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Why Europe is pushing for Kerry
BY SHADA ISLAM

22 August 2004


FORGET the handshakes and wide smiles at recent high-profile summits
attended by US President George W. Bush and European leaders.
Transatlantic relations remain mired in acrimony. Despite EU
declarations of support for America, predictions that Europeans would
overcome their misgivings over the Iraq war and join hands with the US
to rebuild the country have been proven wrong.

Increasingly, in fact, with the US presidential election only three
months away, European policymakers are in no mood to come to the aid
of a president whose policies they dislike. But with fingers crossed,
and impressed by Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry's talk
of building partnerships with America's allies, Europeans are watching
and waiting for a change of guard in Washington.

Though most Europeans expect the Kerry-Edwards ticket to continue with
Bush's policies on Iraq, Israel, and Afghanistan, they believe that
the policies will be articulated in a different, more palatable tone.

Iraq remains the biggest bone of contention in transatlantic
relations. French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor
Gerhard Schroeder, both of whom opposed the Iraq invasion, are proving
just as sceptical of the Bush administration's calls for more EU
reconstruction assistance and Nato involvement. The French and German
leaders vetoed the deployment of Nato combat troops in Iraq, agreeing
only at the Alliance summit in Istanbul last month that the
organisation could train Iraqi soldiers and security forces but only
outside the country.

The rest of the 25-nation EU is also cautious about being drawn into
helping post-war Iraq. In the first high-level contacts between
European governments and the interim Iraqi authorities, Iraqi Foreign
Minister Hoshyar Zebari secured a number of promises of support and
help in rebuilding the country's legal system from EU foreign
ministers in Brussels. But the pledges remained vague.

Chirac and Schroeder are certainly the most unwilling to give Bush a
helping hand, but they are not alone. "Most people want to help Iraq
but not in a way that rewards Bush," says a senior EU diplomat. EU
policymakers also make no secret of their distaste for a raft of other
policies being pursued by the Bush administration such as Washington's
rejection of the Kyoto Protocol on global warming, its calls for
abstinence in the fight against Aids, and opposition to the
International Criminal Court.

"Most Europeans are not anti-American, but they are anti-Bush," says
Fraser Cameron of the Brussels-based European Policy Centre. As such a
Kerry victory and an end to the influence of neo-conservative
policy-setting in Washington "will have chancelleries across Europe,
including in London, heaving a collective sigh of relief," he says.

EU policymakers, who view almost all current American initiatives with
suspicion, will be ready to give 'more credit' to the future actions
of a Democratic presidency even if the policies are not too different
from current ones, says a senior EU diplomat. For one, Kerry's
language of alliances and partners is music to EU ears after four
years of being bullied and treated like 'kitchen boys' by the Bush
administration. "The collective build-up of transatlantic insults and
bad faith under the Bush administration can only be swept away if
there is a change in government in Washington," says the diplomat,
adding, "The slate has to be wiped clean."

Second, he says, the transatlantic divide would be much less acute if
Europeans felt there was genuine US concern about questions such as
global warming.

This change in rhetoric could certainly be the case with Turkey.
Diplomats in Brussels warn that, given the current transatlantic mood,
active US lobbying in favour of Turkish membership in the EU could
actually end up triggering the opposite result unless Kerry makes the
case in a subtler manner.

Kerry's election may be greeted with cheer in Europe, but it will
place more burdens and responsibilities on the EU, argues William
Drozdiak of the Brussels-based Transatlantic Centre of the German
Marshall Fund. "Europeans can refuse to send troops to Iraq at the
moment, arguing that they do not want Bush to be re-elected. But if
Kerry makes a similar request, Europeans will be put on the spot,"
cautions Drozdiak.

The good news for many Europeans is that the Democratic presidential
contenders are making an effort to get to know the EU.
Vice-Presidential candidate John Edwards has made two trips to meet
top EU and Nato policymakers in the last two years, showing what
Drozdiak calls an impressive readiness to listen to European view on a
range of issues.

Whether it's Bush or Kerry in the White House next year, the new US
administration will be dealing with a more confident and assertive
Union. The newly-expanded 25 nation bloc is set to sign its new
constitution in late October and will start immediate preparations for
establishing its first-ever diplomatic service, including top
policymakers from the European Commission and national governments.
The new department will be headed by the first EU foreign minister a
post expected to be filled by Javier Solana, the current EU foreign
and security policy chief. As it spreads its wings, the EU will be
ready to take on more global responsibilities, especially in the
Balkans and the Middle East. While the Bush administration has seen
Europe's coming of age as a threat to America's international
standing, the hope in Brussels is that a new Democratic administration
in Washington will view the EU as a real partner, able to help the US
in its fight against terrorism but also tackle violence and bloodshed
in Iraq and Afghanistan. Increasingly self-confident Europeans and
Americans may never see completely eye to eye on issues like the best
way of combating global challenges, the role of the United Nations,
and the US readiness to use military power. But with Kerry in charge,
there will almost certainly be more cooperation and less trading of
insults across the Atlantic.

"Rodney Blackall" wrote in message


1. What has this got to do with meteorology?

Go for him Rodders, old stick.

2. Do you think the opinions of European leaders will influence U.S.
citizens voting?

Who cares?




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