the pack: Fuel
cell bus services are due to begin in Beijing next year.

A recent 500-page report by America's National Academy of Science
concluded that "hydrogen has the potential for replacing essentially
all gasoline and eliminating almost all CO2 from vehicular emissions
over the next 50 years."

Energy is one of the major planks in John Kerry's campaign to unseat
George W Bush in the US presidential election. The Democratic
challenger blames the Bush administration's Middle East policies -
notably the war in Iraq - for adding $8-15 a barrel to the price of
oil. He wants the US to reduce its dependence on Arab oil and to adopt
a policy of "energy independence." Kerry has pledged that, if he
becomes president, he will spend $30 billion to encourage Americans to
buy cleaner cars and to subsidize carmakers to convert to cleaner
technologies. Above all, he wants to promote a shift to fuel cell
technology and has urged US industry to develop renewable sources of
energy, such as wind and solar power.

"Energy independence" sounds good but will not be easy to achieve: The
United States consumes a quarter of the world's oil but sits on only 3
percent of its proven reserves. In spite of the difficulties, however,
no one should underestimate the innovative powers of American
industry, nor its ability to divert enormous resources to developing a
new technology if it looks like being a winner.

Whatever the politicians may say, America's overthrow of Saddam
Hussein - and its ambition to install a pro-American regime in Baghdad
- were driven in large part by the looming world oil shortage. World
oil supplies are expected to peak between 2010 and 2020, and would
then be unable to meet the exploding world demand for oil. The major
powers, with the US in the lead, are engaged in a scramble for
remaining oil stocks - to fill the supply gap before an alternative
energy source becomes widely available, probably in the second half of
this century. According to Reitzle, hydrogen is the most viable
replacement. "Every dollar spent on hydrogen," he says, "will save us
many more when the final rush for oil begins."

But hydrogen - which as a constituent of water is all around us - is
not easy to harness. In theory, switching from fossil fuels to
hydrogen is extremely tempting: It would end dependence on oil, reduce
air pollution in cities and check the build-up of greenhouse gases
that are already being held responsible for severe climate change.
But, despite billions of dollars now being spent on research, no one
has yet found a simple, safe and cheap way to produce hydrogen.

Hydrogen atoms are bound to other elements in molecules, such as
water. To work in fuel cells, hydrogen atoms must be split off from
these molecules. At present, this is a costly process. Storing
hydrogen on board a car is also a problem, which has not yet been
solved satisfactorily. The hydrogen would need to be compressed or
liquefied, but this in turn would require it to be chilled to just a
few degrees above zero, a process consuming large amounts of energy.
Since hydrogen gas is highly flammable, safety is another concern for
which no adequate solution has yet been found.

For the cars of the future to be powered by hydrogen fuel cells would
require the creation of a massive new hydrogen infrastructure.
Mass-market hydrogen cars would need the new fuel to be available at
filling stations. Where is to be produced? In centralized plants and
then trucked or piped to filling stations? Or could it be produced on
site? Experts say that huge problems will need to be resolved in
producing and storing hydrogen, in converting it to electricity, in
supplying it to consumers and in overcoming safety concerns.

Nevertheless, car and energy companies are pumping billions of dollars
into building prototypes of vehicles and filling stations, while
governments are pursuing hydrogen as a potential replacement for car
fuel. Change is coming and the higher the oil price the faster it will
come.


Seale is right to mention hydrogen storage
on board cars as a problem.
BMW has shown one potential solution --
liquefy 9.5 kg of hydrogen,
contain it in a 145-kg steel vacuum flask --
but this makes the fuel system's mass,
two kilograms per (kilowatt-hour at the driveshaft),
rather high in light of hydrogen's in-principle
status as the lightest chemical fuel,
only 0.03 kilograms per raw chemical kilowatt-hour.

Interestingly, that 2 kg/(driveshaft kWh) is high
even compared to what aluminum oxide,
plus a bin to hold it, would weigh
in a car that had just propelled itself
several hundred km by burning aluminum:
1.1 kg/(driveshaft kWh).

Getting aluminum to burn poses some problems,
but clearly the option of taking on these problems
instead of the very persistent ones that hydrogen
safety and logistics pose, and in the bargain
getting a weight savings, may become compelling;
and aluminum is already produced by electrolysis
of its oxide using renewable energy.

So when serious attempts to make the
promise of hydrogen come true are made,
they may involve a substitution.
Rolls of shiny "hydrogen" may be sitting
on grocery store shelves even as we speak.


--- Graham Cowan
http://www.eagle.ca/~gcowan/Paper_for_11th_CHC.doc --
How individual mobility gains nuclear cachet