DECEMBER-FEBRUARY 2005
90-Day Forecast
300 PM EDT Fri. December 2, 2005

Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, various models, observed cases from past winters, sea surface
temperatures were analyzed but is not expected to affect on the global
circulation. Other trends such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the
PDO, soil moisture content where used in this forecast.

Surface and subsurface water temperatures in the eastern equatorial
Pacific are near normal also. This indicates that near normal
conditions are expected for through the end of the year.

NAO is currently is currently negative and is forecast to remain
generally negative through the next two weeks. The PNA is negative and
is forecast to trend positive through the next two weeks. At this time
there is mo way to predict these indicated past 14 days, however,
persistent favors this to extend further. The upper pattern this winter
season is similar to that in the 30-day forecast with below normal
heights across Alaska, a ridge off the West coast and a trough across
the Great Lakes. Above normal heights are also expected near
Greenland.

Above normal temperatures are expected from the western Plains
westward. The probability of above normal temperatures in this region
is 59 percent. Below normal temperatures are expected from the eastern
Plains eastward. The probability of below normal temperatures in this
region is 57 percent. The remainder of the nation is expected to be
near normal with no significant deviation from climatology.

Below normal precipitation is expected across the central and southern
Rockies eastward into the Mississippi Valley. The probability of below
normal precipitation in this region is 59 percent. Above normal
precipitation is expected along the East coast. The probability of
above normal precipitation in this region is 56 percent. This will be
caused from warmer than normal surface sea temperatures in the western
Atlantic which may tend to lead to more intense coastal storms. The
remainder of the nation is expected to be near normal with no
significant deviation from climatology.

Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx