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Below, Bonzo quotes a false statement.
It's typical of industry lobbyists to make false statements and assume that no one will do the math to verify them. Sunspots are almost totally irrelevant to the observed warming of the last century. Don't be distracted, the major cause of the recent warming is increasing CO2 in the atmosphere. On Jun 16, 6:39 pm, "0ZNB0" wrote: [ . . . ] Historically, such long-duration, high-intensity solar cycles have been excellent predictors of weak cycles and miserable weather for the next twenty-five to thirty years. Why this should be so is an issue over The Sunspot Scapegoat Fossil fools, in their never ending search for something other than their master's oil and coal products that is the major cause of global warming, often blame sunspots. They produce cherry picked proxy series and collections of anecdotes to try to support this. However, directly observed data tell a different story. Actual sunspot count data barely show any correlation with the global land and sea surface temperature from 1880 to 2007. Even when you autocorrelate out 12 years, looking for an effect of today's sunspots on tomorrow's temperature, there is no strong relationship between sunspots and global mean surface temperature, R^20.1. Sunspots are for all practical purposes irrelevant to the global warming debate. 1880-2007 Lag in years Vs. R squared. Lag: 0 R^2: 0.0579 Lag: 1 R^2: 0.0743 Lag: 2 R^2: 0.0816 Lag: 3 R^2: 0.079 Lag: 4 R^2: 0.0783 Lag: 5 R^2: 0.0799 Lag: 6 R^2: 0.0722 Lag: 7 R^2: 0.0575 Lag: 8 R^2: 0.0453 Lag: 9 R^2: 0.0518 Lag: 10 R^2: 0.0602 Lag: 11 R^2: 0.0708 Lag: 12 R^2: 0.0794 -.-. --.- Roger Coppock (Those who are new to statistical correlation and "R squared" will find a tutorial on the subject he http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Correlation.html http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Correla...efficient.html Item 20 in the above shows R squared for several graphed relationships.) - - - - In the data table below: Year AnnMean YearlySunSpots 1880 13.75 32.242 1881 13.8 54.308 1882 13.78 59.608 1883 13.76 63.633 1884 13.7 63.508 1885 13.69 51.958 1886 13.75 25.425 1887 13.65 13.05 1888 13.73 6.75 1889 13.85 6.2167 1890 13.63 7.05 1891 13.72 35.625 1892 13.68 72.942 1893 13.68 85.083 1894 13.67 78.008 1895 13.73 63.967 1896 13.83 41.808 1897 13.88 26.242 1898 13.75 26.717 1899 13.83 12.108 1900 13.9 9.4583 1901 13.84 2.7417 1902 13.73 5.05 1903 13.69 24.383 1904 13.66 41.95 1905 13.75 63.467 1906 13.8 53.858 1907 13.61 62.033 1908 13.66 48.542 1909 13.65 43.883 1910 13.67 18.583 1911 13.66 5.7 1912 13.66 3.5917 1913 13.69 1.4417 1914 13.85 9.5917 1915 13.91 47.367 1916 13.7 57.067 1917 13.61 103.89 1918 13.68 80.575 1919 13.8 63.608 1920 13.81 37.642 1921 13.87 26.133 1922 13.76 14.242 1923 13.79 5.775 1924 13.79 16.717 1925 13.84 44.308 1926 13.99 63.883 1927 13.87 69.042 1928 13.89 77.8 1929 13.75 64.858 1930 13.93 35.725 1931 13.99 21.225 1932 13.94 11.142 1933 13.83 5.6583 1934 13.95 8.7167 1935 13.9 36.033 1936 13.97 79.733 1937 14.08 114.4 1938 14.11 109.55 1939 14.03 88.75 1940 14.05 67.783 1941 14.11 47.483 1942 14.04 30.6 1943 14.1 16.325 1944 14.21 9.5917 1945 14.07 33.092 1946 13.96 92.508 1947 14.01 151.51 1948 13.97 136.2 1949 13.94 135.12 1950 13.85 83.925 1951 13.96 69.425 1952 14.03 31.408 1953 14.11 13.85 1954 13.9 4.4083 1955 13.9 37.95 1956 13.83 141.71 1957 14.08 189.85 1958 14.08 184.59 1959 14.06 158.75 1960 13.99 112.28 1961 14.08 53.883 1962 14.04 37.6 1963 14.08 27.892 1964 13.79 10.2 1965 13.89 15.058 1966 13.97 46.875 1967 14. 93.667 1968 13.96 105.89 1969 14.08 105.56 1970 14.03 104.69 1971 13.9 66.65 1972 14. 68.933 1973 14.14 38.15 1974 13.92 34.408 1975 13.95 15.458 1976 13.84 12.55 1977 14.13 27.483 1978 14.02 92.658 1979 14.09 155.28 1980 14.18 154.65 1981 14.27 140.45 1982 14.05 116.29 1983 14.26 66.633 1984 14.09 45.85 1985 14.06 17.942 1986 14.13 13.4 1987 14.27 29.225 1988 14.31 100. 1989 14.19 157.79 1990 14.38 142.29 1991 14.35 145.78 1992 14.13 94.483 1993 14.14 54.733 1994 14.24 29.867 1995 14.38 17.5 1996 14.3 8.625 1997 14.4 21.483 1998 14.57 64.208 1999 14.33 93.175 2000 14.33 119.53 2001 14.48 110.93 2002 14.56 104.09 2003 14.55 63.567 2004 14.49 40.442 2005 14.62 29.783 2006 14.54 15.183 2007 14.57 7.5 "AnnMean" is the J-D yearly mean of the NASA GISS "GLB.Ts+dSST.txt" file, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ta...LB.Ts+dSST.txt "YearlySunSpots" is the mean of the monthly means in the NOAA NGDC "MONTHLY" file. Available at the FTP site accessed through this web page: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/SSN/ssn.html |
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