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Old May 18th 05, 06:55 PM posted to alt.global-warming,sci.environment,talk.environment,sci.geo.meteorology
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Posts: 1,360
Default 2nd Warmest April in 126 Northern Hemisphere Years.

James cuts and posts articles from a source that he is ashamed
to name. Meanwhile, global mean surface temperatures continue
to rise.

These hemispherically averaged temperature data come from NASA:
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/NH.Ts.txt
They represent the results of tens of millions of readings
taken at thousands of stations covering the lands of the Northern
Hemisphere over the last 125 years. Yes, the data are corrected
for the urban heat island effect.

The Mean Apr temperature over the last 126 years is 14.019 C.
The Variance is 0.16573.
The Standard Deviation, or SIGMA, is 0.4071.

Rxy 0.70388 Rxy^2 0.495447
TEMP = 13.518611 + (0.007878 * (YEAR-1879))
Degrees of Freedom = 124 F = 121.762102
Confidence of nonzero correlation = approximately
0.9999999999999999999 (19 nines)
The month of Apr in the year 2005,
is linearly projected to be 14.511,
yet it was 15.11. -- 1.4 SIGMA above linear
projection!
(Got that Charlew2?)
The sum of the residuals is 29.782244

Exponential least squares fit:
TEMP = 13.524846 * e^(.0005584 * (YEAR-1879))
The sum of the residuals is 29.722274

Rank of the months of April
Year Temp C Anomaly Z score
1998 15.18 1.161 2.85
2005 15.11 1.091 2.68
2000 15.08 1.061 2.61
2004 14.95 0.931 2.29
1990 14.87 0.851 2.09
1995 14.83 0.811 1.99
2003 14.83 0.811 1.99
2002 14.78 0.761 1.87
2001 14.71 0.691 1.70
1994 14.70 0.681 1.67
1999 14.67 0.651 1.60
1991 14.65 0.631 1.55
1981 14.57 0.551 1.35
MEAN 14.019 0.000 0.00
1882 13.53 -0.489 -1.20
1902 13.53 -0.489 -1.20
1887 13.47 -0.549 -1.35
1905 13.46 -0.559 -1.37
1923 13.46 -0.559 -1.37
1885 13.45 -0.569 -1.40
1909 13.44 -0.579 -1.42
1891 13.43 -0.589 -1.45
1917 13.40 -0.619 -1.52
1892 13.37 -0.649 -1.59
1907 13.34 -0.679 -1.67
1918 13.23 -0.789 -1.94
1884 13.20 -0.819 -2.01
1896 13.16 -0.859 -2.11

The most recent 137 continuous months, or 11 years and 5 months,
on this NH.Ts.txt data set are all above the 1951-1980
data set norm of 14 C.
There are 1504 months of data on this data set:
-- 756 of them are at or above the norm.
-- 748 of them are below the norm.
This run of 137 months above the norm is the result of a warming
world. It is too large to occur by chance at any reasonable level
of confidence. A major volcano eruption, thermonuclear war, or
meteor impact could stop this warming trend for a couple of years,
otherwise expect it to continue.


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