MEMOIRS OF THE LITERARY AND PHILOSOPHICAL SOCIETY OF MANCHESTER

SECOND EDITION

LONDON

PRINTED FOR T. CADWELL IN THE STRAND

MD C C L X X XIX

METEOROLOGICAL IMAGINATIONS and CONJECTURES. By BENJAMIN FRANKLIN, LL.D
F. R. S. and acad. reg. Scient. Paris. Soc. etc. Communicated by Dr.
PERCIVAL. Read December 22, I784.

THERE seems to be a region higher in the air over all countries, where
it is always winter, where frost exitfls continua1ly, fince, in the
midf of fummer on the furface of the earth, ice falls often from above
in the form of hail. Haiftones, of the great weight we fometimes find
them, did not probably acquire their magnitude before they began
todercend. The air, being eight hundred times rarer than water, is
unable to fupport it but in the fhape of vapour a ftate in which its
particles are feparated. As foon as they are condenfed by the cold of
the upper region, fo as to form a drop, that drop begins to fa11.

If it freezes into a grain of ice, that ice defcends. In defcending,
both the drop of water, and the grain of ice, are augmented by
particles of the vapour they pafs through in falling, and'which they
condenfe by their coldnefs, and attach to themfelves. It is pofflble
that, in fummer, much of what is rain, when it arrives at the furface
of the earth~ might have been fnow, when it began its defcent; but
being thawed, in paffng through the warm air near the furface, it is
changed from fnow to rain. How imrnenfely cold muft be the original
particle of hail, which forms the center of the future hailftone, fince
it is capable of communicating fufficient cold, if I may fo fpeak, to
freeze all the mafs of vapour condenfed round it, and form a lump of
perhaps fix or eight ounces in weight.

When, in fummer time, the run is high, and continues long every day
above the horizon, his rays ftrike the earth more directly, and with
longer continuence, than in the winter; hence, the furface is more
heated, and to a greater depth, by the heat of thofe rays.

When rain fa!ls on the heated earth, and falls down into it, it carries
down with it a great part of the heat, which by that means defcends
ftill deeper.

The mafs of earth, to the depth perhaps of thirty feet, being thus
heated to a certain degree, continues to retain its heat for fome time.
Thus the firft fnows that fall in the bsginning of winter, feldom lie
long on the furface, .but are foon melted, and fioon abforbed. After
which, the winds that blow over the country on which the finows had
fallen, are not rendefed fo cold as they would have been by thofe
fnows, if they had remained. And thus the approach of .the feverity of
winter is retarded; and the extreme degree of its cold is not always at
the time we might expect it, viz. when the fun is at its greateft
diftance, and the day fhorteft, but fome time after .that period,
according to the Englifh proverb which fays, "as the day lengthens, the
cold ftrengthens;" the caufes of refigeration continuing to operate,
while the fun returns too flowly and his force continues too weak to
counteract them.

During feveral of the fummer months of thc year 1783, when the effect
of the fun's rays to heat the earth in these northern regions fhould
have been greater, there exifted a conftant fog over all Europe, and
great part of North America- This fog was of a permanent nature; it was
dry, and the rays of the fun feemed to have little effect towards
diffipating it, as they eafily do a moift fog, arifing from water. They
were indeed rendcred fo faint in paffing through it, that when
collefted in the focus of a burning glafs they woul;l fcarce kindle
brown paper.

Of courfe, their fummer effect in heating the earth was exceedingly
diminifhed.

Hence the furface was early frozen;

Hence the firft snows remained on it unmelted, and received continual
additions. Hence the air was more chilled, and the winds more feverely
cold.

Hence perhaps the winter of 1783-4, was mor fevere, than any that had
happened for rnany years.

The caufe of this univerfal fog is not yet afcertained. Whether it was
adventitious to this earth, and merely a fmoke, proceeding from the
confumption by fire of fome of thofe great burning balls or globes
which we happen to meet with in our rapid courfe round the fun, and
which are fomecimes feen to kindle and be deftroyed in paffng our
atmofphere, and whofe fmoke might be attracted and retained by our
earth; or whether it was the vaft quantity of fmoke, long continuing;
to iffue'during the fummer fiom IIecla in Iceland, and that other
volcano which arofe out of the fea near that ifland, which rmoke might
be fpread by various winds, over the northern part of the world, is yet
uncertain. It feems however worth the enquiry, whether other hard
winters, recorded in hiftory, were preceded by fimilar permanent and
widely extended fummer fogs. Becaufe, if found to be fo, men migbt from
fuch.fogs conjecture tbe probability of fucceeding hard winter, and of
the damage. to be expected by the breaking up of frozen rivers in the
fpring; and take fuch measures as are poffible and practicable, to
fecure themfelves and effects from the mirchiefs that attended the
laft.

Passy, May 1784.
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~volcano/Fr373p77.html

It would seem that the year 1783 was not that dissimilar to last year.
Of couse April 2006 hardly counts as winter but hey; he was only posing
some connections he'd come up with. If it can be shown that it was a
year of many hurricanes in the North Atlantic, that would be a
clincher.

I'll be damned if the yanks will insist on calling it the Franklin
Effect. It should be called the McNeil Cycle.

Weatherlawyer wrote:

METEOROLOGICAL IMAGINATIONS and CONJECTURES. By BENJAMIN FRANKLIN, LL.D
F. R. S. and acad. reg. Scient. Paris. Soc. etc. Communicated by Dr.
PERCIVAL. Read December 22, I784.

[snip]

Hence perhaps the winter of 1783-4, was mor fevere, than any that had
happened for rnany years.

The caufe of this univerfal fog is not yet afcertained. Whether it was
adventitious to this earth, and merely a fmoke, proceeding from the
confumption by fire of fome of thofe great burning balls or globes
which we happen to meet with in our rapid courfe round the fun, and
which are fomecimes feen to kindle and be deftroyed in paffng our
atmofphere, and whofe fmoke might be attracted and retained by our
earth; or whether it was the vaft quantity of fmoke, long continuing;
to iffue'during the fummer fiom IIecla in Iceland, and that other
volcano which arofe out of the fea near that ifland, which rmoke might
be fpread by various winds, over the northern part of the world, is yet
uncertain.

Franklin was right to suspect that the 1783 Laki eruption in Iceland
was to blame. See for example the pages on most deadly historic
eruptions and on Laki in particular.

http://volcano.und.edu/vwdocs/Gases/laki.html
http://volcano.und.edu/vwdocs/volc_i...asia/laki.html

It had a particularly strong effect on E coast USA winters (and a very
damaging effect on Iceland 10000 dead by starvation, and livestock
annihilated by flouride poisoning).

It would seem that the year 1783 was not that dissimilar to last year.

Utter ********!

Regards,
Martin Brown

Martin Brown wrote:
Weatherlawyer wrote:

METEOROLOGICAL IMAGINATIONS and CONJECTURES. By BENJAMIN FRANKLIN, LL.D
F. R. S. and acad. reg. Scient. Paris. Soc. etc. Communicated by Dr.
PERCIVAL. Read December 22, I784.

[snip]

Hence perhaps the winter of 1783-4, was mor fevere, than any that had
happened for rnany years.

The caufe of this univerfal fog is not yet afcertained. Whether it was
adventitious to this earth, and merely a fmoke, proceeding from the
confumption by fire of fome of thofe great burning balls or globes
which we happen to meet with in our rapid courfe round the fun, and
which are fomecimes feen to kindle and be deftroyed in paffng our
atmofphere, and whofe fmoke might be attracted and retained by our
earth; or whether it was the vaft quantity of fmoke, long continuing;
to iffue'during the fummer fiom IIecla in Iceland, and that other
volcano which arofe out of the fea near that ifland, which rmoke might
be fpread by various winds, over the northern part of the world, is yet
uncertain.

Franklin was right to suspect that the 1783 Laki eruption in Iceland
was to blame. See for example the pages on most deadly historic
eruptions and on Laki in particular.

http://volcano.und.edu/vwdocs/Gases/laki.html
http://volcano.und.edu/vwdocs/volc_i...asia/laki.html

It had a particularly strong effect on E coast USA winters (and a very
damaging effect on Iceland 10000 dead by starvation, and livestock
annihilated by flouride poisoning).

It would seem that the year 1783 was not that dissimilar to last year.

Utter ********!

Well we all talk that from time to time. No doubt several specimen of
your variety thought the same when Franklin posted his musings.

In the meantime take a look at this:
http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,ht...racknell+13 2

Normally when an Atlantic Low runs ashore on NW Europe it petres out
PDQ after first producing an occluded front concomitant with a rise in
normal earthquake magnitudes earthwide. NEIC will report Mag sixes and
up. (When they occur after a long spell of similar weather (as noted in
the UK, that is) the site will show Mag 7's and up.)

When the scenario in the link above arises, you will see an increased
volcanic activity reported. Either that too is utter ******** or
Weatherlawyer scores another one.

Unfortunaltely the scale for volcanoes doesn't have anything like the
tuning that earthquakes have. So making a survey of the archives is a
fraught occupation. Take it or leave it it's up to you.

I care nothing for you as I don't know you. As I post this I have
already forgoten your name.

You will remember mine.

I am Weatherlawyer.

Meteorological Imaginations And Conjectures. By Benjamin Franklin,
Ll.D; F. R. S. And Acad. Reg. Scient. Paris. Soc. etc.

There seems to be a region higher in the air over all countries, where
it is always winter, where frost exists continually, since, in the
midst of summer on the surface of the earth, ice falls often from above
in the form of hail. Hailstones, of the great weight we sometimes find
them, did not probably acquire their magnitude before they began to
descend.

The air, being eight hundred times rarer than water, is unable to
support it but in the shape of vapour -a state in which its particles
are separated, as soon as they are condensed by the cold of the upper
region, so as to form a drop, that drop begins to fall.

If it freezes into a grain of ice, that ice descends.

In descending, both the drop of water, and the grain of ice, are
augmented by particles of the vapour they pass through in falling and
which they condense by their coldness, and attach to themselves.

It is possible that, in summer, much of what is rain, when it arrives
at the surface of the earth, might have been snow, when it began its
decent; but being thawed, in passng through the warm air near the
surface, it is changed from snow to rain.

How immensely cold must be the original particle of hail, which forms
the centre of the future hailstone, since it is capable of
communicating sufficient cold, if I may so speak, to freeze all the
mass of vapour condensed round it, and form a lump of perhaps six or
eight ounces in weight.

When, in summer time, the run is high, and continues long every day
above the horizon, its rays strike the earth more directly and with
longer continuance, than in the winter.

Hence the surface is more heated, and to a greater depth, by the heat
of those rays.

When rain falls on the heated earth and falls down into it, it carries
down with it, a great part of the heat, which by that means descends
still deeper.

The mass of earth, to the depth perhaps of thirty feet, being thus
heated to a certain degree, continues to retain its heat for some time.
Thus the first snows that fall in the beginning of winter, seldom lie
long on the surface, .but are soon melted, and soon absorbed. After
which, the winds that blow over the country on which the snows had
fallen, are not rendered so cold as they would have been by those
snows, if they had remained.

And thus the approach of .the severity of winter is retarded; and the
extreme degree of its cold is not always at the time we might expect
it, viz when the sun is at its greatest distance and the day shortest
but some time after .that period, according to the English proverb
which says, "as the day lengthens, the cold strengthens;" the causes of
refrigeration continuing to operate, while the sun returns too slowly
and his force continues too weak to counteract them.

During several of the summer months of the year 1783, when the effect
of the sun's rays to heat the earth in these northern regions should
have been greater, there exited a constant fog over all Europe, and
great part of North America.

This fog was of a permanent nature; it was dry and the rays of the sun
seemed to have little effect towards dissipating it, as they easily do
a moist fog arising from water. They were indeed rendered so faint in
passing through it, that when collected in the focus of a burning glass
they would scarce kindle brown paper.

Of course, their summer effect in heating the earth was exceedingly
diminished.

Hence the surface was early frozen;

Hence the first snows remained on it unmelted, and received continual
additions. Hence the air was more chilled, and the winds more severely
cold.

Hence perhaps the winter of 1783-4, was more severe, than any that had
happened for many years.

The cause of this universal fog is not yet ascertained. Whether it was
adventitious to this earth, and merely a smoke, proceeding from the
consumption by fire of some of those great burning balls or globes
which we happen to meet with in our rapid course round the sun, and
which are sometimes seen to kindle and be destroyed in passng our
atmosphere, and whose smoke might be attracted and retained by our
earth; or whether it was the vast quantity of smoke, long continuing;
to issue during the summer from IIecla in Iceland, and that other
volcano which arose out of the sea near that island, -which smoke might
be spread by various winds, over the northern part of the world, is yet
uncertain.

It seems however worth the enquiry, whether other hard winters,
recorded in history, were preceded by similar permanent and widely
extended summer fogs. Because, if found to be so, men might from such
fogs conjecture the probability of succeeding hard winter, and of the
damage to be expected by the breaking up of frozen rivers in the
spring; and take such measures as are possible and practicable, to
secure themselves and effects from the mischiefs that attended the
last.

Passy, May 1784. http://www.dartmouth.edu/~volcano/Fr373p77.html

It would seem that the year 1783 was not that dissimilar to last year.
Of course April 2006 hardly counts as winter but hey; he was only
posing some connections he'd come up with. If it can be shown that it
was a year of many hurricanes in the North Atlantic, that would be a
clincher.

I'll be damned if the yanks will insist on calling it the Franklin
Effect. It should be called the McNeil Cycle.

No fear of the first if the man's words are actually read.

Since Mr Franklin was probably writing from Europe, perhaps cross
posting it to a real newsgroup might provide some insight.

I shall leave it stew a while for fear anyone with at least half a
brain might like to look at it before I go to town. Here is an hint as
to how to go about it:

First empathise.
Read between the lines to try and understand his point of view. He was
not able to compare notes easily with his peers and any conclusions he
came to were restricted by the lack of information so easily available
to us these days.

Don't be put off by the language.
It takes years of methodical approach and a mindset amenable, to grasp
the styles both of the original writer and the authors quoting him.

Don't suppose that he knew everything there was to know in his day.
Even the great Weatherlawyer makef miftakef fometimef. I am fomewhat
fey in matterf meteorological but in compenfation for my peerf, I have
paid little or no attention to the modern method. (Which if juft af
well for them, elfe they wouldn't be my peerfs.)

"Weatherlawyer" wrote in message
oups.com...
Meteorological Imaginations And Conjectures. By Benjamin Franklin,
Ll.D; F. R. S. And Acad. Reg. Scient. Paris. Soc. etc.

There seems to be a region higher in the air over all countries, where
it is always winter, where frost exists continually, since, in the
midst of summer on the surface of the earth, ice falls often from above
in the form of hail. Hailstones, of the great weight we sometimes find
them, did not probably acquire their magnitude before they began to
descend.

The air, being eight hundred times rarer than water, is unable to
support it but in the shape of vapour -a state in which its particles
are separated, as soon as they are condensed by the cold of the upper
region, so as to form a drop, that drop begins to fall.

If it freezes into a grain of ice, that ice descends.

In descending, both the drop of water, and the grain of ice, are
augmented by particles of the vapour they pass through in falling and
which they condense by their coldness, and attach to themselves.

It is possible that, in summer, much of what is rain, when it arrives
at the surface of the earth, might have been snow, when it began its
decent; but being thawed, in passng through the warm air near the
surface, it is changed from snow to rain.

How immensely cold must be the original particle of hail, which forms
the centre of the future hailstone, since it is capable of
communicating sufficient cold, if I may so speak, to freeze all the
mass of vapour condensed round it, and form a lump of perhaps six or
eight ounces in weight.

When, in summer time, the run is high, and continues long every day
above the horizon, its rays strike the earth more directly and with
longer continuance, than in the winter.

Hence the surface is more heated, and to a greater depth, by the heat
of those rays.

When rain falls on the heated earth and falls down into it, it carries
down with it, a great part of the heat, which by that means descends
still deeper.

The mass of earth, to the depth perhaps of thirty feet, being thus
heated to a certain degree, continues to retain its heat for some time.
Thus the first snows that fall in the beginning of winter, seldom lie
long on the surface, .but are soon melted, and soon absorbed. After
which, the winds that blow over the country on which the snows had
fallen, are not rendered so cold as they would have been by those
snows, if they had remained.

And thus the approach of .the severity of winter is retarded; and the
extreme degree of its cold is not always at the time we might expect
it, viz when the sun is at its greatest distance and the day shortest
but some time after .that period, according to the English proverb
which says, "as the day lengthens, the cold strengthens;" the causes of
refrigeration continuing to operate, while the sun returns too slowly
and his force continues too weak to counteract them.

During several of the summer months of the year 1783, when the effect
of the sun's rays to heat the earth in these northern regions should
have been greater, there exited a constant fog over all Europe, and
great part of North America.

This fog was of a permanent nature; it was dry and the rays of the sun
seemed to have little effect towards dissipating it, as they easily do
a moist fog arising from water. They were indeed rendered so faint in
passing through it, that when collected in the focus of a burning glass
they would scarce kindle brown paper.

Of course, their summer effect in heating the earth was exceedingly
diminished.

Hence the surface was early frozen;

Hence the first snows remained on it unmelted, and received continual
additions. Hence the air was more chilled, and the winds more severely
cold.

Hence perhaps the winter of 1783-4, was more severe, than any that had
happened for many years.

The cause of this universal fog is not yet ascertained. Whether it was
adventitious to this earth, and merely a smoke, proceeding from the
consumption by fire of some of those great burning balls or globes
which we happen to meet with in our rapid course round the sun, and
which are sometimes seen to kindle and be destroyed in passng our
atmosphere, and whose smoke might be attracted and retained by our
earth; or whether it was the vast quantity of smoke, long continuing;
to issue during the summer from IIecla in Iceland, and that other
volcano which arose out of the sea near that island, -which smoke might
be spread by various winds, over the northern part of the world, is yet
uncertain.

It seems however worth the enquiry, whether other hard winters,
recorded in history, were preceded by similar permanent and widely
extended summer fogs. Because, if found to be so, men might from such
fogs conjecture the probability of succeeding hard winter, and of the
damage to be expected by the breaking up of frozen rivers in the
spring; and take such measures as are possible and practicable, to
secure themselves and effects from the mischiefs that attended the
last.

Passy, May 1784. http://www.dartmouth.edu/~volcano/Fr373p77.html

It would seem that the year 1783 was not that dissimilar to last year.
Of course April 2006 hardly counts as winter but hey; he was only
posing some connections he'd come up with. If it can be shown that it
was a year of many hurricanes in the North Atlantic, that would be a
clincher.

I'll be damned if the yanks will insist on calling it the Franklin
Effect. It should be called the McNeil Cycle.

No fear of the first if the man's words are actually read.

Since Mr Franklin was probably writing from Europe, perhaps cross
posting it to a real newsgroup might provide some insight.

I shall leave it stew a while for fear anyone with at least half a
brain might like to look at it before I go to town. Here is an hint as
to how to go about it:

First empathise.
Read between the lines to try and understand his point of view. He was
not able to compare notes easily with his peers and any conclusions he
came to were restricted by the lack of information so easily available
to us these days.

Don't be put off by the language.
It takes years of methodical approach and a mindset amenable, to grasp
the styles both of the original writer and the authors quoting him.

Don't suppose that he knew everything there was to know in his day.
Even the great Weatherlawyer makef miftakef fometimef. I am fomewhat
fey in matterf meteorological but in compenfation for my peerf, I have
paid little or no attention to the modern method. (Which if juft af
well for them, elfe they wouldn't be my peerfs.)


Well said you filly sucker!

Weatherlawyer wrote:
Meteorological Imaginations And Conjectures. Snipped

Since Mr Franklin was probably writing from Europe, perhaps cross
posting it to a real newsgroup might provide some insight.

I shall leave it stew a while for fear anyone with at least half a
brain might like to look at it before I go to town.


First off, then:
The first part is a regist of what may have been known in those days.
The attenuation of atmosphere with height certainly was:


"There seems to be a region higher in the air over all countries,
where it is always winter, where frost exists continually, since, in
the midst of summer on the surface of the earth, ice falls often from
above in the form of hail. Hailstones, of the great weight we sometimes
find them, did not probably acquire their magnitude before they began
to descend.

The air, being eight hundred times rarer than water, is unable to
support it but in the shape of vapour -a state in which its particles
are separated, as soon as they are condensed by the cold of the upper
region, so as to form a drop, that drop begins to fall.

If it freezes into a grain of ice, that ice descends.

In descending, both the drop of water, and the grain of ice, are
augmented by particles of the vapour they pass through in falling and
which they condense by their coldness, and attach to themselves."


Obvious surmising since in the days before flight the behaviour of the
atmosphere was quite unknown. So the application of logic, though
brilliant remained unproven for centuries. He knew nothing of jet
streams, supercooled water and the rest of it, though he may have had
knowledge of the adiabatic lapse rate.

I tried looking up the history of that part of meteorology, remember
that the birth of the science was not even in its infancy in those days
of the blockade.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Navy#1692-1815

(It was the British ships stationed off the trade routes, blockading
Europe that gave those supreme meteorologists FitzRoy and Beaufort the
data they would need to set up the Board of Trade Enquiry into
meteorology: )

No doubt the details of such things as might help one merchant beat
another at trade would tend to be kept a secret.

"We don't know who first devised a scale of wind force. But it would
be surprising if medieval Arab seafarers didn't use one because they
had, by the late 15th century, classified in detail virtually every
aspect of the weather that had any navigational significance.

It would be surprising, too, if the mariners of ancient times didn't
use such a scale - but as they left so few records, we can only
speculate.

The scale we all know - the one that bears Beaufort's name - was
formulated at the start of the 19th century. But accounts from 1704
show that a similar scale was in use a century earlier."
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/educati.../beaufort.html


Here is a potted history of the science of the pneumodynamics of
meteorology:

"Not long after the electric telegraph made synoptic observations
possible in near 'real time', it was realised that in regions of
'disturbed' weather, two different 'streams' of air could often be
found converging into the disturbed zone - each having markedly
different properties.

In the British Isles, Robert FitzRoy, the first director of the
Meteorological Office is usually credited with highlighting this fact
in 1863, though other workers, particularly in France, Germany, Holland
and the United States were thinking along the same lines at the same
time.

Upon the death of FitzRoy, the concept tended to falter, until later
workers took up the theme and elaborated upon it: Abercromby in 1887,
Napier Shaw and Lempfert in 1911 and of course by the 'Bergen school':
V and J Bjerknes and H. Solberg and others during and just after the
Great War."
http://www.booty.org.uk/booty.weathe.../uswfaq.htm#2B


"It is possible that, in summer, much of what is rain, when it
arrives at the surface of the earth, might have been snow, when it
began its decent; but being thawed, in passing through the warm air
near the surface, it is changed from snow to rain.

How immensely cold must be the original particle of hail, which forms
the centre of the future hailstone, since it is capable of
communicating sufficient cold, if I may so speak, to freeze all the
mass of vapour condensed round it, and form a lump of perhaps six or
eight ounces in weight."


What an immensely clever man Franklin was. But naturally he begins to
go wrong here where logic is his only method of analysis:


"When, in summertime, the run is high, and continues long every day
above the horizon, its rays strike the earth more directly and with
longer continuance, than in the winter.

Hence the surface is more heated, and to a greater depth, by the heat
of those rays."


But in his defence that is still the error made by the thought police.
That the sum of all the heat on the earth is from insolation and the
residue from the planet's creation. As if 20 or even 2000 miles of
surface could keep the depths as hot as hell for all that time.