August 2006 30-DAY OUTLOOK
800 PM EST Mon. July 31, 2006
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, and various models, along with observed cases from past such
months and also data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.
Sea surface temperatures along the Equator in the east-central Pacific
are currently slightly above normal. Sea surface temperatures in the
eastern Pacific are near normal. There has been a general warming
trend since February. This warming is not expected to have a
significant impact on the global circulation during August.
Teleconnection indices such as NAO, is currently negative and is
forecast to trend towards neutral through the next two weeks. The PNA
is also in a negative phase and is forecast to trend towards positive
during the same period. The 500-HPA circulation is forecast to consist
of a trough in the Gulf of Alaska and south along the West coast. A
subtropical ridge will dominate the southern U.S. with another trough
near Greenland.
Models are in good agreement with the temperature forecast. They
depict above normal temperatures across much of the nation. The
greatest probability of above normal temperatures is in the central and
southern Plains where the probability of occurrence is 60 percent.
Otherwise the probability is 57 percent.
Below normal precipitation is forecast for much of the nation from the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to the West coast. The probability of below
normal precipitation in this region is 57 percent. Above normal
precipitation is forecast along the East coast. The probability of
above normal precipitation in this area is 56 percent. The remainder of
the nation is expected to average near normal with no significant
deviation from normal climatology.
James G. Munley, jr.,
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx/