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#1
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Global Temperature Trends: 2007 Summation
The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a remarkable 0.2°C above the prior record with the help of the "El Niņo of the century". The unusual warmth in 2007 is noteworthy because it occurs at a time when solar irradiance is at a minimum and the equatorial Pacific Ocean is in the cool phase of its natural El Niņo- La Niņa cycle. Figure 1 (Please see: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/20...2007annual.gif ) shows 2007 temperature anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 base period mean. The global mean temperature anomaly, 0.57°C (about 1°F) warmer than the 1951-1980 mean, continues the strong warming trend of the past thirty years that has been confidently attributed to the effect of increasing human-made greenhouse gases (GHGs) (Hansen et al. 2007). The eight warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since 1998, and the 14 warmest years in the record have all occurred since 1990. Arctic Warmth The map reveals that the greatest warming has been in the Arctic and neighboring high latitude regions. Polar amplification is an expected characteristic of global warming, as the loss of ice and snow engenders a positive feedback via increased absorption of sunlight. The large Arctic warm anomaly of 2007 is consistent with observed record low Arctic sea ice cover in September 2007. [ . . . ] Summary The Southern Oscillation and the solar cycle have significant effects on year-to-year global temperature change. Because both of these natural effects were in their cool phases in 2007, the unusual warmth of 2007 is all the more notable. It is apparent that there is no letup in the steep global warming trend of the past 30 years (see 5-year mean curve in Figure 1a). "Global warming stopped in 1998," has become a recent mantra of those who wish to deny the reality of human-caused global warming. The continued rapid increase of the five-year running mean temperature exposes this assertion as nonsense. In reality, global temperature jumped two standard deviations above the trend line in 1998 because the "El Niņo of the century" coincided with the calendar year, but there has been no lessening of the underlying warming trend. Global Predictions The quasi-regularity of some natural climate forcing mechanisms, combined with knowledge of human-made forcings, allows projection of near-term global temperature trends with reasonably high confidence. Prediction for a specific year is a bit hazardous, as evidenced by an incorrect prediction of record global warmth made by the British climate analysis group for 2007. Such speculations are useful, as they draw attention to the mechanisms, and allow testing of understanding. Presumably part of the basis for their prediction was an assumption of a continued warming contribution from the 2006 El Niņo. However, evidence of El Niņo warmth disappeared very early in 2007. Solar irradiance will still be on or near its flat-bottomed minimum in 2008. Temperature tendency associated with the solar cycle, because of the Earth's thermal inertia, has its minimum delayed by almost a quarter cycle, i.e., about two years. Thus solar change should not contribute significantly to temperature change in 2008. La Niņa cooling in the second half of 2007 (Figure 2) is about as intense as the regional cooling associated with any La Niņa of the past half century, as shown by comparison to Plate 9 in Hansen et al. (Hansen et al. 1999) and updates to Plate 9 on the GISS web site. Effect of the current La Niņa on global surface temperature is likely to continue for at least the first several months of 2008. Based on sequences of Pacific Ocean surface temperature patterns in Plate 9, a next El Niņo in 2009 or 2010 is perhaps the most likely timing. But whatever year it occurs, it is a pretty safe bet that the next El Niņo will help carry global temperature to a significantly higher level. Competing with the short-term solar and La Niņa cooling effects is the long-term global warming effect of human-made GHGs. The latter includes the trend toward less Arctic sea ice that markedly increases high latitude Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Although sea ice cover fluctuates from year to year, the large recent loss of thick multi- year ice implies that this warming effect at high latitudes should persist. Based on these considerations, it is unlikely that 2008 will be a year with truly exceptional global mean temperature. These considerations also suggest that, barring the unlikely event of a large volcanic eruption, a record global temperature clearly exceeding that of 2005 can be expected within the next 2-3 years. [ . . . ] http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/ |
#2
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![]() The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a The use of that data has been thoroughly debunked on these newsgroups. Roger I do this, discuss AGW, as a hobby while surfing the Internet, and I can state with great certainty that carbon dioxide acts, globally, as a coolant. In much the same way as it was once used in refrigeration. |
#3
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#4
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The use of that data has been thoroughly debunked on these
newsgroups. So? Where is it published? On the Internet. http://people.dsv.su.se/~jpalme/e-ma...enet-news.html I can state with great certainty that carbon dioxide acts, globally, as a coolant. Interesting, explain please? Pay me first. It is a coolant if you have it in liquid form and let it loose at 1 atmospheric pressure. And exactly where in nature will you find carbon dioxide in that state? http://scifun.chem.wisc.edu/chemweek...se_diagram.gif In the atmosphere it is the key green house gas, like in Venus! Earth is spherical (round) like Venus, and that's about all it's like. |
#5
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![]() wrote in message ... The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a The use of that data has been thoroughly debunked on these newsgroups. Bull****. Roger I do this, discuss AGW, as a hobby while surfing the Internet, and I can state with great certainty that carbon dioxide acts, globally, as a coolant. Bull****. In much the same way as it was once used in refrigeration. Bull****. |
#6
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![]() wrote in message ... The use of that data has been thoroughly debunked on these newsgroups. So? Where is it published? On the Internet. http://people.dsv.su.se/~jpalme/e-ma...enet-news.html In other words, by k00ks. I can state with great certainty that carbon dioxide acts, globally, as a coolant. Interesting, explain please? Pay me first. To lie? Good luck with that, chief. It is a coolant if you have it in liquid form and let it loose at 1 atmospheric pressure. And exactly where in nature will you find carbon dioxide in that state? Precisely. And that's how it's used as a coolant. Which makes your above statement bull****. http://scifun.chem.wisc.edu/chemweek...se_diagram.gif In the atmosphere it is the key green house gas, like in Venus! Earth is spherical (round) like Venus, and that's about all it's like. translation: ga ga goo goo |
#7
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Your strategy is to make a lot of noise,
as many outrageous statements as you can. On Feb 14, 8:26*am, wrote: The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a The use of that data has been thoroughly debunked on these newsgroups. Ha! Ha! Dream on. GISS data are solid. What's more, they have high correlations with other measures of global mean surface temperature. Roger I do this, discuss AGW, as a hobby while surfing the Internet, How much are you paid for your hobby? and I can state with great certainty that carbon dioxide acts, globally, as a coolant. *In much the same way as it was once used in refrigeration. REALLY NOW! Where then is all the frozen CO2 on our planet? |
#8
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On Feb 14, 8:23 pm, Roger Coppock wrote:
Your strategy is to make a lot of noise, as many outrageous statements as you can. On Feb 14, 8:26 am, wrote: The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a The use of that data has been thoroughly debunked on these newsgroups. Ha! Ha! Dream on. GISS data are solid. What's more, they have high correlations with other measures of global mean surface temperature. Roger I do this, discuss AGW, as a hobby while surfing the Internet, How much are you paid for your hobby? and I can state with great certainty that carbon dioxide acts, globally, as a coolant. In much the same way as it was once used in refrigeration. REALLY NOW! Where then is all the frozen CO2 on our planet? Why do you not answer my question ? Are the experiments detailed at http://www.chemsoc.org/networks/lear...green/home.htm http://www.nagt.org/files/nagt/jge/a..._v49n3p274.pdf http://www.espere.net/Unitedkingdom/...greenhouse.htm Pseudo Science. |
#9
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![]() "chemist" wrote in message ... On Feb 14, 8:23 pm, Roger Coppock wrote: Your strategy is to make a lot of noise, as many outrageous statements as you can. On Feb 14, 8:26 am, wrote: The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a The use of that data has been thoroughly debunked on these newsgroups. Ha! Ha! Dream on. GISS data are solid. What's more, they have high correlations with other measures of global mean surface temperature. Roger I do this, discuss AGW, as a hobby while surfing the Internet, How much are you paid for your hobby? and I can state with great certainty that carbon dioxide acts, globally, as a coolant. In much the same way as it was once used in refrigeration. REALLY NOW! Where then is all the frozen CO2 on our planet? Why do you not answer my question ? Are the experiments detailed at http://www.chemsoc.org/networks/lear...green/home.htm http://www.nagt.org/files/nagt/jge/a..._v49n3p274.pdf http://www.espere.net/Unitedkingdom/...greenhouse.htm Pseudo Science. "Denialism is the employment of rhetorical tactics to give the appearance of argument or legitimate debate, when in actuality there is none. These false arguments are used when one has few or no facts to support one's viewpoint against a scientific consensus or against overwhelming evidence to the contrary. They are effective in distracting from actual useful debate using emotionally appealing, but ultimately empty and illogical assertions..." http://scienceblogs.com/denialism/about.php |
#10
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![]() It is a coolant if you have it in liquid form and let it loose at 1 atmospheric pressure. And exactly where in nature will you find carbon dioxide in that state? Precisely. And that's how it's used as a coolant. Precisely ![]() |
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