Roger Coppock wrote:

A projected mean increase of 70% human mortality
over 1990 levels by mid-century.
=-=-=-=-=
American Journal of Public Health,
10.2105/AJPH.2006.102947 Projecting Heat-Related
Mortality Impacts Under a Changing Climate in
the New York City Region

Kim Knowlton 1*, Barry Lynn 2, Richard A.
Goldberg 2, Cynthia Rosenzweig 2, Christian
Hogrefe 3, Joyce Klein Rosenthal 4, Patrick L.
Kinney 1

1 Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia
University, NY, NY 2 Goddard Institute for Space
Studies at Columbia University, Ctr for Climate
Systems Research, NY, NY 3 Atmospheric Sciences
Research Center, University at Albany, Albany,
NY 4 Graduate School of Architecture, Planning
and Preservation, Columbia University, NY, NY

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
E-mail: .

Abstract
Objectives. We sought to project future impacts
of climate change on summer heat-related
premature deaths in the New York City
metropolitan region.

Methods. Current and future climates were
simulated over the northeastern United States
with a global-to-regional climate modeling
system. Summer heat-related premature deaths in
the 1990s and 2050s were estimated by using a
range of scenarios and approaches to modeling
acclimatization (e.g., increased use of air
conditioning, gradual physiological adaptation).

Results. Projected regional increases in
heat-related premature mortality by the 2050s
ranged from 47% to 95%, with a mean 70% increase
compared with the 1990s. Acclimatization effects
reduced regional increases in summer
heat-related premature mortality by about 25%.
Local impacts varied considerably across the
region, with urban counties showing greater
numbers of deaths and smaller percentage
increases than less-urbanized counties.

Conclusions. Although considerable uncertainty
exists in climate forecasts and future health
vulnerability, the range of projections we
developed suggests that by midcentury,
acclimatization may not completely mitigate the
effects of climate change in the New York City
metropolitan region, which would result in an
overall net increase in heat-related premature
mortality.


http://www.ajph.org/cgi/content/abst....2006.102947v1

=-=-=-=
Also see:


http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/...n3314254.shtml

If the AGWers want something new to worry about,
they can worry about Global Cooling instead - or
also.

Following is an article by Josie Glausiusz which
appears in the October, 2007 issue of "Discover
Magazine"


"A COLD LOOK AT WAR

THE STUDY "Climate Change and War Frequency in
Eastern China Over the Last Millennium," by David
Zhang et al., published in the August 2007 issue
of Human Ecology.

THE MOTIVE In a study of more than 900 years of
conflict in eastern China, a team of researchers
has tested the hypothesis that cold spells fuel
the social instability that leads to war.

THE METHODS Earth scientist David Zhang of the
University of Hong Kong and his colleagues
consulted a multivolume compendium, "The
Tabulation of Wars in Ancient China", which
records wars in China between 800 B.C. and A.D.
1911.**They*focused*on*the*899*wars*that*took
place between the years 1000 and 1911 in densely
populated eastern China.
**The*researchers*then*compared*the*historical
record with climate data for the same period.**In
the past decade, paleoclimatologists have
reconstructed a record of climate change over the
millennium by consulting historical documents and
examining indicators of temperature change like
tree rings, as well as oxygen isotopes in ice
cores and coral skeletons.**By*combining*data
from multiple studies, Zhang and his colleagues
identified six major cycles of warm and cold
phases from 1000 to 1911. The team then tabulated
the frequency of wars and grouped them into three
classes: very high (more than 30 wars per
decade), high (15 to 30 wars per decade), and low
(fewer than 15 wars per decade.)**All*four
decades of "very high" warfare, as well as most
periods of "high" conflict, coincided with cold
phases.**The*link*was*most*pronounced*in*the
south, perhaps because of its greater population
density as well as southern migration due to the
cold.
**Two*especially*frigid*periods*(1448-1487)*and
(1583-1717) stand out.**During*the*first*period,
many regions of china suffered huge famines, and
authorities of the Ming dynasty quashed
rebellions in numerous provinces.**At*the
beginning of the second cold era, heavy rains and
sever floods devastated agricultural production,
and during the subsequent famine people were
forced to eat tree bark and even seeds from the
excrement of wild geese.**Later,*between*1620*and
1640, earth's temperature fell to its lowest
point since the beginning of the millennium.**In*
china, major floods followed extreme droughts, and
frequent famines led to mass starvation and
death.**In*1644,*a*peasand*rebel*leader*marched
into the capital and captured Beijing,**Finally,
a Manchu invasion ended the Ming regime.

THE MEANING During warm periods, Zhang explains,
populations increased, but the conditions brought
on by cold phases--shorter growing seasons, less
land available for cultivation, a shortage of
forage for domestic animals, and lower
agriculture yields--could not sustain them.**The
shortages fueled peasant unrest, which
destabilized regimes.**Nearly*all*China's
dynastic changes too place during the cold
spells.
**Zhang*believes*his*work*has*relevance*for*a
warming world.**Global*temperatures*are*expected
to rise faster and faster in the future, and our
expanded population may be unable to adapt to the
ecological changes.**"Animals*can*adapt*to
climate change, mainly by relying on migration,
depopulation--which consists of starvation and
cannibalism--and dietary change," he explains.
"Human beings have more adaptive choices and
social mechanisms, such as birth control, trade,
and scientific innovation.**Some*of*these*social
mechanisms are good for humanity and some are
bad, such as war.**The*war*is*just*like*the
cannibalism of animals." "