Thomas Palm wrote:

Further, global warming alarmists contradict their own scientific
case. If, as the models suggest, warming occurs mostly toward the
poles, the north-south temperature gradient should narrow. If this is
so, the frequency and intensity of hurricanes should diminish. If they
believe their own science, the alarmists should argue global warming is
reducing hurricanes.


Cooke would be more convincing if he didn't show he doesn't understand how
hurriances work. They are driven by local temperature gradients, not the
temperature difference between the pole and the equator. A hurricane is
simply a gigantic heat engine moving heat from the warm sea surface to the
cold stratosphere and further into space. There is no reason to expect
global warming to make this process less efficient.

I believe you are correct - the author is hearing the
probably valid argument that mid-latitude storms should
lose intensity under AGW and mis-applying it to tropical cyclones.
And I understand the importance of SST on tropical cyclone
development and intensity. Further, I find resonance in
LeRoux's analogues with the Holocene Climatic Optimum circulation
which indicates greater tropical flooding as a reuslt of AGW.

That being said, nothing happens outside the general circulation
which is dirven by the pole to equator thermal gradient.
I have access to global GFS model data and I am mesmirized by watching
Antarctic air masses intrude into the Northern Hemisphere both in the
Atlantic and Indian Ocean basins. It appears to me that most
tropical cyclones have their origins in the vortices resulting
from (strongly modified) polar air masses.

Further, shear can rip appart or prevent tropical cyclones.
That shear is a property of the general circulation.

While SST is significant, so is the general circulation.


--

When the Rapture comes, can I have your car?
When global warming comes, can I have your coat?