A current Ivan loop of around 24 hours or so shows the eye heading
straight for the middle of Jamaica, suddenly turning west right before
impact, then turning NW again immediately after dodging the island.

Is there a scientific explanation for a hurricane dodging a land mass
like this? It's scary how intentional it looks when you watch the
loop.

James Kilton wrote:

A current Ivan loop of around 24 hours or so shows the eye heading
straight for the middle of Jamaica, suddenly turning west right before
impact, then turning NW again immediately after dodging the island.

Is there a scientific explanation for a hurricane dodging a land mass
like this? It's scary how intentional it looks when you watch the
loop.

I don't know, but I'm willing to speculate. :-) My hypothesis is
that hurricanes will sometimes be drawn toward nearby locations with
a better environment for them. I don't keep up with the hurricane
research literature, so maybe this has been studied and I have not
heard about it. In the case of Jamaica and Ivan, it is better for
the hurricane to stay over warm water than go over a mountain range.
In the case of Charley, there was a small patch of warmer water
along the coast where it may landfall in Florida that it turned
toward (and which may have influenced its intensification just
before landfall, IMO). Now clearly if things like these influence
the tracks it is a secondary mechanism, because otherwise hurricanes
would seldom or never make landfall because the environment of the
ocean is much more conducive to them. FWIW.

Cheers,
Russell
--
All too often the study of data requires care.

(James Kilton) wrote in message . com...
A current Ivan loop of around 24 hours or so shows the eye heading
straight for the middle of Jamaica, suddenly turning west right before
impact, then turning NW again immediately after dodging the island.

Is there a scientific explanation for a hurricane dodging a land mass
like this? It's scary how intentional it looks when you watch the
loop.


Dunno. Jamaica is somewhat mountainous, perhaps this disrupted
the flow/steering currents around the storm?

Then again, maybe hurricanes are alive. They supposedly
have quite a bit a lightening a freaky electrical activity
close the eye. Maybe Ivan sensed the island and avoided
so it could continue to feed off those warm waters?

-Eric

In article ,
"R. Martin" wrote:

James Kilton wrote:

A current Ivan loop of around 24 hours or so shows the eye heading
straight for the middle of Jamaica, suddenly turning west right before
impact, then turning NW again immediately after dodging the island.

Is there a scientific explanation for a hurricane dodging a land mass
like this? It's scary how intentional it looks when you watch the
loop.

I don't know, but I'm willing to speculate. :-) My hypothesis is
that hurricanes will sometimes be drawn toward nearby locations with
a better environment for them. I don't keep up with the hurricane
research literature, so maybe this has been studied and I have not
heard about it. In the case of Jamaica and Ivan, it is better for
the hurricane to stay over warm water than go over a mountain range.
In the case of Charley, there was a small patch of warmer water
along the coast where it may landfall in Florida that it turned
toward (and which may have influenced its intensification just
before landfall, IMO). Now clearly if things like these influence
the tracks it is a secondary mechanism, because otherwise hurricanes
would seldom or never make landfall because the environment of the
ocean is much more conducive to them. FWIW.

Cheers,
Russell

This is correct!

Hurricanes are 'ocean beings'. They appear to exist only where the
warmest water is and follow that particular path. Remember that jog to
the ENE as Charlie made landfall on Florida? It jogged to the right into
the bay, following the water and re-creating itself as a storm as it
devours the heat energy. Could plainly see the same phenomenon with Ivan
on sat. images last night... jogging to the west below Jamaica.

GKD