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sci.geo.meteorology (Meteorology) (sci.geo.meteorology) For the discussion of meteorology and related topics. |
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http://tinyurl.com/7q4xp 1851-2002 Wikipedia 2003-2005 The Bottom Line: Stats for 1996-2005 ten-year stretch: 78% more tropical storms than average. 43% more Hurricanes Category 1 than average. 25% less Hurricanes Category 2 than average. 38% more Major Hurricanes Category 3 than average. 195% more Major Hurricanes Category 4 than average. 252% more Major Hurricanes Category 5 than average. Figures recomputed and published Oct-18-2005 By adding in the latest years storms the entire record average is raised, even though the same number of storms occurred in yesteryears. Then by comparing the latest decade to a higher total average, it reduces the apparent increase in this decades activity. A fair comparison would be the record from 1851-1995 to 1996-2005 to get the true picture of how much more severe the weather has gotten this past decade. ========================================== Breakdown by category per annum 1851-2005: For brevity sake, abbreviations are used: TS = Tropical Storm C1 = Hurricane Category 1, C2 = Hurricane Category 2 C3, C4, C5 = Major Hurricanes Category 3, 4 & 5 respectively. TS 23 years with 1 31 years with 2 24 years with 3 24 years with 4 16 years with 5 9 years with 6 7 years with 7 5 years with 8 3 years with 9 1 year with 11 C1 43 years with 1 38 years with 2 25 years with 3 12 years with 4 10 years with 5 2 years with 6 C2 50 years with 1 36 years with 2 13 years with 3 9 years with 4 2 years with 5 C3 51 years with 1 27 years with 2 12 years with 3 4 years with 4 1 years with 5 1 year with 6 C4 45 years with 1 16 years with 2 4 years with 3 1 year with 5 C5 20 Years with 1 3 years with 2 23 years had 1 Tropical Storm (23 TS) 31 years had 2 Tropical Storms (62 TS) 24 years had 3 Tropical Storms (72 TS) 29 years had 4 Tropical Storms (116 TS) 16 years had 5 Tropical Storms (80 TS) 9 years had 6 Tropical Storms (54 TS) 7 years had 7 Tropical Storms (49 TS) 5 years had 8 Tropical Storms (40 TS) 3 years had 9 Tropical Storms (27 TS) 1 year had 11 Tropical Storms (11 TS) 23+31+24+29+16+9+7+5+3+1= 148 years had 1 or more Tropical Storms. Total # of TS = 23+62+72+116+80+54+49+40+27+11= 534 Tropical Storms. % years of record have TS = 155/1 x 148 = 95% Average # of TS = 474/155 = 3.45 TS per year. 43 years had one Cat 1 (43 C1s) 38 years has two Cat 1s (76 C1s) 25 years had three Cat 1s (75 C1s) 12 years had four Cat 1s (48 C1s) 10 years had five cat 1s (50 C1s) 2 years had six Cat 1s (12 C1s) 43+38+25+12+10+2=130 years had 1 or more cat 1s. Total # of C1 = 43+76+75+48+50+12 = 304 Hurricanes Category 1 % years of record have C1s = 155/1 x 130 = 84% Average # of C1s = 304/155 = 1.96 C1s per year. 50 years had 1 Cat 2 (50 C2s) 36 years had 2 Cat 2s (72 C2s) 13 years had 3 Cat 2s (39 C2s) 9 years had 4 Cat 2s (36 C2s) 2 years had 5 cat 2s (10 C2s) 50+36+13+9+2=110 years had 1 or more cat 2s Total # of C2 = 50+72+39+36+10 = 207 Hurricanes Category 2 % years of record have C2s = 155/1 x 110 = 71% Average # of C2s = 207/155 = 1.34 C2s per year. 51 years had 1 Cat 3 (51 C3s) 27 years had 2 Cat 3s (54 C3s) 12 years had 3 Cat 3s (36 C3s) 4 years had 4 Cat 3s (16 C3s) 1 year had 5 Cat 3 (5 C3s) 1 year had 6 Cat 3s (6 C3s) 51+27+12+4+1+1= 96 years had 1 or more Cat 3s Total # of C3 = 51+54+36+16+5+6 = 168 Major Hurricanes Category 3 % years of record have C3s = 155/1 x 96 = 61% Average # of C3s = 168/155 = 1.08 C3s per year. 45 years had 1 Cat 4 (45 C4s) 16 years had 2 Cat 4s (32 C4s) 4 years had 3 Cat 4s (12 C4s) 1 year had 5 Cat 4s (5 C4s) 45+16+4+1= 66 years had one or more Cat 4s. Total # of C4 = 45+32+12+5 = 94 Major Hurricanes Category 4 % years of record have C4s = 155/1 x 66 = 43% Average # of C4s = 94/155 = 0.61 C4s per year. 20 years had one Cat 5 (20 C5s) 3 years had 2 Cat 5s (6 C5s) 20+3= 23 years had one or more Cat 5s Total # of C5 = 20+6 = 26 Major Hurricanes Category 5 % years of record have C5s = 155/1 x 23 = 15% Average # of C5s = 26/155 = 0.17 C5s per year. Total All Storms: 512 TS + 304 C1 + 208 C2 + 166 C3 + 89 C4 + 21 C5 = 1,300 Storms =========== Total # of TS = 534 Tropical Storms. Total # of C1 = 304 Hurricanes Category 1 Total # of C2 = 207 Hurricanes Category 2 Total # of C3 = 168 Major Hurricanes Category 3 Total # of C4 = 94 Major Hurricanes Category 4 Total # of C5 = 26 Major Hurricanes Category 5 534 TS + 304 C1 + 207 C2 + 168 C3 + 94 C4 + 26 C5 = 1,333 Storms Statistical frequency 1851-2005 (155 years): 8.6 storms per year average, 866 storms per ten year-sequence. TS = 3.45 per year, 34.5 per 10-years C1 = 1.96 per year, 19.6 per 10-years C2 = 1.33 per year, 13.3 per 10-years C3 = 1.08 per year, 10.8 per 10-years C4 = 0.61 per year, 6.1 per 10-years C5 = 0.17 per year, 1.7 per 10-years The chances of having 2 Cat 5 storms in one year are 1:50 1995 : TS=8, C1=4, C2=2, C3=2, C4=3 1996 : TS=4, C1=3, C2=0, C3=4, C4=2 1997 : TS=5, C1=1, C2=0, C3=1 1998 : TS=4, C1=3, C2=4, C3=1, C4=1, C5=1 1999 : TS=4, C1=0, C2=3, C3=0, C4=5 2000 : TS=7, C1=5, C2=0, C3=1, C4=2 2001 : TS=6, C1=5, C2=0, C3=2, C4=2 2002 : TS=8, C1=1, C2=1, C3=1, C4=1 2003 : TS=9, C1=3, C2=1, C3=2, C4=0, C5=1 2004 : TS=5, C1=1, C2=1, C3=2, C4=3, C5=1 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals TS= 8+4+5+4+4+7+6+8+9+5= 60 Tropical Storms Totals C1= 4+3+1+3+0+5+5+1+3+1= 26 Hurricanes Category 1 Totals C2= 2+0+0+4+3+0+0+1+1+1= 12 Hurricanes Category 2 Totals C3= 2+4+1+1+0+1+2+1+2+2= 16 Major Hurricanes Category 3 Totals C4= 3+2+0+1+5+2+2+1+0+3= 19 Major Hurricanes Category 4 Totals C5= 0+0+0+0+0+0+0+0+1+1= 2 Major Hurricanes Category 5 Stats for 1995-2004 ten-year stretch: 74% more tropical storms than average. 33% more Hurricanes Category 1 than average. 10% less Hurricanes Category 2 than average. 17% more Major Hurricanes Category 5 than average. Dropping year 1995, adding year 2005, the 10-year stretch from 1996-2005 Stats: 1996 : TS=4, C1=3, C2=0, C3=4, C4=2 1997 : TS=5, C1=1, C2=0, C3=1 1998 : TS=4, C1=3, C2=4, C3=1, C4=1, C5=1 1999 : TS=4, C1=0, C2=3, C3=0, C4=5 2000 : TS=7, C1=5, C2=0, C3=1, C4=2 2001 : TS=6, C1=5, C2=0, C3=2, C4=2 2002 : TS=8, C1=1, C2=1, C3=1, C4=1 2003 : TS=9, C1=3, C2=1, C3=2, C4=0, C5=1 2004 : TS=5, C1=1, C2=1, C3=2, C4=3, C5=1 2005 : TS=9, C1=6, C2=0, C3=1, C4=2, C5=2 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals TS= 4+5+4+4+7+6+8+9+5+9= 61 Tropical Storms Totals C1= 3+1+3+0+5+5+1+3+1+6= 28 Hurricanes Category 1 Totals C2= 0+0+4+3+0+0+1+1+1+0= 10 Hurricanes Category 2 Totals C3= 4+1+1+0+1+2+1+2+2+1= 15 Major Hurricanes Category 3 Totals C4= 2+0+1+5+2+2+1+0+3+2= 18 Major Hurricanes Category 4 Totals C5= 0+0+1+0+0+0+0+1+1+2= 6 Major Hurricanes Category 5 Stats for 1996-2005 ten-year stretch: 78% more tropical storms than average. 43% more Hurricanes Category 1 than average. 25% less Hurricanes Category 2 than average. 38% more Major Hurricanes Category 3 than average. 195% more Major Hurricanes Category 4 than average. 252% more Major Hurricanes Category 5 than average. Figures recomputed and published Oct-18-2005 By adding in the latest years storms the entire record average is raised, even though the same number of storms occurred in yesteryears. Then by comparing the latest decade to a higher total average, it reduces the apparent increase in this decades activity. A fair comparison would be the record from 1851-1995 to 1996-2005 to get the true picture of how much more severe the weather has gotten this past decade. |
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