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Old October 19th 05, 10:07 AM posted to alt.global-warming,sci.environment,sci.geo.meteorology
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Oct 2005
Posts: 13
Default NEW Comparison Hurricane records 1851-1995 versus 1996-2005

By adding in the latest years storms the entire record average is
raised, even though the same number of storms occurred in yesteryears.
Then by comparing the latest decade to a higher total average, it
reduces the apparent increase in this decades activity. A fair
comparison would be the record from 1851-1995 to 1996-2005 to get the
true picture of how much more severe the weather has gotten this past
decade.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCE 1996-2005 to averages 1851-1995
108% MORE Tropical Storms, 1996-2005
47% MORE Hurricanes Category 1, 1996-2005
29% LESS Hurricanes Category 2, 1996-2005
43% MORE MAJOR Hurricanes Category 3, 1996-2005
80% MORE MAJOR Hurricanes Category 4, 1996-2005
257% MORE MAJOR Hurricanes Category 5, 1996-2005
(Not counting Wilma past TS stage)

====== the math used to compute =========
http://tinyurl.com/bbw92
Archived copy of msg: The Hurricane Record (adapted from HURDAT
1851-2002 with 2003-2005 from
Wikipedia)
Use this URL for reference data these figures were computed from.

http://tinyurl.com/7gpnq
Archived copy of msg: Latest Recomputation of Hurricane Intensification
(inclusion of 2005 data upto TS Wilma)
Correction link for above: http://tinyurl.com/9yvss

COMPARISON 1851-1995 to 1996-2005
For brevity sake, abbreviations are used:
TS = Tropical Storm
C1 = Hurricane Category 1, C2 = Hurricane Category 2

1851-1995 (145 years)
TS : 23=1, 31=2, 24=3, 26=4, 14=5, 8=6, 6=7, 4=8, 1=9, 1=11
23+(31x2=62)+(24x3=72)+(14x5=70)+(8x6=48)+(6x7=42) +(4x8=32)+9+11= 369
Tropical Storms
C1 : 40=1, 38=2, 22=3, 12=4, 8=5, 1=6
40+(38x2=76)+(22x3=66)+(12x4=48)+(8x5=40)+6= 275 Hurricanes Category 1
C2 : 47=1, 36=2, 12=3, 8=4, 2=5
47+(36x2=72)+(12x3=36)+(8x4=32)+(2x5=10)= 197 Hurricanes Category 2
C3 : 46=1, 24=2, 12=3, 3=4, 1=5, 1=6
46+(24x2=48)+(12x3=36)+(3x4=12)+5+6= 153 MAJOR Hurricanes Category 3
C4 : 43=1, 12=2, 3=3
43+(12x2=24)+(3x3=9)= 76 MAJOR Hurricanes Category 4
C5 : 17=1, 2=2
17+(2x2=4)= 21 MAJOR Hurricanes Category 5

1996-2005 (ten years)
TS : 3=4, 2=5, 1=6, 1=7, 1=8, 2=9
(3x4=12)+(2x5=10)+6+7+8+9= 52 Tropical Storms
C1 : 3=1, 3=3, 2=5, 1=6
3+(3x3=9)+(2x5=10)+6= 28 Hurricanes Category 1
C2 : 3=1, 1=3, 1=4
3+3+4= 10 Hurricanes Category 2
C3 : 5=1, 3=2, 1=4
5+(3x2=6)+4= 15 MAJOR Hurricanes Category 3
C4 : 2=1, 4=2, 1=3, 1=5
2+(4x2=8)+3+5= 18 MAJOR Hurricanes Category 4
C5 : 3=1, 1=2
3+2= 5 MAJOR Hurricanes Category 5

1851-1995 (145 years)
369/145 = 2.5 TS per year = 25 per 10-years Tropical Storms
275/145= 1.9 C1 per year = 19 per 10-years Hurricanes Category 1
197/145= 1.4 C2 per year = 14 per 10-years Hurricanes Category 2
153/145= 1.05 C3 per year = 10.5 per 10-years MAJOR Hurricanes Category
3
76/145= 0.52 per year = 5.2 per 10-years MAJOR Hurricanes Category 4
21/145= 0.14 per year = 1.4 per 10-years MAJOR Hurricanes Category 5

1996-2005 (10 years)
52/10= 5.2 per year = 52 per 10-years Tropical Storms
28/10= 2.8 per year = 28 per 10-years Hurricanes Category 1
10/10= 1 per year = 10 per 10-years Hurricanes Category 2
15/10= 1.5 per year = 15 per 10-years MAJOR Hurricanes Category 3
18/10= 1.8 per year = 18 per 10-years MAJOR Hurricanes Category 4
5/10= 0.5 per year = 5 per 10-years MAJOR Hurricanes Category 5

PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCE 1996-2005 to averages 1851-1995
1/25 x 52 = 108% MORE Tropical Storms, 1996-2005
1/19 x 28 = 47% MORE Hurricanes Category 1, 1996-2005
1/14 x 10 = 29% LESS Hurricanes Category 2, 1996-2005
1/10.5 x 15 = 43% MORE MAJOR Hurricanes Category 3, 1996-2005
1/10 x 18 = 80% MORE MAJOR Hurricanes Category 4, 1996-2005
1/1.4 x 5 = 257% MORE MAJOR Hurricanes Category 5, 1996-2005

 
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