DECEMBER-DAY OUTLOOK
500 PM EDT Tue. November 309, 2004


Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical data, and
Canonical Correlation analysis, observed cases from past such months and new
data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.

Current oceanic and atmospheric data indicate that an early stages of a warm
episode in the east-central Pacific is beginning to take place. Sea surface
anomalies greater than +0.5°C persisted across most of the equatorial Pacific.
In early November, this anomaly expanded eastward.

NAO is currently in a positive phase and is forecast to remain positive through
mid-month. The PNA is in a negative phase and is forecast to remain generally
negative to perhaps slightly positive by mid-month. Models are in good
agreement with the 500 MB pattern depicting below normal heights in the West
and above normal in the east through the first 2 weeks. Later in the month,
the pattern is forecast to be more progressive as the trough in the West shifts
eastward. Heights are expected to rise in the West with below normal heights
in the East.

Above normal temperatures are forecast across much of the Rockies westward to
the coast. The probability of above normal temperatures in this region is 57
percent. Below normal temperatures are forecast in the eastern Plains, the
lower, Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys across, the mid-Atlantic and the
Northeast. The probability of below normal temperatures in this region is 56
percent. The remainder of the nation is likely to average near normal with no
significant deviation from normal climatology.

Below normal precipitation is forecast across the Rockies westward.. The
probability of below normal precipitation in this region is 58 percent. Above
normal precipitation is forecast across the central gulf coast northeastward
across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Northeast. The probability of
above normal precipitation in this region is 57 percent. The remainder of the
nation is expected to average near normal with no significant deviation from
normal climatology.

Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx

Probably NOT