OCTOBER 2006 30-Day Forecast
430PM EDT Fri. Sept. 29, 2006

Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, and various models, along with observed cases from past such
months and also data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.


Equatorial sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific
have increased during the past month, with the greatest anomaly of
greater than +0.5C observed across much of the Equatorial Pacific where
they were observed greater than 1C from 165E to 165W. Low-level 850-HPA
easterly winds were below normal across most of the Equatorial Pacific.
In addition, the SOI was reported as negative for the past four month.
These oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with developing
warm episode in the tropical Pacific. The NCEP models are in favor of
developing an El Nino during the next few months.

The PNA is currently in a positive phase and is forecast to trend
towards negative the next two weeks. The NAO is in a negative phase and
is forecast to remain negative to near neutral during the same period.
The 500-HPA circulation is forecast to consist of a trough near the
California coast and another trough in the western Atlantic. A ridge
will be across the central part of the nation. A blocking ridge will be
in the North Atlantic. Later in the period, the 500-HPA pattern is
forecast to consist of a trough in the northeast Pacific, a ridge over
northern Alaska and a deepening trough across eastern Canada. The ridge
in the center of the nation should weaken.

Below normal temperatures are forecast for central California northward
into the Northwest. The probability of below normal temperatures in
this region is 57 percent. Above normal temperatures are forecast for
much of the center of the nation and the South. The probability of
above normal temperatures in the center of the nation is 58 percent and
decrease to 56 percent across the South. Below normal temperatures are
forecast for northern New England. The probability of above normal
temperatures in this region is 58 percent. The remainder of the nation
is expected to average near normal with no significant deviation from
normal climatology.

Above normal precipitation is forecast for the Northwest and northern
California. The probability of above normal precipitation in this
region is 55 percent. Below normal precipitation is forecast across the
Plains, the Southwest and the eastern Rockies. The probability of
below normal precipitation in this area is 55 percent. The remainder of
the nation is expected to average near normal with no significant
deviation from normal climatology.

Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx