"Dr. Jai Maharaj" wrote in message
news:FuEri3782EmWNI@Zeb

Source - Expressen Dec. 28(Swedish online newspaper) Translated by: CLiss.
http://www.expressen.se/expressen/js...y.jsp?a=223277

"Tsunami warning was stopped"

Just minutes after the earthquake in the Indian Ocean on Sunday morning,
Thailand's foremost meterological experts were sitting together in a crisis
meeting. But they decided not to warn about the tsunami "out of courtesy to the tourist industry",
The Nation (a Thailand daily newspaper.)

The main argument against such a warning was that there have not been any floods
in 300 years. Also, the experts believed the Indonesian island Sumatra would be a
"cushion" for the southern coast of Thailand. The experts also had bad information;
they thought the tremor was 8.1. A similar earthquake occurred in the same area in
2002 with no flooding at all.

We finally decided not to do anything because the tourist season was in full swing.
The hotels were 100% booked full. What if we issued a warning, which would have led
to an evacuation, and nothing had happened. What would be the outcome? The tourist
industry would be immediately hurt.

If this is true then heads must roll. Fortunatley the predominantly
moslem population still believes in revenge and retribution.

Unfortunately such countries are usually ruled by criminals so nothing
official will be done.

What is this about?
Our department would not be able to endure a lawsuit...

All they had to do was explain the facts and get it on the radio.


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Michael Mcneil wrote:

"Dr. Jai Maharaj" wrote in message
news:FuEri3782EmWNI@Zeb

Source - Expressen Dec. 28(Swedish online newspaper) Translated by: CLiss.
http://www.expressen.se/expressen/js...y.jsp?a=223277

"Tsunami warning was stopped"

Just minutes after the earthquake in the Indian Ocean on Sunday morning,
Thailand's foremost meterological experts were sitting together in a crisis
meeting. But they decided not to warn about the tsunami "out of courtesy to the tourist industry",
The Nation (a Thailand daily newspaper.)

The main argument against such a warning was that there have not been any floods
in 300 years. Also, the experts believed the Indonesian island Sumatra would be a
"cushion" for the southern coast of Thailand. The experts also had bad information;
they thought the tremor was 8.1. A similar earthquake occurred in the same area in
2002 with no flooding at all.

We finally decided not to do anything because the tourist season was in full swing.
The hotels were 100% booked full. What if we issued a warning, which would have led
to an evacuation, and nothing had happened. What would be the outcome? The tourist
industry would be immediately hurt.

If this is true then heads must roll.

You may have a point. It does not appear they erred on the side of
caution. However, the situation isn't always clear cut, as anyone
who has ever had operational responsibility for issuing forecasts
or warnings will tell you. There are potential costs involved
either way. A false alarm has costs, both direct (economic loss
and possible death or injury in an evacuation) and indirect (loss
of confidence in the forecasts which may lead to a correct warning
being ignored later). Such decisions often have to be made with
incomplete or incorrect (in this case almost a full magnitude error
in the strength of the earthquake) information under time constraints.
Can there be incompetence or malfeasance? Certainly. Was there in
this case? IMO there is not enough information in the article to be
certain. The one thing that is certain is that better information
should lead to better warnings, but no system will be perfect when
dealing with uncertainies. Better information takes money and
expertise. The real people who deserve blame are those who may have
stood in the way of providing those things.

Fortunatley the predominantly
moslem population still believes in revenge and retribution.

Is Thailand predominantly Muslim? That will come as news to the CIA
which thinks it is 95% Buddhist.


Unfortunately such countries are usually ruled by criminals so nothing
official will be done.

Who in positions of responsibility paid for the mistakes leading to
9/11? Of course, some might argue the U.S. is ruled by criminals so
nothing official was done...

What is this about?
Our department would not be able to endure a lawsuit...

All they had to do was explain the facts and get it on the radio.

A few years ago a weather forecaster in a South American country
was lynched by an angry mob because he failed to forecast a flood.
I suspect he tried to explain the facts to the crowd. And you made
the comment above about revenge and retribution.

Russell
--
All too often the study of data requires care.

"R. Martin" wrote in message


If this is true then heads must roll.

You may have a point. It does not appear they erred on the side of
caution. However, the situation isn't always clear cut, as anyone
who has ever had operational responsibility for issuing forecasts
or warnings will tell you. There are potential costs involved
either way. A false alarm has costs, both direct (economic loss
and possible death or injury in an evacuation) and indirect (loss
of confidence in the forecasts which may lead to a correct warning
being ignored later).

I appreciate that point but it is not up to the people involved to
second guess the effect of their work. I think that they should be
removed from office at least but suspect that those responsible will not
be. If what the government of Britain is anything to go by there will be
a whitewash even if they have an inquiry.

What is this about?
Our department would not be able to endure a lawsuit...

All they had to do was explain the facts and get it on the radio.

A few years ago a weather forecaster in a South American country
was lynched by an angry mob because he failed to forecast a flood.
I suspect he tried to explain the facts to the crowd. And you made
the comment above about revenge and retribution.

Blood costs. If you are in that sort of a job, a plane ticket out the
effing way should be part of the job too.

I know if I was in office and not doing muy job properly I would expect
to be kicked out. I would not be happy if I was thought incompetent
whether or not I was.

I know I am not diligent in anything I do but....

Ah feckit it is too late for this one. Let's just help each other shall
we?


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