A projected mean increase of 70% human mortality over
1990 levels by mid-century.
=-=-=-=-=
American Journal of Public Health, 10.2105/AJPH.2006.102947
Projecting Heat-Related Mortality Impacts Under a Changing Climate in
the New York City Region

Kim Knowlton 1*, Barry Lynn 2, Richard A. Goldberg 2, Cynthia
Rosenzweig 2, Christian Hogrefe 3, Joyce Klein Rosenthal 4, Patrick L.
Kinney 1

1 Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, NY, NY
2 Goddard Institute for Space Studies at Columbia University, Ctr for
Climate Systems Research, NY, NY
3 Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, Albany,
NY
4 Graduate School of Architecture, Planning and Preservation, Columbia
University, NY, NY

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail:
.

Abstract
Objectives. We sought to project future impacts of climate change on
summer heat-related premature deaths in the New York City metropolitan
region.

Methods. Current and future climates were simulated over the
northeastern United States with a global-to-regional climate modeling
system. Summer heat-related premature deaths in the 1990s and 2050s
were estimated by using a range of scenarios and approaches to
modeling acclimatization (e.g., increased use of air conditioning,
gradual physiological adaptation).

Results. Projected regional increases in heat-related premature
mortality by the 2050s ranged from 47% to 95%, with a mean 70%
increase compared with the 1990s. Acclimatization effects reduced
regional increases in summer heat-related premature mortality by about
25%. Local impacts varied considerably across the region, with urban
counties showing greater numbers of deaths and smaller percentage
increases than less-urbanized counties.

Conclusions. Although considerable uncertainty exists in climate
forecasts and future health vulnerability, the range of projections we
developed suggests that by midcentury, acclimatization may not
completely mitigate the effects of climate change in the New York City
metropolitan region, which would result in an overall net increase in
heat-related premature mortality.

http://www.ajph.org/cgi/content/abst....2006.102947v1

=-=-=-=
Also see:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/...n3314254.shtml

Roger Coppock wrote:

A projected mean increase of 70% human mortality
over 1990 levels by mid-century.
=-=-=-=-=
American Journal of Public Health,
10.2105/AJPH.2006.102947 Projecting Heat-Related
Mortality Impacts Under a Changing Climate in
the New York City Region

Kim Knowlton 1*, Barry Lynn 2, Richard A.
Goldberg 2, Cynthia Rosenzweig 2, Christian
Hogrefe 3, Joyce Klein Rosenthal 4, Patrick L.
Kinney 1

1 Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia
University, NY, NY 2 Goddard Institute for Space
Studies at Columbia University, Ctr for Climate
Systems Research, NY, NY 3 Atmospheric Sciences
Research Center, University at Albany, Albany,
NY 4 Graduate School of Architecture, Planning
and Preservation, Columbia University, NY, NY

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
E-mail: .

Abstract
Objectives. We sought to project future impacts
of climate change on summer heat-related
premature deaths in the New York City
metropolitan region.

Methods. Current and future climates were
simulated over the northeastern United States
with a global-to-regional climate modeling
system. Summer heat-related premature deaths in
the 1990s and 2050s were estimated by using a
range of scenarios and approaches to modeling
acclimatization (e.g., increased use of air
conditioning, gradual physiological adaptation).

Results. Projected regional increases in
heat-related premature mortality by the 2050s
ranged from 47% to 95%, with a mean 70% increase
compared with the 1990s. Acclimatization effects
reduced regional increases in summer
heat-related premature mortality by about 25%.
Local impacts varied considerably across the
region, with urban counties showing greater
numbers of deaths and smaller percentage
increases than less-urbanized counties.

Conclusions. Although considerable uncertainty
exists in climate forecasts and future health
vulnerability, the range of projections we
developed suggests that by midcentury,
acclimatization may not completely mitigate the
effects of climate change in the New York City
metropolitan region, which would result in an
overall net increase in heat-related premature
mortality.


http://www.ajph.org/cgi/content/abst....2006.102947v1

=-=-=-=
Also see:


http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/...n3314254.shtml

If the AGWers want something new to worry about,
they can worry about Global Cooling instead - or
also.

Following is an article by Josie Glausiusz which
appears in the October, 2007 issue of "Discover
Magazine"


"A COLD LOOK AT WAR

THE STUDY "Climate Change and War Frequency in
Eastern China Over the Last Millennium," by David
Zhang et al., published in the August 2007 issue
of Human Ecology.

THE MOTIVE In a study of more than 900 years of
conflict in eastern China, a team of researchers
has tested the hypothesis that cold spells fuel
the social instability that leads to war.

THE METHODS Earth scientist David Zhang of the
University of Hong Kong and his colleagues
consulted a multivolume compendium, "The
Tabulation of Wars in Ancient China", which
records wars in China between 800 B.C. and A.D.
1911.**They*focused*on*the*899*wars*that*took
place between the years 1000 and 1911 in densely
populated eastern China.
**The*researchers*then*compared*the*historical
record with climate data for the same period.**In
the past decade, paleoclimatologists have
reconstructed a record of climate change over the
millennium by consulting historical documents and
examining indicators of temperature change like
tree rings, as well as oxygen isotopes in ice
cores and coral skeletons.**By*combining*data
from multiple studies, Zhang and his colleagues
identified six major cycles of warm and cold
phases from 1000 to 1911. The team then tabulated
the frequency of wars and grouped them into three
classes: very high (more than 30 wars per
decade), high (15 to 30 wars per decade), and low
(fewer than 15 wars per decade.)**All*four
decades of "very high" warfare, as well as most
periods of "high" conflict, coincided with cold
phases.**The*link*was*most*pronounced*in*the
south, perhaps because of its greater population
density as well as southern migration due to the
cold.
**Two*especially*frigid*periods*(1448-1487)*and
(1583-1717) stand out.**During*the*first*period,
many regions of china suffered huge famines, and
authorities of the Ming dynasty quashed
rebellions in numerous provinces.**At*the
beginning of the second cold era, heavy rains and
sever floods devastated agricultural production,
and during the subsequent famine people were
forced to eat tree bark and even seeds from the
excrement of wild geese.**Later,*between*1620*and
1640, earth's temperature fell to its lowest
point since the beginning of the millennium.**In*
china, major floods followed extreme droughts, and
frequent famines led to mass starvation and
death.**In*1644,*a*peasand*rebel*leader*marched
into the capital and captured Beijing,**Finally,
a Manchu invasion ended the Ming regime.

THE MEANING During warm periods, Zhang explains,
populations increased, but the conditions brought
on by cold phases--shorter growing seasons, less
land available for cultivation, a shortage of
forage for domestic animals, and lower
agriculture yields--could not sustain them.**The
shortages fueled peasant unrest, which
destabilized regimes.**Nearly*all*China's
dynastic changes too place during the cold
spells.
**Zhang*believes*his*work*has*relevance*for*a
warming world.**Global*temperatures*are*expected
to rise faster and faster in the future, and our
expanded population may be unable to adapt to the
ecological changes.**"Animals*can*adapt*to
climate change, mainly by relying on migration,
depopulation--which consists of starvation and
cannibalism--and dietary change," he explains.
"Human beings have more adaptive choices and
social mechanisms, such as birth control, trade,
and scientific innovation.**Some*of*these*social
mechanisms are good for humanity and some are
bad, such as war.**The*war*is*just*like*the
cannibalism of animals." "

On Oct 2, 5:30 pm, Roger Coppock wrote:
A projected mean increase of 70% human mortality over
1990 levels by mid-century.


Results. Projected regional increases in heat-related premature
mortality by the 2050s ranged from 47% to 95%, with a mean 70%
increase compared with the 1990s. Acclimatization effects reduced
regional increases in summer heat-related premature mortality by about
25%. Local impacts varied considerably across the region, with urban
counties showing greater numbers of deaths and smaller percentage
increases than less-urbanized counties.

Conclusions. Although considerable uncertainty exists in climate
forecasts and future health vulnerability, the range of projections we
developed suggests that by midcentury, acclimatization may not
completely mitigate the effects of climate change in the New York City
metropolitan region, which would result in an overall net increase in
heat-related premature mortality.

http://www.ajph.org/cgi/content/abst....2006.102947v1

=-=-=-=
Also see:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/...n3314254.shtml

Has the reduction in Cold related deaths as the climate warms been
projected ?
There are many many more deaths in cold winters than in hot summers in
the UK

On Oct 2, 9:57 am, chemist wrote:
[ . . . ]
There are many many more deaths in cold winters than in hot summers in
the UK

The source of the highly questionable statement above is . . .

On Oct 2, 6:01 pm, Roger Coppock wrote:
On Oct 2, 9:57 am, chemist wrote:
[ . . . ]

There are many many more deaths in cold winters than in hot summers in
the UK

The source of the highly questionable statement above is . . .

IT IS OBVIOUS. Most of all my acquaintances have relatives who
died in winter. None have died from heat stroke, you daft bat.

On Oct 2, 7:33 pm, chemist wrote:
On Oct 2, 6:01 pm, Roger Coppock wrote:
On Oct 2, 9:57 am, chemist wrote:
[ . . . ]

There are many many more deaths in cold winters than in hot summers in
the UK

The source of the highly questionable statement above is . . .

IT IS OBVIOUS. Most of all my acquaintances have relatives who
died in winter. None have died from heat stroke, you daft bat.

We already know you're not a chemist. LOL!
Now you show us you're not a scientist too.

Look up the word "anecdotal" as in the phrase
"anecdotal evidence." Then, understand why
scientists totally reject using it.

If you can suppress your overlarge ego long
enough to learn that rather basic lesson,
then get some real data to support your
statement about seasonal mortality.

"Roger Coppock" wrote:
On Oct 2, 7:33 pm, chemist wrote:
On Oct 2, 6:01 pm, Roger Coppock wrote:
On Oct 2, 9:57 am, chemist wrote:
[ . . . ]

There are many many more deaths in cold winters than in hot summers
in
the UK

The source of the highly questionable statement above is . . .

IT IS OBVIOUS. Most of all my acquaintances have relatives who
died in winter. None have died from heat stroke, you daft bat.

We already know you're not a chemist. LOL!
Now you show us you're not a scientist too.

Look up the word "anecdotal" as in the phrase
"anecdotal evidence." Then, understand why
scientists totally reject using it.

That's not quite true; a prioi rejection of anecdotal evidence
is dogma. It is very often anecdotal evidence that draws the
attention of scientists to anomalies that are only later found
to be worthy of investigation.

If you can suppress your overlarge ego long
enough to learn that rather basic lesson,
then get some real data to support your
statement about seasonal mortality.

--
altheim

On Oct 3, 6:54 am, Roger Coppock wrote:
On Oct 2, 7:33 pm, chemist wrote:

On Oct 2, 6:01 pm, Roger Coppock wrote:
On Oct 2, 9:57 am, chemist wrote:
[ . . . ]

There are many many more deaths in cold winters than in hot summers in
the UK

The source of the highly questionable statement above is . . .

Since you ask - the WHO and the BMA amongst other studies.

Maximum summer temperatures in the UK seldom top 25C for more than a
few days at a time. Cold dark damp winters hovering around 0C for
weeks are much more of a threat to health. The UK has one of the
highest excess winter death rates of all European countries (about
40000 extra annually). See:

http://www.euro.who.int/Housing/Activities/20041013_3

I can't immediately find a free access version of the full UK monthly
stats, but they peak around January and are lowest in August. Stroke
and then influenza are the most seasonally affected causes of death.

France and Paris in particular was caught out by a serious summer
heatwave that coincided with their national holiday weeks. But the
cooler UK climate just had a nice long warm summer.

IT IS OBVIOUS. Most of all my acquaintances have relatives who
died in winter. None have died from heat stroke, you daft bat.

We already know you're not a chemist. LOL!
Now you show us you're not a scientist too.

Be careful. The evidence here is stacked against you. Remember that
the UK is an island with a maritime climate at latitudes 50-55N and
warmed by the Gulf stream. It is much milder than you might expect.

Regards,
Martin Brown

On Oct 3, 2:23 am, Martin Brown
wrote:

http://www.euro.who.int/Housing/Activities/20041013_3

Well, at least you offer solid evidence. The fossil
fools on this newsgroup seldom have anything to back
up their statements. I'd buy into the increased winter
mortality, except for this passage from your link:

"When individual causes are considered, the association is
strongest for myocardial infarction and stroke. Comparison
of monthly mortality rates in different European countries
demonstrated highest mortality rate from all causes in January;
the month with the lowest rate was August. In addition, most
deaths related to "cold exposure" do not take place during or
immediately following exposure, but days later."

The mechanism for the relationship linking myocardial infarction
and stroke to cold temperatures is not explained. There is no
mechanism offered for a delay of days either.

On Oct 3, 1:38 pm, Roger Coppock wrote:
On Oct 3, 2:23 am, Martin Brown
wrote:

http://www.euro.who.int/Housing/Activities/20041013_3

Well, at least you offer solid evidence. The fossil
fools on this newsgroup seldom have anything to back
up their statements. I'd buy into the increased winter
mortality, except for this passage from your link:

"When individual causes are considered, the association is
strongest for myocardial infarction and stroke. Comparison
of monthly mortality rates in different European countries
demonstrated highest mortality rate from all causes in January;
the month with the lowest rate was August. In addition, most
deaths related to "cold exposure" do not take place during or
immediately following exposure, but days later."

You are clutching at straws and it does your argument no good at all.

The mechanism for the relationship linking myocardial infarction
and stroke to cold temperatures is not explained. There is no
mechanism offered for a delay of days either.

I am sure that you are capable of using Google, but just in case here
is chapter and verse. It is well known that several risk factors in
the elderly and infirm tend to make their blood more viscous in
winter. Combine that with the generally increased prevalence of
influenza and colds in the winter and you have a mechanism. See for
example:

http://qjmed.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/...full/92/12/747

The correlation between cold weather and mortality is clear enough.
And the reason they don't die instantly is that modern medicine is
really quite good.

What did surprise me is that the winter excess deaths by stroke also
holds in Australia if the following link is to be believed.

http://www.mydr.com.au/default.asp?article=3872

I had assumed that winter in Australia was a lot warmer, and that heat
stress in summer would be an issue.

Regards,
Martin Brown