Roger Coppock wrote:


AaaaHaa maybe. The ACE index is both new, only 5 decades old,
and it has a huge variance. This record shows three periods:
a high from 1955 to 1970, a low from 1971 to 1994, and another
high from 1995 to 2002.

I agree that there seems a low signal-to-noise ratio in the data. But I
did read recently that Japan has already equalled its worst year for
typhoon strikes, and the main typhoon season is still ongoing. Records
only go back 50 years or so, the previous two worst years (which have
just been equalled) were also in the 90s.

I don't think it counts as evidence for anything, but it may well be
worth watching.

--
If I have seen further than others, it is
by treading on the toes of giants.
http://www.ne.jp/asahi/julesandjames/home/

James Annan wrote:

Roger Coppock wrote:


AaaaHaa maybe. The ACE index is both new, only 5 decades old,
and it has a huge variance. This record shows three periods:
a high from 1955 to 1970, a low from 1971 to 1994, and another
high from 1995 to 2002.


I agree that there seems a low signal-to-noise ratio in the data. But
I did read recently that Japan has already equalled its worst year for
typhoon strikes, and the main typhoon season is still ongoing. Records
only go back 50 years or so, the previous two worst years (which have
just been equalled) were also in the 90s.

I don't think it counts as evidence for anything, but it may well be
worth watching.


Agreed. FWIW are there good sets of sea surface temperatures in the
regions where the storms form that go back further. Certainly there was
enough shipping in the tropical Atlantic going back a few hundred years,
and the surface temperature should be a primary driver. How about proxy
measurements????

josh halpern

Josh Halpern wrote:



James Annan wrote:


I agree that there seems a low signal-to-noise ratio in the data. But
I did read recently that Japan has already equalled its worst year for
typhoon strikes, and the main typhoon season is still ongoing. Records
only go back 50 years or so, the previous two worst years (which have
just been equalled) were also in the 90s.

I don't think it counts as evidence for anything, but it may well be
worth watching.



Agreed. FWIW are there good sets of sea surface temperatures in the
regions where the storms form that go back further. Certainly there was
enough shipping in the tropical Atlantic going back a few hundred years,
and the surface temperature should be a primary driver. How about proxy
measurements????

The particular data I was quoting was for actual landfall on the main
Japanese islands, not just storms at sea. And AIUI the models don't seem
to give very clear answers (not that I have followed the subject much).
But there are certainly plenty of people looking into it.

James
--
If I have seen further than others, it is
by treading on the toes of giants.
http://www.ne.jp/asahi/julesandjames/home/