In article . com,
says...

Harold Brooks wrote:
In article .com,
says...

Would you mind supplying a link to the research if there is one online?
It would help me to put that one to bed at least.

There's no specific research, but a little knowledge of synoptic
meteorology indicates that there's no reason to expect a relationship ~
120 degrees of longitude apart in the mid-latitudes at the same time. A
strong trough moving out of the lee of the Rockies could have a very
deep trough associated with extreme cold anywhere or not at all. The
last two big cold events in Germany that I can find any info on (16 Nov
2000, 23 Dec 2003) were associated with 1 weak tornado and none at all
in the US.

No research on the topic has been done because there's really no reason
to do it. There are an infinite number of things that could be compared
to tornado occurrence in the US. People start by working on those
things that there's some physical reason to believe have a relationship.
Extreme cold in Germany wouldn't be at the bottom of the infinite list,
but it wouldn't be close to the top.

A small point I may have mislead you on is that I am not talking about
degrees of longitude or latitude. You need a globe and a compass. Just
watch some of the quakes posted on the NEIC site walking along a great
circel on occasion.

Obviously some days the list is too large and flooded with quake on
different lines. But some days it runs clear and true.

There is one prticular thread on which I was talking about the
relationship with cyclones and earhtquakes on another forum some time
ago. I'll find it and post the gist if I can ask you to bother reading
it?

I've read your cyclones and earthquake stuff before and it's made no
sense then, either.


If not, no harm done. By the way can you tell me if any region of the
world has a major fog event ATM? I can find nothing on the subject. I
suspect China. Perhaps one of the major deltas in that neck of the
woods?



Fogs sufficiently common at this time of year that I'm sure there's a
"major" (depending on your definition of major) fog event every day.
--
Harold Brooks
hebrooks87 hotmail.com

Harold Brooks wrote:snip

Nicely parried sir, nicely parried.

H. E. Taylor wrote:

When does the tornado season in the States usually begin?

The UK is due for a record low temperature/frost this evening. No doubt
Wati is coming ashore and of course there are tornado warnings on
hehttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/

All mere coincidence of course.

Yes! Really!!

Harold Brooks wrote:

Fogs sufficiently common at this time of year that I'm sure there's a
"major" (depending on your definition of major) fog event every day.

Just because something makes no sense, does not mean it isn't most of
the answer. Consider how long Newton was kept waiting for the correct
data after stumbling on the conclusion about the inverse square law and
gravity.

The last day of the last spell brought record cold temperatures in
parts of the UK . It also brought heightened warnings of tornados and
of course the spell took in thos two cyclones in Australia.
Just coincidence. And meaningless kookery.

Here is something that has been researched on the subject at hand:
Nasa News Stories Archive March 15, 2006
NASA STUDY LINKS "SMOG" TO ARCTIC WARMING

Ozone is formed from several other chemicals found in the atmosphere
near the Earth's surface that come from both natural sources and
human activities such as fossil fuel burning, cement manufacturing,
fertilizer application and biomass burning. Ozone is one of several air
pollutants regulated in the United States by the U. S. Environmental
Protection Agency.
http://eobglossary.gsfc.nasa.gov/New...031521918.html

They have lost the plot of course but they formed a link, however
tenuous.
What a pity they couldn't get someone to stick with it.

Harold Brooks wrote:

I see the part in the NASA release about warming Arctic winters, but I
missed the bits about record cold in the UK, tornado warnings in the US,
and tropical cyclones in Australia.

What a pity they couldn't get someone to stick with it.

I'm sure the research is continuing.

That's the problem in a nutshell. Those in the know miss an awful lot.
But since you have no way of disproving my ideas at the moment you may
as well forget it.

We have had an interesting spell and quite a lot of fireworks in it.
Whether it is just coincidence remains to be seen. One thing is for
certain you won't see it if you keep your eyes closed.

In article . com,
says...

Harold Brooks wrote:

I see the part in the NASA release about warming Arctic winters, but I
missed the bits about record cold in the UK, tornado warnings in the US,
and tropical cyclones in Australia.

What a pity they couldn't get someone to stick with it.

I'm sure the research is continuing.

That's the problem in a nutshell. Those in the know miss an awful lot.
But since you have no way of disproving my ideas at the moment you may
as well forget it.

The burden of proof is on you.

Your original "coincidence" would have been just as interesting with
"record cold in UK", "no tornado warnings in US", and "tropical cyclones
in Australia" as the combination you mentioned. Looking at anomalies of
monthly-mean Central England Temperature and report-inflation-adjusted
US tornadoes from 1970-2004, the correlation between US tornadoes and
CET anomalies is 0.038. (Restricting it just to winter raises it to ~
0.1.) Paying attention the time that two events happen at the same time
and not paying attention all the time they don't is a bad idea.

The biggest wintertime tornado outbreak in recent years in the US (21
January 1999) was associated with warm temperatures in the UK and
flooding rain in the southwestern UK.


We have had an interesting spell and quite a lot of fireworks in it.
Whether it is just coincidence remains to be seen. One thing is for
certain you won't see it if you keep your eyes closed.

Another thing is that anecdotal evidence of a single combination of
events doesn't mean very much, especially when you look at the
combination and find that one of them is just as likely to occur as not,
when one of the events happens.

Harold
--
Harold Brooks
Head, Mesoscale Applications Group
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory

In article .com,
says...

Harold Brooks wrote:
In article . com,
says...

Harold Brooks wrote:

I see the part in the NASA release about warming Arctic winters, but I
missed the bits about record cold in the UK, tornado warnings in the US,
and tropical cyclones in Australia.

What a pity they couldn't get someone to stick with it.

I'm sure the research is continuing.

That's the problem in a nutshell. Those in the know miss an awful lot.
But since you have no way of disproving my ideas at the moment you may
as well forget it.

The burden of proof is on you.

Your original "coincidence" would have been just as interesting with
"record cold in UK", "no tornado warnings in US", and "tropical cyclones
in Australia" as the combination you mentioned. Looking at anomalies of
monthly-mean Central England Temperature and report-inflation-adjusted
US tornadoes from 1970-2004, the correlation between US tornadoes and
CET anomalies is 0.038. (Restricting it just to winter raises it to ~
0.1.) Paying attention the time that two events happen at the same time
and not paying attention all the time they don't is a bad idea.

The biggest wintertime tornado outbreak in recent years in the US (21
January 1999) was associated with warm temperatures in the UK and
flooding rain in the southwestern UK.


We have had an interesting spell and quite a lot of fireworks in it.
Whether it is just coincidence remains to be seen. One thing is for
certain you won't see it if you keep your eyes closed.

Another thing is that anecdotal evidence of a single combination of
events doesn't mean very much, especially when you look at the
combination and find that one of them is just as likely to occur as not,
when one of the events happens.

There you go with the closed mind again.

You just pointed out another anomaly but because it was exactly
opposite to the one I was on about, you see proof positive of negative
proof.

What I see is no relationship between the events.


Take a stepback from defending your province and see the opportunity
before you. Look at anomalies a little more attentively. You mentioned
March in an earlier post. Mists and frosts occur here in March as often
as not. Check out everything, leave no stone unturned and mybe the one
true god will show you something.

Other than science, I'm not defending any province. The systematic
recorded data of occurrence of events (the anomalies) tell us that
record cold temperatures in England tell us nothing about the occurrence
of tornadoes in the US. If there are record cold temperatures, there
might be tornadoes in the US. Then again, there might not be. The
record cold temperatures in England tell me as much about tornado
occurrence in the US as flipping coins or studying chicken entrails
would. That's what you get from looking at the anomalies very
attentively.


But you really must try harder.

As it happens I was calling all the shots in the hurricane season last
year. Then I was left high and dry with notheing to explain the
complete blank I was drawing this year.

Then it all fell back into place with a big bang according to the way I
have stated it tends to in my folkloric methodology. Just because I am
on a steep curve doesn't mean I am heading in the wrong direction.

Actually, you've never made enough verifiable predictions to provide any
idea what direction you're running. With the precision you put out, you
essentially forecast climatology.


Get on the roller coaster or get off the effing tracks you muppet;
because I will run you over without qualm.

I don't tolerate rude people very well. Good-bye.

Harold

--
Harold Brooks
Head, Mesoscale Applications Group
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory

Harold Brooks wrote:
In article , "TQ" ToweringQs AT
adelphia.net says...
"H. E. Taylor" wrote in message
...
Greetings,
When does the tornado season in the States usually begin?
curious
-het


From http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/#Climatology...

"What is tornado season? Tornado season usually means the peak period for
historical tornado reports in an area, when averaged over the history of
reports. There is a general northward shift in "tornado season" in the U.S.
from late winter through mid summer. The peak period for tornadoes in the
southern plains, for example, is during May into early June. On the Gulf
coast, it is earlier during the spring; in the northern plains and upper
Midwest, it is June or July. Remember: tornadoes can happen any time of year
if the conditions are right! If you want to know the tornado peak periods
for your area, Harold Brooks of NSSL has prepared numerous tornado
probability graphics, which include distribution during the year."

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/hazard/hazardmap.html

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/hazgraph3.pl


The fundamental problem is in defining "start" of the season at any
location. Defining the midpoint is easy, but start is a more nebulous
concept. There aren't any artificial dates, such as the 1 June for the
hurricane season, and the areas of threat move around during the year.

Harold
--
Harold Brooks
Head, Mesoscale Applications Group
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory

I feel it's best to be a litle rude to experts than for me to allow
them to get away with murder:

Consider what happened on this occasion. It isn't much but as far as I
am aware it is the only or nearest thing to a forewarning about the
BandaAtjeh business that I can find on the internet.

Perhaps someone else can do better. If so why not tell me about it?

"Michael Mcneil" wrote in message

news:5ffe245abec2c9ca6a42dc5fe04cf5d4.45219@mygate .mailgate.org

According to the BBC, the weather in the UK should be of the
"interesting" variety on Thursday. Some uncertainty has been
commensurate with the build up in magnitudes shown on the neic site.

Again according to the Beeb the next one to look out for is on
Sunday(ish.)

They seem to be, if a little hesitant, more accurate than not. The next
lunar phase is tomorrow (Saturday the 18th.) It is substantially the
same as the last phase, although I haven't got a longitude. (I thought
I
had more time to look. (Naughty me!))

So, a break in the weather seems to have brought disaster and this next
phase is probably going to be a similar spell which will run through to
boxing day or thereabouts. But we always have a storm around Xmass
time.

I wonder what ship is going to go aground this time.

--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

http://groups.google.co.uk/group/sci...3ddbd546f85ec1

At the time I was thinking more in terms of the annual event in the
waters around Britain at Crismas time, a ship going aground in the
soltice storms. As it happened the grounding took place off
Scandinavia. But I canfes that the storms moved to the Equinoctial O/A
rom that year.

In article .com,
says...
Harold Brooks wrote:
In article , "TQ" ToweringQs AT
adelphia.net says...
"H. E. Taylor" wrote in message
...
Greetings,
When does the tornado season in the States usually begin?
curious
-het


From http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/#Climatology...

"What is tornado season? Tornado season usually means the peak period for
historical tornado reports in an area, when averaged over the history of
reports. There is a general northward shift in "tornado season" in the U.S.
from late winter through mid summer. The peak period for tornadoes in the
southern plains, for example, is during May into early June. On the Gulf
coast, it is earlier during the spring; in the northern plains and upper
Midwest, it is June or July. Remember: tornadoes can happen any time of year
if the conditions are right! If you want to know the tornado peak periods
for your area, Harold Brooks of NSSL has prepared numerous tornado
probability graphics, which include distribution during the year."

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/hazard/hazardmap.html

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/hazgraph3.pl


The fundamental problem is in defining "start" of the season at any
location. Defining the midpoint is easy, but start is a more nebulous
concept. There aren't any artificial dates, such as the 1 June for the
hurricane season, and the areas of threat move around during the year.

Harold
--
Harold Brooks
Head, Mesoscale Applications Group
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory

I feel it's best to be a litle rude to experts than for me to allow
them to get away with murder:

Why in the world are you replying to my post to put this in?


Consider what happened on this occasion. It isn't much but as far as I
am aware it is the only or nearest thing to a forewarning about the
BandaAtjeh business that I can find on the internet.

What you quote yourself as writing below isn't remotely close to a
"forewarning" for the tsunami.


Perhaps someone else can do better. If so why not tell me about it?

"Michael Mcneil" wrote in message

news:5ffe245abec2c9ca6a42dc5fe04cf5d4.45219@mygate .mailgate.org

According to the BBC, the weather in the UK should be of the
"interesting" variety on Thursday. Some uncertainty has been
commensurate with the build up in magnitudes shown on the neic site.

Again according to the Beeb the next one to look out for is on
Sunday(ish.)

They seem to be, if a little hesitant, more accurate than not. The next
lunar phase is tomorrow (Saturday the 18th.) It is substantially the
same as the last phase, although I haven't got a longitude. (I thought
I
had more time to look. (Naughty me!))

So, a break in the weather seems to have brought disaster and this next
phase is probably going to be a similar spell which will run through to
boxing day or thereabouts. But we always have a storm around Xmass
time.

I wonder what ship is going to go aground this time.

--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

http://groups.google.co.uk/group/sci...3ddbd546f85ec1

At the time I was thinking more in terms of the annual event in the
waters around Britain at Crismas time, a ship going aground in the
soltice storms. As it happened the grounding took place off
Scandinavia. But I canfes that the storms moved to the Equinoctial O/A
rom that year.



--
Harold Brooks
Head, Mesoscale Applications Group
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory

Harold Brooks wrote:

What you quote yourself as writing below isn't remotely close to a
"forewarning" for the tsunami.

You absolute cretin.

I was warning that there would be a disaster that spell and you saw
millions die and that's all you have to say?

Rot in hell.

*********************
Perhaps someone else can do better. If so why not tell me about it?

And if any jumped up paper pushers want to put me in their kill files
for MySake if not God's -or any sexual one; keep me there.

For any one meek enough and serious enough to want to know more, this
is how that disasterous spell was forecast. (Harold Brooks, kindly ****
off will you? Go and ply your trolls elsewhere.)

The original thread was posted here. Similar posts may have been made
to one or two other newsgroups around that time:
http://groups.google.co.uk/group/sci...3ddbd546f85ec1

I got the times of the phases from Fred Espinak:
http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html#y2004

This gave a run of the phases as:

JAN. 7 15 40 JAN. 15 4 46
JAN. 21 21 05 JAN. 29 6 03 FEB. 6 8 47 FEB. 13 13 40
FEB. 20 9 18 FEB. 28 3 24 MAR. 6 23 14 MAR. 13 21 01
MAR. 20 22 41 MAR. 28 23 48 APR. 5 11 03 APR. 12 3 46
APR. 19 13 21 APR. 27 17 32 MAY 4 20 33 MAY 11 11 04
MAY 19 4 52 MAY 27 7 57 JUNE 3 4 20 JUNE 9 20 02
JUNE 17 20 27 JUNE 25 19 08 JULY 2 11 09 JULY 9 7 34
JULY 17 11 24 JULY 25 3 37 JULY 31 18 05 AUG. 7 22 01
AUG. 16 1 24 AUG. 23 10 12 AUG. 30 2 22 SEPT. 6 15 11
SEPT. 14 14 29 SEPT. 21 15 54 SEPT. 28 13 09 OCT. 6 10 12
OCT. 14 2 48 OCT. 20 21 59 OCT. 28 3 07 NOV. 5 5 53
NOV. 12 14 27 NOV. 19 5 50 NOV. 26 20 07 DEC. 5 0 53
DEC. 12 1 29 DEC. 18 16 40 DEC. 26 15 06

The weather forecast was worked out by simply dividing the hour of the
time of the phase by three.

If it divided equally by 6 (that is: If he phase fell on 12 or 6
o'clock) that gave me dull overcast or misty weather (which we now know
equates with the cyclonic maximum for the southern part of the North
Atlantic.)

If it divided by 3 but not by 6 ( i.e. 3 or 9 o'clock) that gave me the
spell for thunder of the sort you could set your clock by in Abergele
or Stoke on Trent.

If it left a remainder of 1 hour (e.g.7 o'clock) that gave me the
spells for the cyclonic weather over western Europe.

If it divided by three to give a remainder of 2 (e.g. 5 o'clock) that
put the cyclone at home on the longitude of Iceland.

Of course only a fool would attempt to explain what caused this without
knowing more about it. And a really stupid fool of the proportions of
an Harold Brooks would attempt to poke at the system without making
even a slight attempt to understand it. (Harold; I told you to **** off
you ****! There is only more of this in store for you.)

(I told you he was a bloody big fool didn't I?)

OK, so let's take it from the middle of October:
OCT. 14 2 48 OCT. 20 21 59 OCT. 28 3 07 NOV. 5 5 53
NOV. 12 14 27 NOV. 19 5 50 NOV. 26 20 07 DEC. 5 0 53
DEC. 12 1 29 DEC. 18 16 40 DEC. 26 15 06

These phases are written month day hour minute. From the
precepts:
http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...fd32adde2c5e/#

The time is reduced to the nearest hour with an allowance of something
in the region of 10 to 15 minutes. So tha the 14th OCT. 02:48 = 03:00
we get:

03:00 Thundery
22:00 Cyclonic.
03:00 Thundery
06:00
14:30 I would ave been thrown by this, then. It's half way between fine
and thunder. A frontal system of rather difficult weather to get a fix
on. Lots of broken occlusions or a mainly warm but an occluded front
going to Norway. (So you see; they are still a PITA.)
06:00
20 00
00:00
01 30 This is an interesting one being a spell for intense cyclonic
weather in the UK but an half of the thudery one.
16:40
15:00 This is a thunder spell. And for January the third:
18:00

Note they almost all divide nicely by 3. In fact so many were falling
on that time I bet a synergistical system built up so that the spells
ran through the ones that would normally have been different.

And further, that one at 16:40 is a very unstable spell (as it happens,
it is the time of phase for the spell at the moment (13 April 2006
16:40 ) if you want to look.) Check out what I have said about such
types in the past.

Had I known then what I know now, I would have been shouting a lot
louder that something major was about to happen to the system.

But I was uneasy about my abilities. (Which is why I was a little more
gentle with Harold Brooks earlier on in this thread. Some-one drag away
his sorry carcass now, will you?)

(Someone else check what the Chandler Wabble was doing at the end of
2004. I bet it wound down by Novemberish and started to come right in
January.) It certainly did something momentous during that run.

Prove me wrong.

*******

"If I listened to the opinions of generals or military officers in the
field, we'd never have had the success we've had in running this war.
So, I'm not about to start listening now."
Donald H. Rumsfeld.

(According to the Wikipedia he served in the U.S. Navy from 1954 to
1957 as an aviator and flight instructor. Rumsfeld is an Eagle Scout
and recipient of the Distinguished Eagle Scout Award from the Boy
Scouts of America. After that his career appears to have nose dived
sharply.)