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sci.geo.meteorology (Meteorology) (sci.geo.meteorology) For the discussion of meteorology and related topics. |
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#21
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On Mar 12, 5:04*pm, "James" wrote:
"Roger Coppock" wrote in message ... If you wonder why no one respects your views enought to debate you, here is one reason why, Dunderbar. On Mar 11, 1:03 pm, Tunderbar wrote: [ . . . ] If that was a valid point then the fact that the last 7 or 8 years show no upward trend must be pretty strong evidence against agw. A LIE! *Last 8 years show an upward trend on the 0.95 level. The Mean Yearly temperature over the last 8 years is 14.518 C. The Variance is 0.00674. The Standard Deviation is 0.0821. Rxy 0.69754 * Rxy^2 0.486562 TEMP = 14.405 + (0.025 * (YEAR-1999)) Degrees of Freedom = 6 * * * * F = 5.685921 Confidence of nonzero correlation = 0.945568280 The sum of the residuals is 0.43 YEAR *TEMP 2000 *14.33 2001 *14.48 2002 *14.56 2003 *14.55 2004 *14.49 2005 *14.62 2006 *14.54 Those are your numbers aren't they? Roger's statistics illustrate an important scientific principle. Rubbish in, rubbish out. Or to be more specific, cooked data in, cooked statistics out. |
#22
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On 11 Mar, 23:21, Roger Coppock wrote:
On Mar 11, 2:01*pm, matt_sykes wrote: [ . . . ] I wish I got paid as much as Hansen for lying. So then, you admit that you're paid for lying, Matt! You argue like a 12 year old Roger. |
#23
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On 11/03/08 23:41, in article
, "Roger Coppock" wrote: YEAR TEMP 2000 14.33 2001 14.48 2002 14.56 2003 14.55 2004 14.49 2005 14.62 2006 14.54 The monthly graph has just been updated for February http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.C.lrg.gif The anomaly for February is up from January from about 0.1 to 0.25 and well within the range of the fluctuations of the last 10 years. The point is that one can not visually see a net warming or cooling over the last 10 years (the deniers would like the latter) and of course, like you did, one must rely on a statistical analysis to the warming trend for the last 10 years. Next, climate scientists never anticipated a smooth warming curve. The big problem is the ocean with cooler waters beneath and circulation which can brings these waters to the surface. This could have a temporary cooling effect on the world climate. But as long as the combined forcings are positive, eventual warming will catch up. When the temperature rises high enough and the GHG levels become static, those forcings are at zero and the temperature changes drop to zero over the long run. However year by year fluctuations remain pretty much the same. as we see in the cited graph. We have a scientifically interesting period ahead of us. The Arctic sea ice is unusually still increasing when they should be decreasing at this time of year. The huge anomaly deficit which occurred last summer appears, superficially, to have been cancelled out. But this increase now is obviously new ice (see http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosph...urrent.365.jpg) But the increases are all occurring in areas which are devoid of summer ice. We will see in September if any of the new ice survives. |
#24
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matt_sykes wrote:
On 11 Mar, 23:21, Roger Coppock wrote: On Mar 11, 2:01 pm, matt_sykes wrote: [ . . . ] I wish I got paid as much as Hansen for lying. You get paid for the quality of your work, he must be a better liar than you. So then, you admit that you're paid for lying, Matt! You argue like a 12 year old Roger. |
#25
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James wrote:
"Roger Coppock" wrote in message ... February was 26th warmest on the 129-year record. Although February is the second month below the trend, it remains 0.88 standard deviations above the mean. In the long term therefore, global mean surface temperatures continue to rise. Until one can name all the factors involved in climate change, (natural as well as human produced), the degree of each factor and it's interaction with others as to climate, there is no verifiable conclusion of anthropic means being a major causation of climate change. But there's a real good chance that people can slow down the warming. Perhaps we should act now and fix blame later... |
#26
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On 12 Mar, 14:19, dave wrote:
James wrote: But there's a real good chance that people can slow down the warming. Perhaps we should act now and fix blame later...- Hide quoted text - Since its dropped 0.7 `C in a year, the biggest recorded drop, do you really want make it any cooler, any quicker? |
#27
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Thank you Roger. This new data for February confirms my suspicion
that AGW is a total crock of ****. |
#28
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It's all in the spin.
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#29
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On 12/03/08 15:29, in article
, "matt_sykes" wrote: Since its dropped 0.7 `C in a year, the biggest recorded drop, do you really want make it any cooler, any quicker? More like 0.8°C if you take the high and low points http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.C.lrg.gif fràm the beginning of 2007. From the beginning of 1998 to the beginning of 2000 the same amount. From the beginning of 2000 to 2002 it went up 0.8°C. So don't cherry pick. Take a broad view. |
#30
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Earl Evleth wrote:
On 12/03/08 15:29, in article , "matt_sykes" wrote: Since its dropped 0.7 `C in a year, the biggest recorded drop, do you really want make it any cooler, any quicker? More like 0.8°C if you take the high and low points http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.C.lrg.gif fràm the beginning of 2007. From the beginning of 1998 to the beginning of 2000 the same amount. From the beginning of 2000 to 2002 it went up 0.8°C. So don't cherry pick. Take a broad view. Don't cherry pick. Look at the Geologic record. Take a longer view. |
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