NOVEMBER 2006 30-Day Forecast
415 PM EDT Tue. Oct. 31, 2006

Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, and various models, along with observed cases from past such
months and also data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical central and eastern Pacific
have increased significantly. Sea anomalies of up to 1.0C were observed
from 1605E eastward to just west of the South American coast. Anomalies
of up to 3C were observed from 170E to 140W and 130W near the South
American coast. The current NCEP model CFS forecast a continued
strengthening trend through March 2007 with anomalies of 5C.

The PNA is currently in a negative phase and is forecast to remain
generally negative through the next two weeks. The NAO is in a negative
phase and is forecast to remain negative to near neutral during the
same period. The 500-HPA circulation is forecast to feature a strong
blocking ridge across the Bering Sea with a trough over Alaska. A broad
trough will cover much of the U.S. Some models such as the GFS are
indicating positive heights over the Great Lakes at the beginning of
the month. Later, the 500-HPA circulation is forecast to change
especially across the West. Heights are forecast to fall across the
West. Heights across eastern North America are forecast to be above
normal in association with positive heights near Hudson Bay.

Above normal temperatures are forecast for Montana, most of Wyoming,
the central and northern Plains and the upper Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys. The probability of above normal temperatures in this region is
57 percent. The probabilities are nor very high with the possible
pattern change forecast in the West and the East. The remainder of the
nation is expected to average near normal with no significant deviation
from normal climatology.

Above normal precipitation is forecast for the Northwest and much of
the Rockies. The probability of above normal precipitation in this
region is 55 percent. Above normal precipitation is also forecast from
the eastern gulf coast northward along the East coast. The probability
of above normal precipitation in this area is 55 percent. The
probabilities are nor very high with the possible pattern change
forecast in the West and the East. The remainder of the nation is
expected to average near normal with no significant deviation from
normal climatology.

Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx