Are their any products that are very good at predicting the overall
thunderstorm/tornado chances for the year 2007?

What I am asking is, are things like a strong/weak El Nino/La Nina
good predictors of severe thunderstorms/tornadoes?

If so, what are those criteria and where can I read some conclusions?

thanks

On Thu, 15 Mar 2007 15:16:03 -0400,
Bob Brown , in
wrote:

+ What I am asking is, are things like a strong/weak El Nino/La Nina
+ good predictors of severe thunderstorms/tornadoes?

Are there influences? yes. Are they "good" predictors? not in the
sense that I think you're seeking - a qualitative number. It would
fall into a "tends toward more intense tornadoes", "tends toward less
intense tornadoes", or "has little measurable effect".

+ If so, what are those criteria and where can I read some conclusions?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications...er/el_nino.htm
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/sls19paper10-1.html
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/elninopage.php
http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/enso.html
[1] http://kccserv1.estb.wku.edu/factshe..._nino_la_nina/

GIYF.

Keep in mind that the effects on tornadic activity tends to be
regional, as [1] concludes:

After comparing the values between each weather phase by using
the T-Testing method, the data sets for El Niño, La Niña, and
normal phases were found to be similar. In fact, the data sets
showed no significant difference among them. Therefore, the
T-Test suggested that the difference among El Niño, La Niña, and
normal year tornado production was not significant. This
suggested that the phases were alike in the production of
tornadoes in Kentucky.

Of course, tornado activity tends to be a regional phenomena, so such
variability isn't a huge surpise.

--
Consulting Minister for Consultants, DNRC
I can please only one person per day. Today is not your day. Tomorrow
isn't looking good, either.
I am BOFH. Resistance is futile. Your network will be assimilated.

"Bob Brown" . a écrit dans le message de news:
...
Are their any products that are very good at predicting the overall
thunderstorm/tornado chances for the year 2007?

What I am asking is, are things like a strong/weak El Nino/La Nina
good predictors of severe thunderstorms/tornadoes?

If so, what are those criteria and where can I read some conclusions?

thanks


there is an outstanding study by C. Woodhouse about influence of "La Nina"
on tornadoes.

--

Lucien COSTE