The below is an example of GIGO and the absurdity of modeling climate.
If we are to believe the press release, the albedo effect of planting
more trees will increase earth temperatures by 2F, or even 6F at
certain lattitudes.

Comment: this proves that even nature can "globally warm" the earth.
If there were no humans, then more trees would exist and these would
raise earth tempratures by 2-6F. So what are we so worried about? But
for man, the earth would already be 2-6F hotter.

Then the press release makes the claim "But after several decades,
carbon dioxide would begin diffusing from the ocean into the
atmosphere, diminishing the cooling effect and warming the Earth in the
long term."

Comment: if this is not a typo (and it might be) this presumes that
the ocean is saturated with CO2 and this CO2 will diffuse into the
atmosphere once atmospheric CO2 is removed. This, if true, shows that
even if we magically removed all CO2 from the atmosphere, the partial
pressures would be such that the atmosphere would fill up again with
the same concentration of CO2. Like trying to bail out a sinking
oceanliner with a bucket.

Conclusion: indeed, as Main Street and Wall Street have implicitly
agreed, as has Europe and Japan who signed the Kyoto Treaty and are not
even meeting it have implicitly agreed, the best strategy for combating
GW is a "wait and see" attitude, to see how things actually play out,
rather than depending on bogus and contrdictory "computer simulations"
from some geek's basement.

RL

http://www.carnegieinstitution.org/n...s_0512_05.html

Monday December 5, 2005

Carnegie Contact: Dr. Ken Caldeira;


Or (650) 704-7212

For images see http://www.carnegieinstitution.org/temperateforests/

Study: Temperate Forests Could Worsen Global Warming

STANFORD, CA - Growing a forest might sound like a good idea to combat
global warming, since trees draw carbon dioxide from the air and
release cool water from their leaves. But they also absorb sunlight,
warming the air in the process. According to a new study from the
Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology and Lawrence
Livermore National Laboratory, planting forests at certain latitudes
could make the Earth warmer. Carnegie's Ken Caldeira will present the
work at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting in San Francisco on
December 7, 2005.

The researchers used complex climate modeling software to simulate
changes in forest cover and then examined the effects on global
climate. Their results were surprising. "We were hoping to find that
growing forests in the United States would help slow global warming,"
Caldeira said. "But if we are not careful, growing forests could make
global warming even worse."

The researchers found that while tropical forests help keep Earth cool
by evaporating a great deal of water, northern forests tend to warm the
Earth because they absorb a lot of sunlight without losing much
moisture. In one simulation, the researchers covered much of the
northern hemisphere (above 20° latitude) with forests and saw a jump
in surface air temperature of more than 6° F. Covering the entire
planet's land mass with trees led to a more modest increase of about
2° F.

When the scientists restricted the simulation to middle latitudes such
as the continental United States, the picture was not quite so clear.
At first, cooling due to the uptake of carbon dioxide would offset
warming from sunlight absorption. But after several decades, carbon
dioxide would begin diffusing from the ocean into the atmosphere,
diminishing the cooling effect and warming the Earth in the long term.

Caldeira warns against planting forests on abandoned croplands as a
strategy to combat global warming, which some have recommended. But he
also recognizes the importance of forests.

"I like forests. They provide good habitats for plants and animals,
and tropical forests are good for climate, so we should be particularly
careful to preserve them," Caldeira commented. "But in terms of
climate change, we should focus our efforts on things that can really
make a difference, like improving efficiency and developing new sources
of clean energy."

The study, authored by Seran Gibbard,* Ken Caldeira, Govindasamy Bala,*
Thomas J. Phillips,* and Michael Wickett,* will be published online
under the title "Climate effects of global land cover change" in
the journal Geophysical Research Letters on December 8, 2005.

Photo caption: