In article . com, says...

That storm has now been given a name: Tropical Storm NATE.

It is no threat to land, and I've already forgotten it exists. If you
are not flying or sailing out there, it don't mean nothing. It will
come say "boo" to the coast of Florida and disappear in a few days.

Tropical Depression #16 is spinning away over a warm SST patch around Andros
Island in the Bahamas to the east of Florida. Looking at the GOES satellite
shows three storms lined up across the Atlantic, with the newly named NATE in
the middle. The leftmost storm is #16 and has been there for 2 days, located
at roughly the same position that spawned Katrina.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

The storm system to the west may move into the Gulf and then we will be in for
another round...

--
Eric Swanson --- E-mail address: e_swanson(at)skybest.com :-)
--------------------------------------------------------------

The protective wind shear has died down AND moved considerably north
over night.

The Weather service has a lot more instrumentation, including radar,
multiple barometer and wind speed stations. Their tracking skills are
far above mine and I bow to them.

It is not in their job description to make risky early predictions, and
they don't do it because it leads to injured confidence when storms
stunt of fail to grow into something, but I have no doubt that there
are plenty of seasoned weather watchers who could call storms earlier
than I have demonstrated.

The point I have tried to make is this: Climate is nothing more than
the aggregate of weather averaged over a 20-year or longer period of
time. There is plenty of variability year-by-year. People who
understand weather are more likely to understand climate.

People who don't understand how basic weather works probably cannot
judge when they are being butt-screwed by science frauds and hoaxers.

There's too high a noise-level over future climate by people who don't
know how a single storm evolves. They claim to predict future climate
but cannot predict NATE until AFTER the weather service reports it
already exists. The weather service no doubt could have predicted NATE
back when the top of this thread was posted and date & time-stamped,
but their rules do not allow them to do that. No such rules apply here,
where you can easily seperate the wheat from the chaff by asking people
to demonstrate that they understand basic weather forces enough to
predict which fluffy clouds will grow into mean destruction machines
following the laws of physics.

If you can't predict NATE, why should anybody believe your
under-educated opinion that you know enough to read the science right
or understand what you are reading?

That's why a few more people ought to post their predictions and beat
the laws of coincidence. So far I have posted three that got named, and
the latest ain't looking so good right now at 17N, 63W. That's the
risk of predictions -- you might be falsified by experiment -- see what
happens. If your knowledge is solid, your predictions beat coincidence.

Let's call this #17 -- I still say this is the one to watch that will
grow into worse than what's on the screen right now. It is barely big
enough, but it's in a sheltered part of the ocean away from wind shear.
It's drinking the heated waters whether it goes north or or south. It's
not moving fast, so it has time to suck up that heat. This is based on
instrumentation. It's reliable. The water was recently hot enough to
gestate four storms all around this area, and it is doubtful that
enough heat got dissipated so that the bathtub is still full of hot
water. This is science: explain & predict. More instruments would be
better, but I feel there are enough right now to make a way early
guess, and I keep making this farther and farther into the risky zone
of of "maybe". If I keep on getting farther and farther away from from
real actual signs of storm I am bound to fail.

I'm in California and none of this impacts me in a physical weather
way. I don't care that much because I have my plate full of projects
that need more than 24 hours in every day. The point I have been
wanting to make is science can predict the future -- it predicts
individual weather, and individual weather aggregates into climate.

People capable of making weather predictions are capable of making
climate predictions and they are predicting more storms, more
frequently, of more power and violence, all based on physical laws
which are known. Climate will be changing as weather aggregates.

Eric Swanson wrote:

In article . com, says...

That storm has now been given a name: Tropical Storm NATE.

It is no threat to land, and I've already forgotten it exists. If you
are not flying or sailing out there, it don't mean nothing. It will
come say "boo" to the coast of Florida and disappear in a few days.


Tropical Depression #16 is spinning away over a warm SST patch around Andros
Island in the Bahamas to the east of Florida. Looking at the GOES satellite
shows three storms lined up across the Atlantic, with the newly named NATE in
the middle. The leftmost storm is #16 and has been there for 2 days, located
at roughly the same position that spawned Katrina.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

The storm system to the west may move into the Gulf and then we will be in for
another round...


Rather than simply guessing, you (all) could look at the forecast...

James

In article ,
says...

Eric Swanson wrote:

In article . com,
says...

That storm has now been given a name: Tropical Storm NATE.

It is no threat to land, and I've already forgotten it exists. If you
are not flying or sailing out there, it don't mean nothing. It will
come say "boo" to the coast of Florida and disappear in a few days.


Tropical Depression #16 is spinning away over a warm SST patch around Andros
Island in the Bahamas to the east of Florida. Looking at the GOES satellite
shows three storms lined up across the Atlantic, with the newly named NATE
in
the middle. The leftmost storm is #16 and has been there for 2 days,
located
at roughly the same position that spawned Katrina.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

The storm system to the west may move into the Gulf and then we will be in
for
another round...


Rather than simply guessing, you (all) could look at the forecast...

I tried that with Katrina. For a couple of days, the forcasts predicted it
would turn to the north, first while it was east of Florida, then as it
tracked WSW, each forcast said it would turn north. It finally did and we
have seen the result.

As for #16, is't been sitting roughly stationary for 2 days. The latest
advisory (#2) says:

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 35 KM...NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
AND ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT.

The first advisory stated:

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT
10 MILES... 20 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT
180 MILES... 290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD
BEGIN LATER TODAY.

In other words, they are guessing which way it will move.
The storm has moved 10 km in 6 hours....

--
Eric Swanson --- E-mail address: e_swanson(at)skybest.com :-)
--------------------------------------------------------------

Rather than simply guessing, you (all) could look at the forecast...

"Guessing" in science is called "Prediction". It is based on the best
understand one possesses, which might not give much better resukts than
coincidence, but science progresses by getting a bit right, then
refining and getting more right with ever greater accuracy of
prediction.

Looking at somebody else's prediction does not test your own
understanding. If "he' could predict, how come "you" can't? What does
he know that you haven't learned?

James Annan is a consumer of science, not a practicer of science. James
Annan "buys" prediction instead of makes predictions. That means James
Annan does not have confidence in his knowledge of basic physics. Since
James Annan knows best about James Annan's deficiencies, all I need
point out is that Annan has given his reduced evaluation of Annan's
opinion on weather science.

Climate is weather over a 20 year or longer time period. In other
words, there is no part of climate which is not built of weather
events. If Annan cannot call weather but has to buy weather reports,
what can Annan possibly know about climate. In orther words, Annan i
wearing a sign around his neck saying "I am a loud-mouth, swelled head,
and I want you to pay attention to the ignorant pronouncements I
publish".

My "predictions" are three correct for three published predictions, and
the forth prediction is time and date stamped out there right now. If
you think that is trivially easy, do so yourself. NATE was predicted 48
hours before the weather service gave it as name or even a number. When
James Annan predicts exactly what the weather service predicts, after
the weather service website has already posted its prediction, that
only shows that Annan can read, not that he comprehends any science.

The PRO and the CON forces for global warming arguments need to post
some testable predictions showing they understand the science that
climate is built upon. If you can't predict two days ahead, your
predictions 20 years from now are even more worthless. People who can't
predict basic weather cannot truely understand when they are being
hoodwinked by paid professional liars doing science hoaxes to defraud
the body politic. They quote bizzare websites like the moonie
Washington Times, they quote the arch criminal science hoaxers S. Fred
Singer and Steven J. Milloy, and they quote the T.C.I. PR agency-run
website Tech Central Station that had three staff working on the Swift
Boat hoax project.

Like the Tobacco RICO criminal conspiracy, the pollution lobby just
wants "controversy" not resolution -- as long as the debate continues
they can point and say "see, even the scientists disagree". But what if
the disagreement is between people who can shovel jargon but can't
actually do any science. Shouldn't we end the controversy by excluding
everybody who can trust their physics knowledge enough to make
predictions which come true more often than coincidence? Why play into
the corporate Organized Crime game plan?

My record is three for three this storm season. What's yours? My
understanding of science is PROVABLY superior to your understanding,
because you know best how weak your knowledge really is. You are quite
correct to not make predictions which would surely expose your flawed
understanding to ridicule when one after another of your windbag,
fat-head predictions turns into embarrassment.

Lucky for you there are a lot of fat head windbags around for camoflage
you can hide behind each other and pretend that quotes from other
people with PhDs behind their names means you understand what the hell
they are talking about. If the PhDs can't beat my record they are fat
head windbags too, because science is about two things -- only two
things -- never more, never less, than tow things: (1) Explain & (2)
Predict. If either one is absent it is NOT science. Because PhDs can't
predict climate if they can't predict weather -- it really is that
simple, climate is made of weather. If you don't understand weather
then you can't understand climate.

We can cut a lot of the "controversy" away from the global warming
"debate" by ignoring dumb-bells who haven't learned their basic physics
yet enough to beat the weather service with predictions. The weather
service is deliberately conservative, and waits before publishing. That
means they THEY know before they report and you could know BEFORE THEY
REPORT too, based on access to the same data. It so happens the data is
public for everybody to access.

MEANWHILE, the ONLY guy on this newsgroup who has put a prediction out
with timestamp and datestamp well ahead of the weather service is
telling you that you talk too much and understand too little, and I
don't give a squat how many PhDs you trail after your name. Explain AND
Predict, or else keep studing -- you don't know enough yet to have a
turn on the megaphone.

In article , says...

Advisory #3 - The latest position/speed information...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES... 105 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND AND ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH
... 6 KM/HR. A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

Comparing the lat/lon position change over the last 6 hrs, #16 appears to be
have moved almost due north.

As for #16, is't been sitting roughly stationary for 2 days. Advisory (#2) said:

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 35 KM...NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
AND ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT.

The first advisory stated:

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT
10 MILES... 20 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT
180 MILES... 290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD
BEGIN LATER TODAY.


--
Eric Swanson --- E-mail address: e_swanson(at)skybest.com :-)
--------------------------------------------------------------

In article , says...

says...

7 Sept - Advisory #5 - 12 hours later - now moving north/northwest, MOL

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT
85 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. THIS GENERAL SLOW
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

The projected track shows the storm missing landfall in Florida and turning
toward the NE, perhaps completely missing the US coast...

6 Sept - Advisory #3 - The latest position/speed information...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES... 105 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND AND ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH
... 6 KM/HR. A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

Comparing the lat/lon position change over the last 6 hrs, #16 appears to be
have moved almost due north.

As for #16, is't been sitting roughly stationary for 2 days. Advisory (#2) said:

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 35 KM...NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
AND ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT.

The first advisory stated:

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT
10 MILES... 20 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT
180 MILES... 290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD
BEGIN LATER TODAY.


--
Eric Swanson --- E-mail address: e_swanson(at)skybest.com :-)
--------------------------------------------------------------

Eric Swanson wrote:

The projected track shows the storm missing landfall in Florida and turning
toward the NE, perhaps completely missing the US coast...

The current (5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005) discussion reflects the
increasing insecurity about Ophelia:

"MODELS CONTINUE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK. THE
GFS WHICH LOOPED THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE WEST IN THE PREVIOUS
RUN...IS NOW SHOWING A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NOGAPS WHICH
EARLIER TURN OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM FLORIDA IS BRINGING
THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE U.S. COAST. THE GFDL STUBBORNLY INSISTS ON
A TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE STORY GOES
ON AND ON. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE THE LUXURY OF
MAKING SUCH LARGE CHANGES IN TRACK EVERY SIX HOUR...THE BEST OPTION
FOR WEAK STEERING CURRENT SCENARIOS IS TO MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE
NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION OF THE
CONSENSUS."

It is therefor entirely possible it crosses Florida into the Gulf ..
again ..

--
Rich

In article , says...

says...
says...


7 Sept - Advisory #6

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT
80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A
DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

See comment by "Rich" regarding the discussion of the storm's future track.

7 Sept - Advisory #5 - 12 hours later - now moving north/northwest, MOL

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT
85 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. THIS GENERAL SLOW
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

The projected track shows the storm missing landfall in Florida and turning
toward the NE, perhaps completely missing the US coast...

6 Sept - Advisory #3 - The latest position/speed information...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES... 105 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND AND ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH
... 6 KM/HR. A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

Comparing the lat/lon position change over the last 6 hrs, #16 appears to be
have moved almost due north.

As for #16, is't been sitting roughly stationary for 2 days. Advisory (#2) said:

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 35 KM...NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
AND ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT.

The first advisory stated:

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT
10 MILES... 20 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT
180 MILES... 290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD
BEGIN LATER TODAY.

--
Eric Swanson --- E-mail address: e_swanson(at)skybest.com :-)
--------------------------------------------------------------

In article , says...

says...
says...
says...


7 Sept - Advisory #7

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. A GENERALLY NORTHWARD DRIFT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Opheia is still stuck in neutral.
Minor point: it's not 8 MAM EDT yet...

7 Sept - Advisory #6

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT
80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A
DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

See comment by "Rich" regarding the discussion of the storm's future track.

7 Sept - Advisory #5 - 12 hours later - now moving north/northwest, MOL

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT
85 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. THIS GENERAL SLOW
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

The projected track shows the storm missing landfall in Florida and turning
toward the NE, perhaps completely missing the US coast...

6 Sept - Advisory #3 - The latest position/speed information...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES... 105 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND AND ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH
... 6 KM/HR. A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

Comparing the lat/lon position change over the last 6 hrs, #16 appears to be
have moved almost due north.

As for #16, is't been sitting roughly stationary for 2 days. Advisory (#2)
said:

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 35 KM...NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
AND ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT.

The first advisory stated:

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT
10 MILES... 20 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT
180 MILES... 290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD
BEGIN LATER TODAY.

--
Eric Swanson --- E-mail address: e_swanson(at)skybest.com :-)
--------------------------------------------------------------


--
Eric Swanson --- E-mail address: e_swanson(at)skybest.com :-)
--------------------------------------------------------------