Months of well under-average rainfall continue to pass season after
season and year after year.
Drought months are not uncommon, even in late autumn and winter.
Hard rain and storms,even steady rain is disappearing.
Freezing low temps.are rare while 70 degree temps. and clear days are
becoming the norm by early Spring.

Can continual ocean warming,if not cyclical and reversible,eventually
result in arid desertification sometime in this century?

"777thSector" wrote in message
oups.com...
Months of well under-average rainfall continue to pass season after
season and year after year.
Drought months are not uncommon, even in late autumn and winter.
Hard rain and storms,even steady rain is disappearing.
Freezing low temps.are rare while 70 degree temps. and clear days are
becoming the norm by early Spring.

Can continual ocean warming,if not cyclical and reversible,eventually
result in arid desertification sometime in this century?


The view from my window refutes those ideas.

--

... Hank

http://horedson.home.att.net
http://w0rli.home.att.net

"777thSector" wrote in message
oups.com...
Months of well under-average rainfall continue to pass season after
season and year after year.

Actually last year we had a 2+" overage of rain, so go figger.

Drought months are not uncommon, even in late autumn and winter.
Hard rain and storms,even steady rain is disappearing.
Freezing low temps.are rare

Uh.. were you here in the Portland area during last winter with temperatures
in the teens and 20s for over a week? Lots of days had freezing
temperatures.

while 70 degree temps. and clear days are
becoming the norm by early Spring.

Except we had recrod *LOW* temperatures for many stretches during May and
June of 2004. Guess no one remembered that. And highs in the 70s into
October isn't uncommon and hasn't been for quite some time. I remember back
in 1988 we had high temps of near 80 at the *END* of October.

It's astounding how sunny/warm/dry weather is remembered, but major
occurrences like the flood of 96 or the winter of 2003/2004 are "forgotten".
If anything, it's more a shift in selective memory than any real change.

--Neil

Hank Oredson wrote:
"777thSector" wrote in message
oups.com...
Months of well under-average rainfall continue to pass season after
season and year after year.
Drought months are not uncommon, even in late autumn and winter.
Hard rain and storms,even steady rain is disappearing.
Freezing low temps.are rare while 70 degree temps. and clear days
are
becoming the norm by early Spring.

Can continual ocean warming,if not cyclical and
reversible,eventually
result in arid desertification sometime in this century?


The view from my window refutes those ideas.

--

... Hank

http://horedson.home.att.net
http://w0rli.home.att.net

Don't know where your window is, but if it's in the mid-Willamette
valley of OR,you see no snow,ice,or wind,no hard or even steady
rain and no freezing temperature;and this is not an aberration but
a trend.
Ocean warming and its drying effect is no longer debatable.You may
rightly reject the idea of the possibility for desertification,but the
important arguments must deal with the solutions for the long term
effects of a growing population and water depletion.

In article .com,
"777thSector" wrote:

Can continual ocean warming,if not cyclical and reversible,eventually
result in arid desertification sometime in this century?


It is well known that large scale climate change happens. Witness the ice
age, the evidence that areas of the north African deserts were recently
inhabited and forested, and so on.

However, in our own area, I would be more concerned about local
desertification than I would be about global warming. Pretty much
everywhere on earth has experienced some form of desertification, where
foliage removal has been so severe as to cause localized decrease in
rainfall. An awful lot of rich plant-filled areas have been converted
into other uses over the last 100 years. It seems obvious to me that the
effect would be the same in Oregon as it is in China or Africa.

Though, our wind currents from the ocean do tend to prevent a complete
loss of all precipitation, so complete desertification isn't going to
happen without some other major climate changes.

--
-Glennl
e-mail hint: add 1 to quantity after brasil.

"777thSector" wrote in message
oups.com...

Hank Oredson wrote:
"777thSector" wrote in message
oups.com...
Months of well under-average rainfall continue to pass season after
season and year after year.
Drought months are not uncommon, even in late autumn and winter.
Hard rain and storms,even steady rain is disappearing.
Freezing low temps.are rare while 70 degree temps. and clear days
are
becoming the norm by early Spring.

Can continual ocean warming,if not cyclical and
reversible,eventually
result in arid desertification sometime in this century?


The view from my window refutes those ideas.

--

... Hank

http://horedson.home.att.net
http://w0rli.home.att.net

Don't know where your window is, but if it's in the mid-Willamette
valley of OR,you see no snow,ice,or wind,no hard or even steady
rain and no freezing temperature;and this is not an aberration but
a trend.
Ocean warming and its drying effect is no longer debatable.You may
rightly reject the idea of the possibility for desertification,but the
important arguments must deal with the solutions for the long term
effects of a growing population and water depletion.


And here I thought you were talking about climate change,
as opposed to climate variability. The variability is well-known,
and the current observed weather is what one would expect
at this point in the climate cycle. From my window I have
recently seen snow, ice, wind, heavy rain, light rain, fog,
low clouds, sun, sleet and rainfall well within the normal range.

I have seen zero evidence for a possible reduction of rainfall
into the less than 5 inches per year range you suggest. Where
is the evidence for such an occurance?

--

... Hank

http://horedson.home.att.net
http://w0rli.home.att.net

In article ,
"Hank Oredson" wrote:

I have seen zero evidence for a possible reduction of rainfall
into the less than 5 inches per year range you suggest. Where
is the evidence for such an occurance?


Published data in the Oregonian science section several months ago did
indicate an overall shift in the climate here over the long term.

If you think that last year was severe winter, Portland used to actually
get cold in the winter. Columbia River froze solid enough a couple of
times for a few daring souls to drive to Vancouver. You should be able to
find a photo at the Oregon Historical Society of the ferry City of
Vancouver navigating through small ice bergs just after the ice broke up
during one of those winters. The copy of the photo I have shows the
Interstate Avenue bridge going across the Columbia to Vancouver, so the
photo probably dates from the time the bridge was under construction and
ferry operation about to close. One winter in the 1950s (maybe 1955?) was
particularly bad. Also take a look at photos from the winter of 1916 at
the Oregon Historical Society. The snow drifts during that winter were
worthy of Buffalo.

You can't base judgements on climate change over relatively short periods
of time.

--
-Glennl
e-mail hint: add 1 to quantity after brasil.

wrote in message
...
In article ,
"Hank Oredson" wrote:

I have seen zero evidence for a possible reduction of rainfall
into the less than 5 inches per year range you suggest. Where
is the evidence for such an occurance?


Published data in the Oregonian science section several months ago did
indicate an overall shift in the climate here over the long term.

And that is evidence for desertification?
I've not seen anything published anywhere that would suggest same.

If you think that last year was severe winter, Portland used to actually

Why would I think that? Last winter was nice and mild, as usual.

get cold in the winter. Columbia River froze solid enough a couple of
times for a few daring souls to drive to Vancouver. You should be able to
find a photo at the Oregon Historical Society of the ferry City of
Vancouver navigating through small ice bergs just after the ice broke up
during one of those winters. The copy of the photo I have shows the
Interstate Avenue bridge going across the Columbia to Vancouver, so the
photo probably dates from the time the bridge was under construction and
ferry operation about to close. One winter in the 1950s (maybe 1955?) was
particularly bad. Also take a look at photos from the winter of 1916 at
the Oregon Historical Society. The snow drifts during that winter were
worthy of Buffalo.

Yes, I have seen those pictures.
How do they support the idea of desertification?

You can't base judgements on climate change over relatively short periods
of time.

Where did I do that?
I asked for some evidence suggesting the very strong
changes you suggested may happen.

--

... Hank

http://horedson.home.att.net
http://w0rli.home.att.net

) writes:
In article ,
"Hank Oredson" wrote:

I have seen zero evidence for a possible reduction of rainfall
into the less than 5 inches per year range you suggest. Where
is the evidence for such an occurance?

Published data in the Oregonian science section several months ago did
indicate an overall shift in the climate here over the long term.
....
Also take a look at photos from the winter of 1916 at the Oregon
Historical Society. The snow drifts during that winter were
worthy of Buffalo.

I was told, by someone who was usually reliable but I haven't seen
the pictures for myself, that late in the 1800's or early 1900's
that someone had a factory on one side of the river and wanted it
on the other side. So he took either the buildings or maybe it was
the big machinery and put log skids under it. The pictures in the
paper showed the teams of horses dragging the whole thing across
the frozen river.

You can't base judgements on climate change over relatively short periods
of time.

Very true, look at anything over a long enough period of time to
get a valid view of what's happening and how variable it is. Peek
at human population over the last 1,000,000 years if you want to
get a view of the big picture. The data is out there on the web
and I have a graph I did here somewhere.

Glenn wrote:

If you think that last year was severe winter, Portland used to actually
get cold in the winter. Columbia River froze solid enough a couple of
times for a few daring souls to drive to Vancouver. You should be able to
find a photo at the Oregon Historical Society of the ferry City of
Vancouver navigating through small ice bergs just after the ice broke up
during one of those winters. The copy of the photo I have shows the
Interstate Avenue bridge going across the Columbia to Vancouver, so the
photo probably dates from the time the bridge was under construction and
ferry operation about to close. One winter in the 1950s (maybe 1955?) was
particularly bad. Also take a look at photos from the winter of 1916 at
the Oregon Historical Society. The snow drifts during that winter were
worthy of Buffalo.


And some people are complaining that it's not like this
lately?


You can't base judgements on climate change over relatively
short periods of time.


And even a century or more is a short period of time
in this regard.

Bob T