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sci.geo.meteorology (Meteorology) (sci.geo.meteorology) For the discussion of meteorology and related topics. |
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#1
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...tml?5day?large
Tropical Depression TWENTY-SEVEN http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/140258.shtml TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005 ....THE TWENTY-SEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... .... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ....AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY. WINDS MAY GUST TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/140259.shtml TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005 UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY RAPID DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. AFTERWARDS... THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT... AT WHICH TIME MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE INTENSITY UP TO 66 KT IN 108 HOURS... WHEREAS THE GFDL MAKES THE CYCLONE A 112-KT MAJOR HURRICANE AT THE SAME TIME. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL FORECAST TRACK... WHICH TAKES THE STORM SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS COLOMBIA WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THEY ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP STRONGER THAN INDICATED AFTER 72 HOURS... GIVEN THE MUCH LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE 96- AND 120-HOUR OFFICIAL FORECAST POSITIONS. -------- It is noted for the record that only 2 of the 26 previous numbered tropical depressions this season failed to go onwards to become named storms. This depression is only 1 mph below named strength. |
#2
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Addendum...
Jeff Masters Weather Underground Blog: http://www.weatherunderground.com/bl...ters/show.html Posted By: JeffMasters at 4:39 AM GMT on November 14, 2005 After suffering through the made-for-TV movie "Category 7: End of the World" about meteorologically impossible storms that nearly destroy the world, I came back to the all-too-real world of the Hurricane Season of 2005, which I would have thought was a near impossibility had you told me before the season started what would transpire. Twenty-seven tropical cyclones? Unreal! Tropical Depression 27 is very unimpressive tonight. Wind shear is still rather high right now, at 10 - 15 knots, and these hostile winds are keeping the area of deep convection around the storm small. The shear may even act to tear the storm apart Monday or Tuesday. TD 27 does have the potential to grow into a hurricane, and possibly a major hurricane, if it can survive the next two days and make it into the central Caribbean where the waters will be warmer and the wind shear lighter. I'll be back in the morning with a full analysis. Jeff Masters |
#3
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Even if you account for the slow growth of the number
of storms per year in the Atlantic Basin, this year, with 27 storms, is better than a 1 in 10,000 event in the 155 year long record. This year's season is not over with yet, and may go into extra innings. Something very 'special' is going on in the Atlantic Basin. |
#4
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![]() "Roger Coppock" wrote in message oups.com... Even if you account for the slow growth of the number of storms per year in the Atlantic Basin, this year, with 27 storms, is better than a 1 in 10,000 event in the 155 year long record. Your record is incomplete. And you know it . . . This year's season is not over with yet, and may go into extra innings. Something very 'special' is going on in the Atlantic Basin. |
#5
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![]() Jik Bombo wrote: "Roger Coppock" wrote in message oups.com... Even if you account for the slow growth of the number of storms per year in the Atlantic Basin, this year, with 27 storms, is better than a 1 in 10,000 event in the 155 year long record. Your record is incomplete. And you know it . . . ALL RECORDS ARE INCOMPLETE. They are all we have to go on. Their incompleteness never disturbed you when they predicted good climate, now accept them as you did then. Argue the facts of what incompleteness you feel is important and where we might look for records that never got into the official records. Or shut up Bu****e Liar for Oil Companies killing people through toxic exhausts. |
#6
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The data I used are the best available to me.
The data are from the NOAA web page given at this URL: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/...arandStorm.htm The number of storms were counted on the yearly maps provided. If you have better data for Atlantic Basin huricane numbers, Mr. Bombast, please post them here. Realize that your data would have to significantly differ from those i used in order to change the 1 in 10,000 event calculation. The data I used are below: Year Storms 1851 6 1852 5 1853 8 1854 4 1855 5 1856 6 1857 4 1858 6 1859 8 1860 7 1861 8 1862 6 1863 9 1864 5 1865 7 1866 7 1867 9 1868 4 1869 10 1870 11 1871 8 1872 5 1873 5 1874 7 1875 6 1876 5 1877 8 1878 12 1879 8 1880 11 1881 7 1882 6 1883 4 1884 4 1885 8 1886 12 1887 19 1888 9 1889 9 1890 4 1891 11 1892 9 1893 12 1894 7 1895 6 1896 7 1897 6 1898 11 1899 9 1900 7 1901 12 1902 5 1903 10 1904 5 1905 5 1906 11 1907 5 1908 10 1909 11 1910 5 1911 6 1912 7 1913 6 1914 1 1915 5 1916 14 1917 3 1918 5 1919 3 1920 4 1921 6 1922 4 1923 7 1924 8 1925 2 1926 11 1927 7 1928 6 1929 3 1930 2 1931 9 1932 11 1933 21 1934 11 1935 6 1936 16 1937 9 1938 8 1939 5 1940 8 1941 6 1942 10 1943 10 1944 11 1945 11 1946 6 1947 9 1948 9 1949 13 1950 13 1951 10 1952 7 1953 14 1954 11 1955 12 1956 8 1957 8 1958 10 1959 11 1960 7 1961 11 1962 5 1963 9 1964 12 1965 6 1966 11 1967 8 1968 8 1969 15 1970 10 1971 13 1972 7 1973 8 1974 11 1975 9 1976 10 1977 6 1978 12 1979 9 1980 11 1981 12 1982 6 1983 4 1984 13 1985 11 1986 6 1987 7 1988 12 1989 11 1990 14 1991 8 1992 7 1993 8 1994 7 1995 19 1996 13 1997 8 1998 14 1999 12 2000 15 2001 15 2002 12 2003 16 2004 15 2005 27 |
#7
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![]() "Roger Coppock" wrote in message oups.com... The data I used are the best available to me. The data are from the NOAA web page given at this URL: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/...arandStorm.htm The number of storms were counted on the yearly maps provided. If you have better data for Atlantic Basin huricane numbers, Mr. Bombast, please post them here. Realize that your data would have to significantly differ from those i used in order to change the 1 in 10,000 event calculation. The data I used are below: Was your data collected under the same condition and in the same manner all the way back to 1851? No? Then address the implications of that revelation. Year Storms 1851 6 1852 5 1853 8 1854 4 1855 5 1856 6 1857 4 1858 6 1859 8 1860 7 1861 8 1862 6 1863 9 1864 5 1865 7 1866 7 1867 9 1868 4 1869 10 1870 11 1871 8 1872 5 1873 5 1874 7 1875 6 1876 5 1877 8 1878 12 1879 8 1880 11 1881 7 1882 6 1883 4 1884 4 1885 8 1886 12 1887 19 1888 9 1889 9 1890 4 1891 11 1892 9 1893 12 1894 7 1895 6 1896 7 1897 6 1898 11 1899 9 1900 7 1901 12 1902 5 1903 10 1904 5 1905 5 1906 11 1907 5 1908 10 1909 11 1910 5 1911 6 1912 7 1913 6 1914 1 1915 5 1916 14 1917 3 1918 5 1919 3 1920 4 1921 6 1922 4 1923 7 1924 8 1925 2 1926 11 1927 7 1928 6 1929 3 1930 2 1931 9 1932 11 1933 21 1934 11 1935 6 1936 16 1937 9 1938 8 1939 5 1940 8 1941 6 1942 10 1943 10 1944 11 1945 11 1946 6 1947 9 1948 9 1949 13 1950 13 1951 10 1952 7 1953 14 1954 11 1955 12 1956 8 1957 8 1958 10 1959 11 1960 7 1961 11 1962 5 1963 9 1964 12 1965 6 1966 11 1967 8 1968 8 1969 15 1970 10 1971 13 1972 7 1973 8 1974 11 1975 9 1976 10 1977 6 1978 12 1979 9 1980 11 1981 12 1982 6 1983 4 1984 13 1985 11 1986 6 1987 7 1988 12 1989 11 1990 14 1991 8 1992 7 1993 8 1994 7 1995 19 1996 13 1997 8 1998 14 1999 12 2000 15 2001 15 2002 12 2003 16 2004 15 2005 27 |
#8
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Jik Bombo wrote:
"Roger Coppock" wrote in message oups.com... The data I used are the best available to me. The data are from the NOAA web page given at this URL: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/...arandStorm.htm The number of storms were counted on the yearly maps provided. If you have better data for Atlantic Basin huricane numbers, Mr. Bombast, please post them here. Realize that your data would have to significantly differ from those i used in order to change the 1 in 10,000 event calculation. The data I used are below: Was your data collected under the same condition and in the same manner all the way back to 1851? No? Then address the implications of that revelation. I believe that discussion has already occurred. Scott |
#9
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![]() "Scott" wrote in message ... Jik Bombo wrote: "Roger Coppock" wrote in message oups.com... The data I used are the best available to me. The data are from the NOAA web page given at this URL: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/...arandStorm.htm The number of storms were counted on the yearly maps provided. If you have better data for Atlantic Basin huricane numbers, Mr. Bombast, please post them here. Realize that your data would have to significantly differ from those i used in order to change the 1 in 10,000 event calculation. The data I used are below: Was your data collected under the same condition and in the same manner all the way back to 1851? No? Then address the implications of that revelation. I believe that discussion has already occurred. And yet Roger continues to use incomplete datasets. That's the coin of the realm with AGW. It doesn't matter that the data is incomplete, it supports the theory. Scott |
#10
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Jik Bombo wrote:
"Scott" wrote in message ... Jik Bombo wrote: "Roger Coppock" wrote in message egroups.com... The data I used are the best available to me. The data are from the NOAA web page given at this URL: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/...arandStorm.htm The number of storms were counted on the yearly maps provided. If you have better data for Atlantic Basin huricane numbers, Mr. Bombast, please post them here. Realize that your data would have to significantly differ from those i used in order to change the 1 in 10,000 event calculation. The data I used are below: Was your data collected under the same condition and in the same manner all the way back to 1851? No? Then address the implications of that revelation. I believe that discussion has already occurred. And yet Roger continues to use incomplete datasets. That's the coin of the realm with AGW. It doesn't matter that the data is incomplete, it supports the theory. The meteorological dataset that is totally complete does not exist. Scott |
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