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sci.geo.meteorology (Meteorology) (sci.geo.meteorology) For the discussion of meteorology and related topics. |
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#1
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Can anyone out there tear themselves away from cheep
attacks on Al Gore to discuss global warming? -.-. --.- Roger =-=-=-=-=-= September was the 5th warmest on NASA's 128-year Northern Hemisphere Record. Apparently, the fossil fools just decided to make a total break with reality. They don't need real measurements like those reported here. None of those real world data support their Carbon fuel industry master's view of things. Cee-Oh-Too pseudo-science is now replacing real data with cartoons drawn freehand. When pesky data from the world of reality didn't agree with Martin Durkin, the producer had charts for his movie hand drawn. Maybe, that's why he called his global warming movie a 'Great Swindle.' More recently on these forums, when cosmic rays didn't count the way he wanted them too, Peter Muehlbauer turned a graph of real data on its head, and drew the curves that fit his fantasy. Given the URLs to the real cosmic ray data, Peter seems to be too busy dry-labbing to deal with them. Meanwhile, back in the real world, global mean surface temperatures continue to rise. These hemispherically averaged temperature data come from NASA: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/NH.Ts.txt They represent the results of tens of millions of readings taken at thousands of stations covering the lands of the Northern Hemisphere over the last 128 years. Yes, the data are corrected for the urban heat island effect. The Mean September temperature over the last 128 years is 14.047 C. The Variance is 0.09004. The Standard Deviation, or SIGMA, is 0.3001. Rxy 0.68255 Rxy^2 0.4659 TEMP = 13.689584 + (0.005543 * (YEAR-1879)) Degrees of Freedom = 126 F = 109.902019 Confidence of nonzero correlation = approximately 0.999999999999999999 (18 nines) The month of September in the year 2007, is linearly projected to be 14.399, yet it was 14.77. -- 1.2 SIGMA above projection The sum of the residuals is 21.690155 Exponential least squares fit: TEMP = 13.693331 * e^(.0003920 * (YEAR-1879)) The sum of the residuals is 21.659784 Rank of the months of September Year Temp C Anomaly Z score 2005 15.06 1.013 3.38 2006 14.81 0.763 2.54 2003 14.81 0.763 2.54 1998 14.78 0.733 2.44 2007 14.77 0.723 2.41 -- 2002 14.66 0.613 2.04 2004 14.63 0.583 1.94 1995 14.58 0.533 1.78 1999 14.55 0.503 1.68 2001 14.54 0.493 1.64 1991 14.54 0.493 1.64 1997 14.51 0.463 1.54 1937 14.51 0.463 1.54 MEAN 14.047 0.000 0.00 1913 13.71 -0.337 -1.12 1894 13.71 -0.337 -1.12 1972 13.70 -0.347 -1.16 1903 13.70 -0.347 -1.16 1964 13.69 -0.357 -1.19 1956 13.69 -0.357 -1.19 1916 13.69 -0.357 -1.19 1888 13.69 -0.357 -1.19 1887 13.69 -0.357 -1.19 1889 13.67 -0.377 -1.26 1885 13.63 -0.417 -1.39 1904 13.48 -0.567 -1.89 1884 13.47 -0.577 -1.92 1912 13.26 -0.787 -2.62 The most recent 166 continuous months, or 13 years and 10 months, on this NH.Ts.txt data set are all above the 1951-1980 data set norm of 14 C. There are 1533 months of data on this data set: -- 773 of them are at or above the norm. -- 760 of them are below the norm. This run of 166 months above the norm is the result of a warming world. It is too large to occur by chance at any reasonable level of confidence. A major volcano eruption, thermonuclear war, or meteor impact could stop this warming trend for a couple of years, otherwise expect it to continue. |
#2
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R wrote:
Can anyone out there tear themselves away from cheep attacks on Al Gore to discuss global warming? Sure, while I hate to see those seal eating Polar Bears drown because they can only swim a hundred miles or so, and I don't have any idea how global warming would affect other people in the world, but I am all for it, today was about 10 degrees above normal, and if it would be 10 degrees above normal _here_ for the next 5 months, I would be very grateful. |
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