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#1
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This below normal temps point only to one thing:Global Warming
We may already be entering a mini-ice age and not know it. perhaps the computer models missed a variable or 100? The NWS is LUCKY to get a 3-day forecast correct for a geographical area the size of a small city. Why am I so worried about people claiming a 3C rise in "global" temps from some of the same computer modeling? Computer models are great when you have fewer than a dozen variables, with half being very static. Make the model try to predict something with tens-of-thousands of variables, none having staticity, and your error rate for a 100 year period goes to nearly 100%. Political polls even have a margin of error and those only have 2 variables, maybe 3 if you consider that people will LIE to the pollster. |
#2
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Bob Brown pisze:
This below normal temps point only to one thing:Global Warming We may already be entering a mini-ice age and not know it. perhaps the computer models missed a variable or 100? The NWS is LUCKY to get a 3-day forecast correct for a geographical area the size of a small city. Why am I so worried about people claiming a 3C rise in "global" temps from some of the same computer modeling? Computer models are great when you have fewer than a dozen variables, with half being very static. Make the model try to predict something with tens-of-thousands of variables, none having staticity, and your error rate for a 100 year period goes to nearly 100%. Political polls even have a margin of error and those only have 2 variables, maybe 3 if you consider that people will LIE to the pollster. In Central Europe April 2006 - March 2007 period was warmest on record. 1) July 2006 - warmest on record (6C above normal) 2) August 2006 - cool, in some regions wettest on record 3) September 2006 - almost warmest on record 4) October 2006 - very warm 3) November 2006 - second warmest 4) Autumn 2006 - warmest on record (3C above normal) 5) December 2006 - warmest on record (4-5C above normal) 6) July - December 2006 - warmest on record 7) January 2007 - warmest on record (5-7C above normal) 8) February 2007 - very warm in western Poland, cool in east. 9) Winter 2006/7 - warmest on record 10) March 2007 - very warm. In eastern Poland warmest on record. 11) April 2007 - very warm. |
#3
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On Thu, 19 Apr 2007 18:35:12 +0200, PiotrD wrote:
Bob Brown pisze: This below normal temps point only to one thing:Global Warming We may already be entering a mini-ice age and not know it. perhaps the computer models missed a variable or 100? The NWS is LUCKY to get a 3-day forecast correct for a geographical area the size of a small city. Why am I so worried about people claiming a 3C rise in "global" temps from some of the same computer modeling? Computer models are great when you have fewer than a dozen variables, with half being very static. Make the model try to predict something with tens-of-thousands of variables, none having staticity, and your error rate for a 100 year period goes to nearly 100%. Political polls even have a margin of error and those only have 2 variables, maybe 3 if you consider that people will LIE to the pollster. In Central Europe April 2006 - March 2007 period was warmest on record. 1) July 2006 - warmest on record (6C above normal) 2) August 2006 - cool, in some regions wettest on record 3) September 2006 - almost warmest on record 4) October 2006 - very warm 3) November 2006 - second warmest 4) Autumn 2006 - warmest on record (3C above normal) 5) December 2006 - warmest on record (4-5C above normal) 6) July - December 2006 - warmest on record 7) January 2007 - warmest on record (5-7C above normal) 8) February 2007 - very warm in western Poland, cool in east. 9) Winter 2006/7 - warmest on record 10) March 2007 - very warm. In eastern Poland warmest on record. 11) April 2007 - very warm. I could likely find a "short period" of time anywhere on the globe and declare it the lowest/highest on record. In a 5 billion year record it means nothing. Do you remember the first full word you spoke as a child? Now tell me how that ONE WORD at that ONE MOMENT compares to the remainder of your life? How about a FART? Your first ever fart, how does it stack up against say a man living to be 80 yrs old? A fart lasts under 2.5 seconds compared to 80 years of life. 1 year of temp records compared to 5 billion years? |
#4
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In article , Bob Brown . wrote:
On Thu, 19 Apr 2007 18:35:12 +0200, PiotrD wrote: Bob Brown pisze: This below normal temps point only to one thing:Global Warming We may already be entering a mini-ice age and not know it. perhaps the computer models missed a variable or 100? The NWS is LUCKY to get a 3-day forecast correct for a geographical area the size of a small city. Why am I so worried about people claiming a 3C rise in "global" temps from some of the same computer modeling? Computer models are great when you have fewer than a dozen variables, with half being very static. Make the model try to predict something with tens-of-thousands of variables, none having staticity, and your error rate for a 100 year period goes to nearly 100%. Political polls even have a margin of error and those only have 2 variables, maybe 3 if you consider that people will LIE to the pollster. In Central Europe April 2006 - March 2007 period was warmest on record. 1) July 2006 - warmest on record (6C above normal) 2) August 2006 - cool, in some regions wettest on record 3) September 2006 - almost warmest on record 4) October 2006 - very warm 3) November 2006 - second warmest 4) Autumn 2006 - warmest on record (3C above normal) 5) December 2006 - warmest on record (4-5C above normal) 6) July - December 2006 - warmest on record 7) January 2007 - warmest on record (5-7C above normal) 8) February 2007 - very warm in western Poland, cool in east. 9) Winter 2006/7 - warmest on record 10) March 2007 - very warm. In eastern Poland warmest on record. 11) April 2007 - very warm. I could likely find a "short period" of time anywhere on the globe and declare it the lowest/highest on record. In a 5 billion year record it means nothing. Do you remember the first full word you spoke as a child? Now tell me how that ONE WORD at that ONE MOMENT compares to the remainder of your life? How about a FART? Your first ever fart, how does it stack up against say a man living to be 80 yrs old? A fart lasts under 2.5 seconds compared to 80 years of life. 1 year of temp records compared to 5 billion years? In the long run, we are all dead. Then again, you also don't believe that the earth is 5 billion years old or anywhere close, so drop the pretense. In any case, it was you who started talking of current climate as meaning anything -- your comment about entering a mini ice age. From the perspective of billions of years (which, actually, you don't hold anyhow) your entire life span is trivially short -- you are but a fart, in your example. Everything that happens on and to the earth during that time is equally trivial -- to you. It happens that I think that humans are important, unlike you, so time spans of a few years are also important. 80 years of outright ice age, or baking, are nothing to the planet, but quite important to people. As we look on a human time scale, climate is changing and has changed significantly. -- Robert Grumbine http://www.radix.net/~bobg/ Science faqs and amateur activities notes and links. Sagredo (Galileo Galilei) "You present these recondite matters with too much evidence and ease; this great facility makes them less appreciated than they would be had they been presented in a more abstruse manner." Two New Sciences |
#5
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#7
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On Sat, 21 Apr 2007 11:30:25 -0000, (Robert Grumbine)
wrote: In article , Bob Brown . wrote: On Fri, 20 Apr 2007 15:32:53 -0000, (Robert Grumbine) wrote: In article , Bob Brown . wrote: On Thu, 19 Apr 2007 18:35:12 +0200, PiotrD wrote: Bob Brown pisze: This below normal temps point only to one thing:Global Warming We may already be entering a mini-ice age and not know it. perhaps the computer models missed a variable or 100? The NWS is LUCKY to get a 3-day forecast correct for a geographical area the size of a small city. Why am I so worried about people claiming a 3C rise in "global" temps from some of the same computer modeling? Computer models are great when you have fewer than a dozen variables, with half being very static. Make the model try to predict something with tens-of-thousands of variables, none having staticity, and your error rate for a 100 year period goes to nearly 100%. Political polls even have a margin of error and those only have 2 variables, maybe 3 if you consider that people will LIE to the pollster. In Central Europe April 2006 - March 2007 period was warmest on record. 1) July 2006 - warmest on record (6C above normal) 2) August 2006 - cool, in some regions wettest on record 3) September 2006 - almost warmest on record 4) October 2006 - very warm 3) November 2006 - second warmest 4) Autumn 2006 - warmest on record (3C above normal) 5) December 2006 - warmest on record (4-5C above normal) 6) July - December 2006 - warmest on record 7) January 2007 - warmest on record (5-7C above normal) 8) February 2007 - very warm in western Poland, cool in east. 9) Winter 2006/7 - warmest on record 10) March 2007 - very warm. In eastern Poland warmest on record. 11) April 2007 - very warm. I could likely find a "short period" of time anywhere on the globe and declare it the lowest/highest on record. In a 5 billion year record it means nothing. Do you remember the first full word you spoke as a child? Now tell me how that ONE WORD at that ONE MOMENT compares to the remainder of your life? How about a FART? Your first ever fart, how does it stack up against say a man living to be 80 yrs old? A fart lasts under 2.5 seconds compared to 80 years of life. 1 year of temp records compared to 5 billion years? In the long run, we are all dead. Then again, you also don't believe that the earth is 5 billion years old or anywhere close, so drop the pretense. Pretense? I've already explained that I do indeed believe the Earth to be 4 to 5 Billion years old due to what I have read in science articles. I believe those articles to be true. Well, no. Your claim then was that you believed the earth to be 1 billion years old, with uncertainty of 100 million years, versus what the science had (has) to say of 4.55 billion years, and 10 million years, respectively. You never answered why your figures were different than science's. The mere fact that I believe in God doesn't distort my view of science. Your theology is yours and of no interest for the science. I notice that you entirely ignored, and deleted without response, the matter of what time scales are of concern for talking about climate. Since you are not willing to believe me and seem to be willing to dismiss my questions outright, I don't see how you and I could have a question and answer discussion? I have learned some things in this newsgroup, and I appreciate the time people have took to explain things to me. Believe me their is not some game I am trying to play. My belief in God shouldn't exclude me from being taken seriously especially when I am trying to ask questions that are meaningful with regard to the topic. thanks, and I hope you change your mind about me. If you'd answered the part you instead deleted unmarked, it might have given a reason to think you're not playing a game or otherwise uninterested in the science. That, instead, you lie about your earlier answer about the age of the earth, try to wrap yourself in a mantle of being persecuted for your religion, and delete the part of the post on the scientific part that _you_ raised ... well, not favorable. If you want to be taken as interested in the science, you have to respond to the science. It wouldn't hurt, either, if you didn't make fart jokes about the people. I deleted the rest of the post and only addressed the "pretense" part because it seemed that you have a built-in bias toward me. I said 1 billion yrs once I'm sure but this was until someone sent me to the proper places to understand it was somewhere "near" 5 billion years. I understand that carl sagan toward the end of his life expressed a belief in a "higher power" but didn't drop either science or religion at the expense of each other. If I cannot be accepted here as being a believer in both science and God then what am I suppose to think? Do I go along with most people who believe in God and dismiss everything science has proven? If you want to discuss something without making the "pretense" comments I am all for it. I will agree to not give you lessons or correct you on phrases in the Bible if you can look past my not knowing the exact age of a planet. As for the 6,000 yr old Earth belief. I believe the Bible "covered" 6,000 years but did not exclude all the "other" years Science has proved to all of us. I think YOU are intelligent on these subjects or I wouldn't bother asking you questions like I have in the past. I'm willing to look past the pretensed "pretense" now and continue on with a discussion on Global Warming if you'd like. |
#8
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Any time you wish to stop playing religious martyr and talk
science, just go ahead and do it. In the mean time, you're making religious judgements (presuming that I'm an atheist) based on the fact that I'm trying to talk about science in a science group. At best, you're hypocritical. The age of the earth is not a religious question (at least, not according to most relgious practices). I asked about it at a time when you were denying that there had been ice ages. Your initial response was that scientists think 5-6 billion years, so I asked what _you_ thought -- which was 1 billion years give or take 100 million. That gives the lie to your statement below about believing the science, once you discovered what it was. You never gave any reason for the 1 billion as opposed to the 4.55 that science takes, though I did ask. In the thread at hand, you respond to data on climate, in a thread on climate, with fart jokes. If you want to talk science, do so. If not, good bye. In article , Bob Brown . wrote: On Sat, 21 Apr 2007 11:30:25 -0000, (Robert Grumbine) wrote: In article , Bob Brown . wrote: On Fri, 20 Apr 2007 15:32:53 -0000, (Robert Grumbine) wrote: In article , Bob Brown . wrote: On Thu, 19 Apr 2007 18:35:12 +0200, PiotrD wrote: [minitrim] In Central Europe April 2006 - March 2007 period was warmest on record. 1) July 2006 - warmest on record (6C above normal) 2) August 2006 - cool, in some regions wettest on record 3) September 2006 - almost warmest on record 4) October 2006 - very warm 3) November 2006 - second warmest 4) Autumn 2006 - warmest on record (3C above normal) 5) December 2006 - warmest on record (4-5C above normal) 6) July - December 2006 - warmest on record 7) January 2007 - warmest on record (5-7C above normal) 8) February 2007 - very warm in western Poland, cool in east. 9) Winter 2006/7 - warmest on record 10) March 2007 - very warm. In eastern Poland warmest on record. 11) April 2007 - very warm. I could likely find a "short period" of time anywhere on the globe and declare it the lowest/highest on record. In a 5 billion year record it means nothing. Do you remember the first full word you spoke as a child? Now tell me how that ONE WORD at that ONE MOMENT compares to the remainder of your life? How about a FART? Your first ever fart, how does it stack up against say a man living to be 80 yrs old? A fart lasts under 2.5 seconds compared to 80 years of life. 1 year of temp records compared to 5 billion years? In the long run, we are all dead. Then again, you also don't believe that the earth is 5 billion years old or anywhere close, so drop the pretense. Pretense? I've already explained that I do indeed believe the Earth to be 4 to 5 Billion years old due to what I have read in science articles. I believe those articles to be true. Well, no. Your claim then was that you believed the earth to be 1 billion years old, with uncertainty of 100 million years, versus what the science had (has) to say of 4.55 billion years, and 10 million years, respectively. You never answered why your figures were different than science's. The mere fact that I believe in God doesn't distort my view of science. Your theology is yours and of no interest for the science. I notice that you entirely ignored, and deleted without response, the matter of what time scales are of concern for talking about climate. Since you are not willing to believe me and seem to be willing to dismiss my questions outright, I don't see how you and I could have a question and answer discussion? I have learned some things in this newsgroup, and I appreciate the time people have took to explain things to me. Believe me their is not some game I am trying to play. My belief in God shouldn't exclude me from being taken seriously especially when I am trying to ask questions that are meaningful with regard to the topic. thanks, and I hope you change your mind about me. If you'd answered the part you instead deleted unmarked, it might have given a reason to think you're not playing a game or otherwise uninterested in the science. That, instead, you lie about your earlier answer about the age of the earth, try to wrap yourself in a mantle of being persecuted for your religion, and delete the part of the post on the scientific part that _you_ raised ... well, not favorable. If you want to be taken as interested in the science, you have to respond to the science. It wouldn't hurt, either, if you didn't make fart jokes about the people. I deleted the rest of the post and only addressed the "pretense" part because it seemed that you have a built-in bias toward me. I said 1 billion yrs once I'm sure but this was until someone sent me to the proper places to understand it was somewhere "near" 5 billion years. I understand that carl sagan toward the end of his life expressed a belief in a "higher power" but didn't drop either science or religion at the expense of each other. If I cannot be accepted here as being a believer in both science and God then what am I suppose to think? Do I go along with most people who believe in God and dismiss everything science has proven? If you want to discuss something without making the "pretense" comments I am all for it. I will agree to not give you lessons or correct you on phrases in the Bible if you can look past my not knowing the exact age of a planet. As for the 6,000 yr old Earth belief. I believe the Bible "covered" 6,000 years but did not exclude all the "other" years Science has proved to all of us. I think YOU are intelligent on these subjects or I wouldn't bother asking you questions like I have in the past. I'm willing to look past the pretensed "pretense" now and continue on with a discussion on Global Warming if you'd like. -- Robert Grumbine http://www.radix.net/~bobg/ Science faqs and amateur activities notes and links. Sagredo (Galileo Galilei) "You present these recondite matters with too much evidence and ease; this great facility makes them less appreciated than they would be had they been presented in a more abstruse manner." Two New Sciences |
#9
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Please go look up the word PRETENSE in a dictionary.
You don't see any reason why that would cause me to pause and wonder if anything that followed was sincere? I tried, I tried as hard as I could to stick to science. What you did was keep bringing up something I said in the past and just keep on and on and on reminding me of it. You wouldn't stop. You dangle a nugget from a previous post that I said and sprinkle it into each following reply. Did you think I wasn't going to notice? It's like you wrote a POEM, every other line was sprinkled with sarcasm. The answer to your question is very verbose But religion is just a hoax I'll answer you soon But then you're a bible loon Like that. Dude, I know that you probably think you are the smartest person in the world. I KNOW you think you're superior to me at least. You keep saying crap about "I'll talk science but drop the religion." WTF does that even mean? I didn't MENTION religion in my question. If you want to have some give and take on SCIENCE the by golly I am right here, waiting and willing to drop the religion that I don't recall requiring you to talk about. Let's get on with this, If I can admit I may have been a little wrong in my approach then I would think you could be man enough to forget it and continue on. I'll know your answer if you reply. Good day. On Mon, 23 Apr 2007 13:54:37 -0000, (Robert Grumbine) wrote: Any time you wish to stop playing religious martyr and talk science, just go ahead and do it. In the mean time, you're making religious judgements (presuming that I'm an atheist) based on the fact that I'm trying to talk about science in a science group. At best, you're hypocritical. The age of the earth is not a religious question (at least, not according to most relgious practices). I asked about it at a time when you were denying that there had been ice ages. Your initial response was that scientists think 5-6 billion years, so I asked what _you_ thought -- which was 1 billion years give or take 100 million. That gives the lie to your statement below about believing the science, once you discovered what it was. You never gave any reason for the 1 billion as opposed to the 4.55 that science takes, though I did ask. In the thread at hand, you respond to data on climate, in a thread on climate, with fart jokes. If you want to talk science, do so. If not, good bye. In article , Bob Brown . wrote: On Sat, 21 Apr 2007 11:30:25 -0000, (Robert Grumbine) wrote: In article , Bob Brown . wrote: On Fri, 20 Apr 2007 15:32:53 -0000, (Robert Grumbine) wrote: In article , Bob Brown . wrote: On Thu, 19 Apr 2007 18:35:12 +0200, PiotrD wrote: [minitrim] In Central Europe April 2006 - March 2007 period was warmest on record. 1) July 2006 - warmest on record (6C above normal) 2) August 2006 - cool, in some regions wettest on record 3) September 2006 - almost warmest on record 4) October 2006 - very warm 3) November 2006 - second warmest 4) Autumn 2006 - warmest on record (3C above normal) 5) December 2006 - warmest on record (4-5C above normal) 6) July - December 2006 - warmest on record 7) January 2007 - warmest on record (5-7C above normal) 8) February 2007 - very warm in western Poland, cool in east. 9) Winter 2006/7 - warmest on record 10) March 2007 - very warm. In eastern Poland warmest on record. 11) April 2007 - very warm. I could likely find a "short period" of time anywhere on the globe and declare it the lowest/highest on record. In a 5 billion year record it means nothing. Do you remember the first full word you spoke as a child? Now tell me how that ONE WORD at that ONE MOMENT compares to the remainder of your life? How about a FART? Your first ever fart, how does it stack up against say a man living to be 80 yrs old? A fart lasts under 2.5 seconds compared to 80 years of life. 1 year of temp records compared to 5 billion years? In the long run, we are all dead. Then again, you also don't believe that the earth is 5 billion years old or anywhere close, so drop the pretense. Pretense? I've already explained that I do indeed believe the Earth to be 4 to 5 Billion years old due to what I have read in science articles. I believe those articles to be true. Well, no. Your claim then was that you believed the earth to be 1 billion years old, with uncertainty of 100 million years, versus what the science had (has) to say of 4.55 billion years, and 10 million years, respectively. You never answered why your figures were different than science's. The mere fact that I believe in God doesn't distort my view of science. Your theology is yours and of no interest for the science. I notice that you entirely ignored, and deleted without response, the matter of what time scales are of concern for talking about climate. Since you are not willing to believe me and seem to be willing to dismiss my questions outright, I don't see how you and I could have a question and answer discussion? I have learned some things in this newsgroup, and I appreciate the time people have took to explain things to me. Believe me their is not some game I am trying to play. My belief in God shouldn't exclude me from being taken seriously especially when I am trying to ask questions that are meaningful with regard to the topic. thanks, and I hope you change your mind about me. If you'd answered the part you instead deleted unmarked, it might have given a reason to think you're not playing a game or otherwise uninterested in the science. That, instead, you lie about your earlier answer about the age of the earth, try to wrap yourself in a mantle of being persecuted for your religion, and delete the part of the post on the scientific part that _you_ raised ... well, not favorable. If you want to be taken as interested in the science, you have to respond to the science. It wouldn't hurt, either, if you didn't make fart jokes about the people. I deleted the rest of the post and only addressed the "pretense" part because it seemed that you have a built-in bias toward me. I said 1 billion yrs once I'm sure but this was until someone sent me to the proper places to understand it was somewhere "near" 5 billion years. I understand that carl sagan toward the end of his life expressed a belief in a "higher power" but didn't drop either science or religion at the expense of each other. If I cannot be accepted here as being a believer in both science and God then what am I suppose to think? Do I go along with most people who believe in God and dismiss everything science has proven? If you want to discuss something without making the "pretense" comments I am all for it. I will agree to not give you lessons or correct you on phrases in the Bible if you can look past my not knowing the exact age of a planet. As for the 6,000 yr old Earth belief. I believe the Bible "covered" 6,000 years but did not exclude all the "other" years Science has proved to all of us. I think YOU are intelligent on these subjects or I wouldn't bother asking you questions like I have in the past. I'm willing to look past the pretensed "pretense" now and continue on with a discussion on Global Warming if you'd like. |
#10
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Bob Brown pisze:
I could likely find a "short period" of time anywhere on the globe and You could, and you did it... |
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