MARCH 2006 30-DAY OUTLOOK
500 PM EST Wed. March 1, 2006
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, and various models, along with observed cases from past such
months and also data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.
Oceanic and atmospheric indicators indicate that La Nina conditions
have developed in the tropical Pacific. Below normal sea surface
temperatures were observed along the Equator and extend west to about
15°W. Most areas are at least 0.5°C below normal. Much above normal
anomalies were observed west of 155°E. However, near normal sea
surface temperatures have developed near the South American coast. The
forecast calls for sea surface temperatures to remain near or below
normal through March.
All teleconnection indices are currently negative. AO is forecast to
trend negative to neutral. NAO and the PNA are forecast towards
neutral. The 500 MB pattern is forecast to consist of above normal
heights in the central Pacific, a trough along the West and the East
coast, with below normal heights extending into Europe. A ridge will be
across central North America. Later in the month, models tend to weaken
the strong blocking north of Hudson Bay and cause retrogressing of the
positive heights in the central Pacific. Heights lower in the Plains
with below normal heights expected across much of the nation by
mid-month.
Below normal temperatures are forecast along the West coast. The
probability of below normal temperatures in this region is 56 percent.
Above normal temperatures are forecast for the eastern Rockies into the
western Plains and the southern Plains. The probability of above normal
temperatures across this region is 56 percent. Below normal
temperatures are forecast for the Ohio Valley, the mid-Atlantic and the
Northeast. The probability of below normal temperatures in this region
is 56 percent. The remainder of the nation is likely to average near
normal with no significant deviation from normal climatology.
Above normal precipitation is forecast for the Northwest into northwest
Montana. The probability of above normal precipitation in this region
is 58 percent. Below normal precipitation is forecast for the southern
Rockies northeastward into the western Plains. The probability of below
normal precipitation is 56 percent. Above normal precipitation is
forecast from the central gulf coast northeastward. The probability of
above normal precipitation in this region is 56 percent. The remainder
of the nation is expected to average near normal with no significant
deviation from normal climatology.
Jim G. Munley, jr.,
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx/