" . . . climate sensitivity [to 2X CO2] greater than 1.5 °C
has probably the Earth's climate system over the past
420 million years, regardless of temporal scaling."

=-=-=-=-=-=-=
http://news.mongabay.com/2007/0328-co2.html
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal...ture05699.html

Nature 446, 530-532 (29 March 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature05699;
Received 10 October 2006; Accepted 23 February 2007

Climate sensitivity constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past
420 million years

Dana L. Royer1, Robert A. Berner2 & Jeffrey Park2

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Wesleyan University,
Middletown, Connecticut 06459, USA
Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven,
Connecticut 06520, USA
Correspondence to: Dana L. Royer1 Correspondence and requests for
materials should be addressed to D.L.R. (Email: ).

A firm understanding of the relationship between atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentration and temperature is critical for interpreting
past climate change and for predicting future climate change1. A
recent synthesis2 suggests that the increase in global-mean surface
temperature in response to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentration, termed 'climate sensitivity', is between 1.5
and 6.2 °C (5-95 per cent likelihood range), but some evidence is
inconsistent with this range1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Moreover, most estimates of
climate sensitivity are based on records of climate change over the
past few decades to thousands of years, when carbon dioxide
concentrations and global temperatures were similar to or lower than
today1, 6, so such calculations tend to underestimate the magnitude of
large climate-change events7 and may not be applicable to climate
change under warmer conditions in the future. Here we estimate long-
term equilibrium climate sensitivity by modelling carbon dioxide
concentrations over the past 420 million years and comparing our
calculations with a proxy record. Our estimates are broadly consistent
with estimates based on short-term climate records, and indicate that
a weak radiative forcing by carbon dioxide is highly unlikely on multi-
million-year timescales. We conclude that been a robust feature of a
climate sensitivity greater than 1.5 °C has probably the Earth's
climate system over the past 420 million years, regardless of temporal
scaling.

CO2 is caused by the climate, not the other way around!

WDA

end

Roger Coppock wrote:
" . . . climate sensitivity [to 2X CO2] greater than 1.5 °C
has probably the Earth's climate system over the past
420 million years, regardless of temporal scaling."

=-=-=-=-=-=-=
http://news.mongabay.com/2007/0328-co2.html
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal...ture05699.html

Nature 446, 530-532 (29 March 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature05699;
Received 10 October 2006; Accepted 23 February 2007

Climate sensitivity constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past
420 million years

Dana L. Royer1, Robert A. Berner2 & Jeffrey Park2

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Wesleyan University,
Middletown, Connecticut 06459, USA
Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven,
Connecticut 06520, USA
Correspondence to: Dana L. Royer1 Correspondence and requests for
materials should be addressed to D.L.R. (Email: ).

A firm understanding of the relationship between atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentration and temperature is critical for interpreting
past climate change and for predicting future climate change1. A
recent synthesis2 suggests that the increase in global-mean surface
temperature in response to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentration, termed 'climate sensitivity', is between 1.5
and 6.2 °C (5-95 per cent likelihood range), but some evidence is
inconsistent with this range1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Moreover, most estimates of
climate sensitivity are based on records of climate change over the
past few decades to thousands of years, when carbon dioxide
concentrations and global temperatures were similar to or lower than
today1, 6, so such calculations tend to underestimate the magnitude of
large climate-change events7 and may not be applicable to climate
change under warmer conditions in the future. Here we estimate long-
term equilibrium climate sensitivity by modelling carbon dioxide
concentrations over the past 420 million years and comparing our
calculations with a proxy record. Our estimates are broadly consistent
with estimates based on short-term climate records, and indicate that
a weak radiative forcing by carbon dioxide is highly unlikely on multi-
million-year timescales. We conclude that been a robust feature of a
climate sensitivity greater than 1.5 °C has probably the Earth's
climate system over the past 420 million years, regardless of temporal
scaling.

There seems to be a missing word here, after probably.

influenced, controlled? Ah ... 'been a robust feature of'

--
Get A Free Orbiter Space Flight Simulator :
http://orbit.medphys.ucl.ac.uk/orbit.html

W. D. Allen wrote:

start

CO2 is caused by the climate, not the other way around!

'crankiness' has been a robust feature of your usenet postings for the
last 4.2 years at least. I'd have to check the proxy record to extend
the phenomenon any farther back than that.

WDA

end


--
Get A Free Orbiter Space Flight Simulator :
http://orbit.medphys.ucl.ac.uk/orbit.html

On Mar 28, 3:27 pm, "W. D. Allen" wrote:
CO2 is caused by the climate, not the other way around!

WDA

end

Simple pap from a simpleton.

(1) What is causing the warming?
(2) Where does all the human produced CO2 go?
(3) Why aren't the oceans losing CO2?

On Mar 28, 2:50 pm, Rodney Blackall
wrote:
In article .com,
Roger Coppock wrote:

" . . . climate sensitivity [to 2X CO2] greater than 1.5 °C
has probably the Earth's climate system over the past
420 million years, regardless of temporal scaling."

The trouble with going back so far into the past is that the geography of
Earth's surface has changed an awful lot in that time. If you disregard the
colossal oceanographic changes caused by the linking of the Pacific and
Atlantic; Arctic and Pacific and Arctic and Atlantic, let alone the building
of the great mountain ranges you could get some very unreal answers.

Good point, Rodney, a very good point.
Not only has the geography changed,
but the rotation period of the Earth,
and Solar irradiance change on very
long half a billion timescales like
this as well. How far back do you need
to go to show the CO2 to surface
temperature link? Do you need
historical data at all? Aren't the
direct measurements of CO2 forcing
enough?

In article ,
Rodney Blackall wrote:
In article .com,
Roger Coppock wrote:

" . . . climate sensitivity [to 2X CO2] greater than 1.5 °C
has probably the Earth's climate system over the past
420 million years, regardless of temporal scaling."

The trouble with going back so far into the past is that the geography of
Earth's surface has changed an awful lot in that time. If you disregard the
colossal oceanographic changes caused by the linking of the Pacific and
Atlantic; Arctic and Pacific and Arctic and Atlantic, let alone the building
of the great mountain ranges you could get some very unreal answers.

As always, it depends on what question you're trying to answer.
They're not answering the question of 'what is the precise sensitivity
of the current climate system to 2xCO2?' -- agreed. The excerpt doesn't
suggest to me that they thought they were either.

What they do present, assuming everything holds up, is that
over the last 420 My, over all the different continental arrangements,
all the different ocean circulations, all the mountain arrangements,
the assortments of glacial arrangements, varying CO2 levels (part of
that period includes lower than present CO2 levels, most is higher
to much higher than present), ... that it was seldom the case that
the sensitivity to 2xCO2 was lower than 1.5 C.

To the extent that some models for the present call for as little as
1.5 C for 2xCO2, this work suggests that we should spend some time
understanding what exactly it is that is special about the present
(vs. the 420 My) to make for such a low sensitivity. If it's, say,
the presence of an ice cap on Greenland, we should be much more concerned
than if it is, say, the presence of western boundary currents (Gulf
Stream, Kuroshio, ...).


--
Robert Grumbine http://www.radix.net/~bobg/ Science faqs and amateur activities notes and links.
Sagredo (Galileo Galilei) "You present these recondite matters with too much
evidence and ease; this great facility makes them less appreciated than they
would be had they been presented in a more abstruse manner." Two New Sciences

On Mar 28, 3:00 pm, "Lloyd" wrote:
On Mar 28, 3:27 pm, "W. D. Allen" wrote:

CO2 is caused by the climate, not the other way around!

WDA

end

Simple pap from a simpleton.

W.D. Allen is right- here's the link

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/taylo...uehle00grl.pdf

CO2 has lagged temperature by about 900 years, based on figures from
Taylor Dome, Antarctica- A. McIntire

On Mar 29, 7:06 pm, wrote:
On Mar 28, 3:00 pm, "Lloyd" wrote:

On Mar 28, 3:27 pm, "W. D. Allen" wrote:

CO2 is caused by the climate, not the other way around!

WDA

end

Simple pap from a simpleton.

W.D. Allen is right- here's the link

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/taylo...uehle00grl.pdf

CO2 has lagged temperature by about 900 years, based on figures from
Taylor Dome, Antarctica- A. McIntire

The deceitful and utterly dishonest Alan McInturd fouls the newsgroup
with his **** again.

#1. The document referred to is 20,000 to 60,000 years ago inside an
deep ice age. ONE ICE AGE only out of over 20 known. One datum cannot
be extended to any trend.

#2. ANY single piece presented as evidence MUST address all the
evidence before a hypothesis/theory can be drawn out of it. In this
case what's missing is present human industrialization and carbon-
burning practices. Since that is missing from this evidence, it is
likely that this evidence offers no help in determining the effects of
human pollution behaviors. It can tell us what things used to be like,
not what they are like now, and not where they are going to be later.

#3. That CO2 background has varied according to biomass activity on
Earth is not in doubt, and is abundantly confirmed by this evidence
and others. Biomass lags temperature differences, and CO2 sequestered
in waters lags temperature increases. For over 50,000,000 years there
is no credible evidence that the global CO2 was higher than 300 ppmv,
and usually lower. The systems responses to low levels of CO2
fluctuating within their natural boundaries is not informative about
abnormal amounts of CO2 levels. Trying to force evidence to say
something it is mute about is crassly dishonest.

#4 ALL of the extant evidence must be explained by any theory. The
1997-1998 peak of CO2 and the consequent global bleaching of 87% of
all corals in the world's seas, with 40% death from those, is powerful
evidence which may not be discarded in seeking alternate explanations
of ice core data. The CO2 peak was followed within 6 months by coral
bleaching and record hot temperatures across the globe -- there was no
900 year lag, no 800 year lag, not even a 1-year lag -- it was direct
and immediate and not just one single ice core, but observations by
the whole world's peoples. Direct, not proxy, evidence of CO2 effects
was experienced by scuba divers, by fishermen, by news reporters, not
just paleo-climatographers and glaciologists. You cannot sweep this
evidence off the table to introduce a new theory at this late date.

Ancient history is a specialty of interest to few. Current events is
interesting to almost all. The exact workings of the naturally
occurring 20-times-over for 5 million years of the Milankovitch Cycles
is not going to be terribly helpful in determing what 6.6 billion
industrialized human beings are doing to the Earth's Climate. Pressing
this inappropriate evidence off in a fraudulent way is something
pioneered by the TASSC organized crime ring, including Patrick Micaels
and Fred Singer, thus giving you an appearance as being a henchman in
their crime operations. Therefore, henceforth, your patrons will be
mocked and ridiculed every time you appear to let you share their
infamy and shame.

This is FRED SINGER, who pushes your frauds...

FRED SINGER'S SEPPtic Tank
Stink tank has accumulated nice nearly $1 million retirement fund for
Singer any time the compliant board decides to bestow it on him. Has
interesting portfolio of stocks donated over the years, looking at
their IRS 990 report forms.

Besides listing three dead guys on it's board of science advisors
(presumably whom have advised by seance for 3, 5 and 7 years now), the
industry puppets on board are interesting.

Board of Science Advisors

* Bruce N. Ames (1928- ) Known tobacco shill on the payroll of
British-American Tobacco. http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=95
Participated in corrupt operation of ICSE in Paris, 2003. George C.
Marshall Inst., CFACT, Reason Foundation, SEPP. Signed Liezieg,
Heidelberg Appeal, OISM petition. TASSC (Philip Morris Tobacco,
convicted racketeer, front group for science crimes) Science Advisor.

* C.J.F. Böttcher (1915- ) Heidelberg Appeal scam, HAN, ESEF.
Funded by Shell Oil and two Dutch auto front groups, RJ Reyonlds
Tobacco.. Signed Liepzig. Founding member of The Club of Rome often
ridiculed by rightwingers for alarmism.

* Tor Ragnar Gerholm (1925- ) Moonie like Singer, ESEF fraud
operator, signed Leipzig Declaration.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php...onment_F orum

* Michael J. Higatsberger (1924-2004) Moonie like Singer. Leipzig
Declaration.

* Henry R. Linden (1920s- ) first president of the Gas Research
Institute, received Exxon-sponsored Storch award as far back as 1967.
Leipzig Declaration.

* Sir William Mitchell (1925-2002) Involved in ESEF fraud
organization. Leipzig Declaration.

* William A. Nierenberg (1919-2000) was a member of the Board of
Directors of the George C. Marshall Institute run by tobacco racketeer
Fred Seitz, board member of SEPP. Leipzig Declaration.

* Michel Salomon (1927- ) Corrupt head of ICSE science fraud
operation founded in Paris in 1993, particpant in several Singer fraud
operations. ESEF crook.

* Chauncey Starr (1912- ) founded the 'Electric Power Research
Institute', researching coal power, signed the Leipzig Declaration on
Global Climate Change "As independent scientists concerned with
atmospheric and climate problems ..."


SEPPtic Tank's Board of Directors:

Board of Directors

* S. Fred Singer, (1924- ) President. In a September 24, 1993,
sworn affidavit, Dr. Singer admitted to doing climate change research
on behalf of oil companies, such as Exxon, Texaco, Arco, Shell and the
American Gas Association. TASSC (Philip Morris Tobacco front group
for science crimes) Science Advisor.
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=95

* Frederick Seitz,(1911- ) Chairman. Tobacco shill once had his
likeness used for an RJ Reynold Tobacco ad campaign "9 out of 10
Doctors prefer Camels". Received over $660,000 (on the books, under
the table?) from RJR convicted racketeers over 16 years. Headed George
C. Marshall crime organization. Participated in multiple Singer frauds
since 1993. TASSC (Philip Morris Tobacco front group for science
crimes) Science Advisor.
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=367

* Charles Gelman, (1931- ) Super kook, fined $1 million dollars,
plus $4 million clean-up for 1,4-dioxane pollution from his factory.
Sued and attacked environmentalist who made him clean up his mess.

* David L. Hill (1919- ) (officially replaced in 2000 by Mark M.
Brandsdorfer [14] although the 990 form for 1998 already mentioned
Mark Brandsdorfer instead of Mr. Hill) This Mark M. Brandsdorfer,
attorney at law for an organized crime operation:
http://www.desmogblog.com/sites/beta...r%20threat.pdf


Sugardaddies to Singer-Seitz-Ames include the Killer Koch Brother of
Koch Industries:
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=150
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=159
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=161
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=162
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=93
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=112
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=114

Documents from the Dossier on Career Criminal Organized Crime
Fraudster S. FRED SINGER
http://groups.google.com/group/alt.e...2421224e3abb1d

MORE Documents from the Dossier on Career Criminal Organized Crime
Fraudster S. FRED SINGER
http://groups.google.com/group/alt.e...75a042a3ac7de6

AND MORE Documents from the Dossier on Career Criminal Organized Crime
Fraudster S. FRED SINGER
http://groups.google.com/group/alt.e...c212343615d03f

ANOTHER Career Criminal Organized Crime Fraud of S. FRED SINGER in
2001
http://groups.google.com/group/alt.e...e71a1fba85f0ec





What the system responses are in a 380 ppmv CO2 atmosphere are
directly known to be fundamentally different than the system responses
during an ice-covered globe with 200 ppmv cO2 atmosphere.

On Mar 29, 11:06 pm, wrote:
On Mar 28, 3:00 pm, "Lloyd" wrote:

On Mar 28, 3:27 pm, "W. D. Allen" wrote:

CO2 is caused by the climate, not the other way around!

WDA

end

Simple pap from a simpleton.

W.D. Allen is right- here's the link

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/taylo...uehle00grl.pdf

CO2 has lagged temperature by about 900 years, based on figures from
Taylor Dome, Antarctica- A. McIntire

It's not doing so now. Look at graphs for the 20th century, you moron!