Would any SGMer critique the consensus forecast?

David Christainsen - meteorologist

On Jan 15, 9:51*am, David wrote:
Would any SGMer critique the consensus forecast?

David Christainsen - meteorologist

Which consensus forecast?

Cheers,
Russell

On Jan 15, 1:12*pm, Russell wrote:
On Jan 15, 9:51*am, David wrote:

Would any SGMer critique the consensus forecast?

David Christainsen - meteorologist

Which consensus forecast?

Cheers,
Russell

I'll check the consensus when I get the opportunity.

Right now, I am extremely busy.

Best,
David

On Jan 15, 6:25 pm, David wrote:
On Jan 15, 1:12 pm, Russell wrote:

On Jan 15, 9:51 am, David wrote:

Would any SGMer critique the consensus forecast?

David Christainsen - meteorologist

Which consensus forecast?

I'll check the consensus when I get the opportunity.

Right now, I am extremely busy.

Next.

It's the invisible man

Tell him I can't see him.

On Jan 15, 1:12*pm, Russell wrote:
On Jan 15, 9:51*am, David wrote:

Would any SGMer critique the consensus forecast?

David Christainsen - meteorologist

Which consensus forecast?

Cheers,
Russell

CRWS Jet Stream Map Menu
http://squall.sfsu.edu/crws/jetstream.html

Best,
David

On Jan 16, 4:56*pm, David wrote:
On Jan 15, 1:12*pm, Russell wrote:

On Jan 15, 9:51*am, David wrote:

Would any SGMer critique the consensus forecast?

David Christainsen - meteorologist

Which consensus forecast?

Cheers,
Russell

CRWS Jet Stream Map Menuhttp://squall.sfsu.edu/crws/jetstream.html

Best,
David

I only had a moment to glance at the page, but the jet
stream forecast box only had an "archive" that provided
a clickable link. Can you direct me to the forecast?

Cheers,
Russell

On Jan 16, 5:15*pm, Russell wrote:
On Jan 16, 4:56*pm, David wrote:





On Jan 15, 1:12*pm, Russell wrote:

On Jan 15, 9:51*am, David wrote:

Would any SGMer critique the consensus forecast?

David Christainsen - meteorologist

Which consensus forecast?

Cheers,
Russell

CRWS Jet Stream Map Menuhttp://squall.sfsu.edu/crws/jetstream.html

Best,
David

I only had a moment to glance at the page, but the jet
stream forecast box only had an "archive" that provided
a clickable link. *Can you direct me to the forecast?

Cheers,
Russell- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

So far, I can't find the consensus forecast. I am sorry for
the confusion I caused.

However, I found the following to give the (current) status of
the jet stream -

Jan 16
http://www.weather.com/maps/activity...eam_large.html

I will check government climate center etc. for more on jet stream.

Best,
David

On Thu, 17 Jan 2008 07:11:09 -0800 (PST),
David , in
wrote:

+ However, I found the following to give the (current) status of
+ the jet stream -
+
+ Jan 16
+ http://www.weather.com/maps/activity...eam_large.html

It shows up as a forecast map for 23 Jan. The stamp time *is* 16 Jan.

I'm somewhat dubious that the above will come to pass. To my eye, SFU
analysis maps show an omega block setting up on US west coast, with
resulting stormy weather in the central/gulf/eastern states.

We may even get a "Panhandle hooker" out of the deal...

--
Consulting Minister for Consultants, DNRC
I can please only one person per day. Today is not your day. Tomorrow
isn't looking good, either.
I am BOFH. Resistance is futile. Your network will be assimilated.

On Jan 17, 10:11*am, David wrote:
On Jan 16, 5:15*pm, Russell wrote:





On Jan 16, 4:56*pm, David wrote:

On Jan 15, 1:12*pm, Russell wrote:

On Jan 15, 9:51*am, David wrote:

Would any SGMer critique the consensus forecast?

David Christainsen - meteorologist

Which consensus forecast?

Cheers,
Russell

CRWS Jet Stream Map Menuhttp://squall.sfsu.edu/crws/jetstream.html

Best,
David

I only had a moment to glance at the page, but the jet
stream forecast box only had an "archive" that provided
a clickable link. *Can you direct me to the forecast?

Cheers,
Russell- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

So far, I can't find the consensus forecast. *I am sorry for
the confusion I caused.

However, I found the following to give the (current) status of
the jet stream -

Jan 16http://www.weather.com/maps/activity/aviation/wednesdayusjetstream_la...

I will check government climate center etc. for more on jet stream.

Best,
David- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I agree with Darth, the details of a day 7+ forecast, even for
something as large scale as the jet stream, are iffy. Sometimes
even the overall pattern is significantly wrong. At that sort
of time range, the general features of a time mean forecast like
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/pre...0day/500mb.php
are more reliable, but still generally not perfect (although I
did score a 0.98+ anomaly correlation once). Overall the recent
6 to 10 day outlooks have looked reasonable compared with patterns
I've seen in the past, with the ridge forecast over AK looking
strong enough to be consistent with supercritical flow over the
top that could cut a trough back over CA, but since I left CPC I
don't have access to some of the tools I'd used to use to make
such assessments. I notice that today's 6 to 10 day mean 500 mb
forecast flattens the ridge somewhat compared to the past couple
of days, FWIW.

Cheers,
Russell