July 2006 30-DAY OUTLOOK
400 PM EST Fri. June 30, 2006
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, and various models, along with observed cases from past such
months and also data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.
Oceanic and atmospheric indicators indicate a weak El Nino conditions
in the eastern and central Pacific. Sea surface temperatures along the
Equator in this region are a little above normal. Therefore, little if
any impact is expected of the global circulation during July.
Teleconnection indices such as NAO, is currently positive and is
forecast to trend towards neutral to negative through the next two
weeks. The PNA is in a negative phase and is forecast to remain
negative and eventually positive by the next two weeks. The 500-HPA
circulation is forecast to consist of a trough off the West coast, a
fairly intense ridge in the West and a trough somewhere between the
Ohio Valley and the East coast.
The models are in good agreement with the temperature forecast. They
depict above normal temperatures across a large portion of the nation.
This is where soil moisture content is deficient. Therefore, above
normal temperatures can be expected across the Plains westward. The
probability of above normal temperatures in this region is 56 percent
but increase to 60 percent across the southern Plains. Below normal
temperatures are forecast across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. The
probability of below normal temperatures in this region is 56 percent.
The remainder of the nation is likely to average near normal with no
significant deviation from normal climatology.
Below normal precipitation is forecast for much of the West and the
central and southern Plains. Soil moisture content across the Plains
and parts of the West will play a role in this region as supported by
the CCA, OCN and the CFS. The probability of below normal precipitation
in this region is 57 percent. Above normal precipitation is forecast
from the central gulf coast northeastward along the East coast. The
probability of above normal precipitation in this region is 57 percent.
The remainder of the nation is expected to average near normal with no
significant deviation from normal climatology.
James G. Munley, jr.,
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx/